2020 General Election Thread

Artful Revealer

Artful Revealer

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Wtf was that Biden speech about, claiming victory in the rust belt when Trump’s ahead 15 points in PA en 9 in Michigan?

They setting up contested election results.
 
R

Riptide

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Aero

Aero

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Maybe the libs try to contest the results. I think they are dragging it out for advertising dollars. Now maybe that isn't price gauging per se, but it's pretty damn close. Besides, you never know with all the new normals going on.
 
C

Corvus Metus

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seekinheart said:
im pretty stupid here but what does this mean, im confused, why would post ballots be a disadvantage to trump?
Click to expand...
Based on a lot of sources, Democrats were more likely to mail in their vote that Republicans, especially since Trump was pushing the fraud narrative so heavily.
 
T

The Zone

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So, Biden makes a move while America was asleep... as of 20 minutes ago, Biden is a solid favorite. Strange turnabout or was it?

2020 Election Odds Updates
6:15 a.m. ET
The tides appear to be turning (again) in this race. Joe Biden started the day as a big favorite before plummeting to as low as a 25.8% chance to win at 10 p.m. ET. Now? He’s the odds-on favorite to win the election:

  • Donald Trump: +160 (38.5% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -159 (61.5% chance)
Why the big shift from just eight hours ago? Biden has seen some positive movement in both Wisconsin and Michigan as more votes have been tabulated. The race in Nevada has grown tighter, but Biden still leads and all of the votes left to be counted there are mail-in/absentee, which has heavily favored Biden in this race. Lastly, a few different news organizations have called Arizona for the former VP. It’s far from final, but Biden appears to be looking good there, as well.

If Biden takes all of the aforementioned states, he’d win the election — even if he loses Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, all of which are still in play to varying degrees.

In short, Biden appears to have a few paths to victory as more votes get tabulates, which helps explains why his odds. are on the move.

5:25 a.m. ET
It’s been about eight hours since we’ve been able to say this: Joe Biden is again the favorite to win the 2020 Presidential Election, according to the latest odds from Betfair in Europe:
  • Donald Trump: +132 (42.9% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -135 (57.1% chance)
This is a 27.9-point bump for Biden since 4:30 a.m. ET, when he bottomed out at a 29.2% chance to win.
5 a.m. ET
It’s only been 15 minutes since some massive news for Joe Biden in the state of Wisconsin, and the betting odds continue to move toward the former VP.
The odds to win the Presidency are now close to a coinflip:
  • Donald Trump: -105 (51.6% chance)
  • Joe Biden: +104 (48.4% chance)
How quickly can things change in this race? A half-hour ago, Biden’s odds to win were roughly 29%, so he’s seen nearly a 20-point bump on the heels of some positive early news in Wisconsin.
It’s worth noting Biden is also getting good news from Michigan, another state with a large chunk of yet-to-be-counted votes. Trump’s lead there has shrunk a bit with Wayne County, which houses Detroit, still with approximately 50% of its votes left to be tabulated.
4:45 a.m. ET
We’re (finally) starting to get some news from the key swing state of Wisconsin. Donald Trump had been ahead in the state by more than 100,000 votes, but after a large chunk of votes came in from heavily Democatric Milwaukee Country, flipping Joe Biden to the lead by 10,000+ votes with 90% reporting.
While it’s far from final, this would appear to be a good sign for Biden’s chances to flip Wisconsin to blue in 2020.
Here’s how it impacted the overall odds to win the race:
  • Donald Trump: -130 (56.9% chance)
  • Joe Biden: +134 (43.1% chance)
This is a massive boost to Biden’s chances. Just 15 minutes ago, Biden’s odds had dipped to +240 (29.2% chance).
4:30 a.m. ET
We haven’t had any new states called — or really any significant in the states that are still pending — in the past hour, but the odds at Betfair in Europe have swung considerably toward President Donald Trump.
An hour ago, the odds for a Trump victory were effectively 59%. Now?
  • Donald Trump: -250 (70.8% chance)
  • Joe Biden: +240 (29.2% chance)
That’s nearly a 12-point swing in favor of the President.
3:30 a.m. ET
With multiple states still hanging in the balance — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin — the betting odds are moving away from President Donald Trump and toward former Vice President Joe Biden.
Trump is ahead each of the aforementioned states, except for Arizona, but it’s worth noting that the majority of votes left to be counted are mail-in ballots, which are expected to skew more toward Biden.
As we’ve gotten more specifics on these outstanding ballots, the odds at Betfair have shifted slightly toward Biden, though the former Vice President remains an underdog:
  • Donald Trump: -143 (58.7% chance)
  • Joe Biden: +142 (41.3% chance)
This is a 9.1% boost to Biden’s chances.
2:45 a.m. ET
President Donald Trump just got done giving a speech in which he tried to declare victory and said he would try to go to the U.S. Supreme Court to stop counting votes in specific states from being counted. (Note: Legal experts agree Trump would have no grounds to do this.)
Regardless of the claim, Trump’s odds to win the election at Betfair were unmoved by his speech:
  • Donald Trump: -204 (66.8% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +200 (33.2% implied probability)
These are virtually identical to what the odds were at 2 a.m. Here’s the hour-by-hour rundown:
2 a.m. ET
The odds continue to move in Donald Trump’s favor:
  • Donald Trump: -208 (67% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +200 (33% implied probability)
This is a big jump for Trump from where he was at 12:45 a.m. ET (55% chance to win), but he’s still significantly down from his odds at 10 p.m. ET (74.2%).
The reason for the change? Trump is now a pretty significant favorite to win four key states at Betfair: Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
(Note: Betfair took down its state-by-state markets shortly after this update was published.)
For context on how the betting market has evolved as the final stretch of the presidential race has taken shape, here’s an hour-by-hour look:
1:45 a.m. ET
Donald Trump’s odds to win the Presidency keep inching up as we get late into the night on the East coast. Trump is a big betting favorite to win Georgia, despite some predictive models thinking that is still a very tight race. Same with Pennsylvania.
All of that is informing the latest odds:
  • Donald Trump: -161 (61.6% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +160 (38.4% implied probability)
1:15 a.m. ET
Donald Trump has claimed three key victories on Election Night: In Florida, Ohio and Iowa. And as of writing, he’s favored to win in Pennsylvania and Georgia according to the latest state odds from Betfair.
Overall, though, the election odds have stabilized over the past hour. Here’s where they currently sit:
  • Donald Trump: -136 (57.7% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +136 (42.3% implied probability)
We’ll continue to monitor how the odds evolve over the coming hours and days, as votes in key swing states like Pennsylvania are expected to still be counted between now and Friday.
12:45 a.m. ET
With states like Pennsylvania not expected to have votes counted until as late as Friday, the election is far from over.
After heavy movement in the odds throughout Election Day — most notably with Trump emerging with his highest odds yet (74.2% implied probability) at 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday — the betting market now seems to reflect the tightness of the race at this point:
  • Donald Trump: -123 (55% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +122 (45% implied probability)
12:15 a.m. ET
We’re still a long way from this election being over, but some key states are starting to turn in Joe Biden’s direction, according to the betting market.
Betfair has Biden is now favored in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin. That, plus Biden looking good in Arizona, has resulted in the overall odds for the race continuing to move in his direction after bottoming out at 25.8% chance to win at 10 p.m. ET.
The current odds:
  • Donald Trump: -125 (55% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +120 (45% implied probability)
This is a +20% change for Biden from his odds just a little more than two hours ago.
11:30 p.m. ET
The betting market may have overreacted to what appears will be a convincing Trump victory in the state of Florida. Betting odds are starting to shift back to former Vice President Joe Biden, though he far from the favorite he was earlier on Election Day.
Here are the current odds:
  • Donald Trump: -156 (60.6% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +152 (39.4% implied probability)
This is a huge bump from 10 p.m. ET, when Biden bottomed out at 25.8% chance.
11:15 p.m. ET
Donald Trump’s odds to win the presidency peaked at 74.2% at 10 p.m. ET today. His current odds are that high, but they’re not too far off:
  • Donald Trump: -250 (71.7% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +255 (28.3% implied probability)
Biden’s chances are up 2.5% since bottoming out at 10 p.m. ET, but he still has a lot way to go to climb back to his Election Day high of 68.2%, which held strong from 1-5 p.m. ET.
11 p.m. ET
With two hours until the final polls close, betting markets are giving Donald Trump a 70% chance to win re-election:
  • Donald Trump: -300 (70% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +210 (30% implied probability)
Trump hit his peak of 74.2% at 10 p.m. ET, with Biden since gaining some ground on the oddsboard with a 4.2% increase over the past hour.
10:40 p.m. ET
After hitting a high of -400 odds with a 74.2% implied probability 40 minutes ago, Donald Trump has maintained a significant lead over the Joe Biden on the oddsboard, though has slightly fallen since:
  • Donald Trump: -303 (69.3% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +200 (30.7% implied probability)
This is around a +4.9% boost for Biden’s odds since our 10 p.m. ET update.
Here’s an hour-by-hour look at how the odds have evolved over Election Day:
10:25 p.m. ET
The presidential betting odds have moved slightly toward Joe Biden in the past 25 minutes:
  • Donald Trump: -333 (72.9% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +250 (27.1% implied probability)
This is around a +1.3% boost to Biden from our 10 p.m. ET update.
10 p.m. ET
The votes keep coming in and the odds keep swinging toward President Donald Trump. The current odds:
  • Donald Trump: -400 (74.2% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +260 (25.8% implied probability)
9:45 p.m. ET
Less than an hour after emerging as the odds-on favorite to win the election for the first time since May, President Donald Trump has padded his lead over Joe Biden in the betting market:
  • Donald Trump: -333 (67.5% implied probability)
  • Joe Biden: +188 (32.5% implied probability)
Trump is now favored to win three key swing states, per the odds at Betfair:
9:15 p.m. ET
Donald Trump is the odds-on favorite to win the election for the first time since May 5, according to the betting odds at Betfair.
8:45 p.m. ET
Good early results in Florida shifted the betting odds significantly toward President Donald Trump, but Joe Biden’s odds have bounced back. Here are the current odds for each candidate, according to European sportsbook Betfair:
  • Joe Biden: -161 (59.5% implied probability)
  • Donald Trump: +138 (40.5% implied probability)
While Biden hasn’t rebounded to his Election Day high of 68.2%, it’s important to remember that the election was a mere coinflip a half-hour ago, which shows how quickly things can change in a race like this.
One potential reason for the shift? It appears Biden has a better chance to win Ohio than polls expected. The betting market makes his current odds to take the state +120, which is equivalent to a 45.5% chance and higher than where he opened the day +175.
8:15 p.m. ET
Donald Trump continues to gain ground on Joe Biden on the oddsboard as more polls close.
  • Biden: -120 (53.1% implied probability)
  • Trump: +100 (46.9% implied probability)
Over the past two hours, Trump’s chances of being re-elected have jumped from 32.7% to 46.9% — a 14.2% swing, his highest implied probability since Sept. 29.

Here’s the full hour-by-hour rundown of election odds activity on Tuesday at the European sportsbook Betfair. (Each candidate’s high mark today highlighted in green.)
7:45 p.m. ET
After hours of a stagnant betting market, Donald Trump’s implied probability based on the election odds at Betfair have hit the highest point since Sept. 29:
  • Joe Biden: -136 (54.8%)
  • Donald Trump: +110 (45.2%)
Over the past 90 minutes since our last update, Trump’s chances of being re-elected have jumped from 32.7% to 45.2% — a 12.5% swing.
6:15 p.m. ET
We’ve got our first presidential odds movement in the last five-and-a-half hours. It’s a small move, but still a move nonetheless:
  • Joe Biden -250 (67.3% implied probability)
  • Donald Trump +188 (32.7% implied probability)
Biden’s betting odds stayed the same, but Trump’s odds shortened a touch, causing his chances of winning to bump up slightly from 31.8% to 32.7%. That also caused Biden’s chances to dip a bit, from 68.2% to 67.3%.
5 p.m. ET
With the first exit poll results in and another hour to go before the first polls officially close, the 2020 election odds remain exactly where they’ve been over the past four hours:
  • Joe Biden -250 (68.2% implied probability)
  • Donald Trump +188 (31.8% implied probability)
4 p.m. ET
With an hour to go until the first exit polls are in at 5 p.m. ET, the election odds continue to hold steady, not budging over the past three hours:
  • Joe Biden -250 (68.2% implied probability)
  • Donald Trump +188 (31.8% implied probability)
3 p.m. ET
The 2020 election odds have held steady over the past two hours:
  • Joe Biden -250 (68.2% implied probability)
  • Donald Trump +188 (31.8% implied probability)
Heading into Election Day, Biden’s odds gave him a 66.6% implied probability of winning. His odds fell overnight, hitting an Election Day low of 61.4% at three different hours (between 2 and 10 a.m. ET). Over that same span, Trump’s odds hit an Election Day high of 38.6% at those three hour markers.
Then Biden’s odds bounced to 68.2% around 12:50 p.m. ET as Trump’s fell to 31.8%, where they’ve remained since.
2 p.m. ET
No change in Donald Trump or Joe Biden’s odds to win the presidency from our update an hour ago. The odds at Betfair remain as follows:
  • Joe Biden -250 (68.2%)
  • Donald Trump +188 (31.8%)
These odds represent an all-time high for Biden and an all-time low for Trump. It’ll be interesting to see which direction they go from here as we’re five hours away from the starting to get some hard data from key swing states.
12:50 p.m. ET
The Biden momentum continues. The latest U.S. Presidential betting odds from European bookmaker Betfair imply that the former Vice President has more than a 68% chance to win the election:
  • Joe Biden -250 (68.2%)
  • Donald Trump +188 (31.8%)
This is a +1.5% Biden shift from an hour ago, +6.8% change from 8 a.m. ET, and, perhaps most notably, Biden’s best odds to win all race. His previous high came back on Oct. 13, when he had a 67.6% chance, according to Betfair’s odds.
The inverse is true for Trump: These are the President’s worst odds of the day and his lowest chances to win since Oct. 13, when his odds implied a 30.6% chance of returning to the White House for a second term.
11:45 a.m. ET
After a volatile morning of election odds movement, the market appears to have stabilize back where it started the day:
  • Joe Biden -227 (66.7%)
  • Donald Trump +188 (33.3%)
It’s hardly a surprise to see stability return to a race that has been defined by it. Contrary to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election between Trump and Hillary Clinton, we really haven’t seen any major odds shifts in the past month-plus.
At Betfair, Trump has never had more than a 40% chance to win since the calendar turned to October.
10:20 a.m. ET
Joe Biden is clearly taking some bets this morning in Europe. After his odds bottomed out at -175 (61.4% chance) at 8 a.m., he’s fully recovered back to his high of -227 (66.7% chance) as of 10:20 a.m. ET.
Donald Trump’s odds, meanwhile, have dropped from 38.6% (+150) this morning to 33.3% (+188) now.
10:00 a.m. ET
Joe Biden’s odds to win the Presidency are officially back on the rise. After Biden had maintained a healthy 67-33 lead for much of the past week, the betting market shifted to 61-39 early Tuesday morning, but the latest odds reflect some regression for Trump:
  • Joe Biden -200 (64.7% chance)
  • Donald Trump +175 (35.3% chance)
Even with his odds regressing a bit, it’s important to point out that the betting market is much more bullish on Trump’s chances of winning a second term than pretty much every predictive model that’s based on polling data. For example, the 538 forecast closed with Biden having an 89% chance to win, compared a 10% chance for Trump (they had an Electoral College tie as a 1% possibility).
9 a.m. ET
Back and forth we go. After an early morning odds shift toward President Donald Trump, the market has corrected a bit, boosting Joe Biden’s chances slightly.
The current odds:
  • Joe Biden -188 (63.2% chance)
  • Donald Trump +163 (36.7% chance)
While this is nearly a 2% bump for Biden compared to what we saw at 8 a.m. ET, it’s still down from his numbers at midnight this morning (-227 odds, 66.6% chance).
Trump’s odds to win are up nearly 3.5% since midnight, moving from a 33.3% chance to win to a 36.7% chance.
8 a.m. ET
The polls have opened an many states, but the odds to win the presidency have remained stable since our 2 a.m. check-in:
  • Joe Biden -175 (61.4% chance)
  • Donald Trump +150 (38.6% chance)
It’s worth noting that these odds did see a pretty sizable shift in between midnight ET and 2 a.m. Biden had been -227 (66.6%), compared to +188 (33.3%) for Trump as the clock shifted to Election Day on the East coast of the U.S.
Trump’s current 38.6% chance to win are his best odds in more than a month.
2 a.m. ET
Election Day is finally here.
We’ve been tracking the odds since March — when former Vice President Joe Biden first emerged as the presumptive Democratic nominee to challenge President Donald Trump.
Now, we’ll be tracking how the odds shift between now and when the results are final.
For those of you who are just now tuning into the election betting market, here’s a quick overview of how the odds have evolved over the past nine months:
  • March 4 (post-Super Tuesday): Trump 53.9%; Biden 40%
  • March 18 (after first ‘shelter in place’ order): Trump 44.5%; Biden 44.5%
  • April 13 (five days after Bernie Sanders drops out): Trump 50.5%; Biden 42%
  • June 2 (10 days after George Floyd’s death): Trump 43%; Biden 47.3%
  • June 30 (end of fiscal Q2): Trump 33%; Biden 59.2%
  • July 15 (Kanye West ends presidential bid): Trump 34.7%; Biden 58.2%
  • Aug. 17 (Kamala Harris joins Biden’s ticket): Trump 39.3%; Biden 54.1%
  • Aug. 28 (post-Republican National Convention): Trump 45.4%; Biden 49.6%
  • Sept. 29 (post-first debate): Trump 39.4%; Biden 61.73%
  • Oct. 22 (post-second debate): Trump 33.5%; Biden 65.2%
We’ve tracked a lot more movement than those 10 key points (you can parse through the full snapshot here).
Check back throughout Tuesday — and until the race is called — for more updates on how the betting market is projecting the results.
11:30 p.m. ET, Monday
Biden has exactly a two-thirds chance of winning the White House, according to the latest odds (-227), with Trump coming in at +188 odds (33.3% chance).
These are unchanged from earlier on Monday and virtually unchanged from what we’ve seen in the market since last Thursday. Biden’s 66.6% chance is tied for the highest odds he has seen the past week, while Trump peaked at 34.4% on Oct. 31.
2020 Election Day Odds Tracker
We’ll update this tracker with the odds throughout the day on Nov. 3 until results are final.

Swing State Election Odds & Predictions
Heading into Election Day, there are eight states in which one of the two candidates is favored by only -333 (76.9% implied probability) or less: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. In other words, those are the eight closest state races according to the betting market.
We’ll be tracking the odds in those individual states, as well, with our Swing State Tracker.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/politics/election-odds-predictions-swing-states-florida-georgia-ohio-pennsylvania
 
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thursdayafternoon

thursdayafternoon

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I still think Trump will win. If -the devil we know- Biden wins, the scamdemic cannot continue. Trumpers won't obey the restrictions. They need this false messiah so bad. "Messiah president, devil governors" formula works very well.
 
floss

floss

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Murica has fallen!!!


2020 Election Odds Updates
8 a.m. ET
Joe Biden is stretching out his lead over Donald Trump to win the election.
As votes continue to roll in, the betting market has become more and more bullish on Biden on Wednesday morning.
At -385, Biden now has a 76.9% chance to win the presidency, which is the highest since we started tracking odds in the table below.
Here’s a look at the latest Presidential odds:
  • Donald Trump: +320 (23.1% chance)
  • Joe Biden: -385 (76.9% chance)
 
floss

floss

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thursdayafternoon said:
I still think Trump will win. If -the devil we know- Biden wins, the scamdemic cannot continue. Trumpers won't obey the restrictions. They need this false messiah so bad. "Messiah president, devil governors" formula works very well.
Click to expand...
No he won't, be prepare to say NO to mandatory mask/vaccines/MOTB.
 
A Freeman

A Freeman

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Michigan


Earlier this morning, the Michigan election results were tallied as follows:

With 80% of the vote reportedly counted...
Trump - 51.7% (margin: 5.0%, advantage Trump)
Biden - 46.7%

Later, with 87% of the vote reportedly counted...
Trump - 49.9% (margin: 1.4%, advantage Trump)
Biden - 48.5%

Which was later revised (still 87% counted) to...

Trump - 49.47% (margin: 0.49%, advantage Trump)
Biden - 48.98%

Are we to believe that the last 7% of the Michigan vote counted chose Biden over Trump by a 76.5% to 23.5% (3.25-to-1) margin?

If Michigan eventually goes to Biden, it would likely be the deciding state, giving Biden the win (270-269).

Update: with 93% of the vote reportedly counted...
Biden - 49.3% (margin: 0.1%, advantage Biden)
Trump - 49.2%
 
T

The Zone

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And this is why I said Biden was the only one who could beat Trump and that he'd win. I can dig those posts up for all who doubt it. The popular vote will go to Biden. The election results will be questioned and legally attacked, but they split the house and senate. Honestly, I think the fix was in but there are too many who want Trump out IMHO for this to go his way. Arizona was the nail in the coffin, so revisit his criticism of McCain if you must. But middle America will not go quietly in the next few years and if the left puts their foot on their necks, you will see a significant uprising. It is all quite interesting that the media had more or less admitted defeat about eight hours ago but now the worm suddenly turned. It took the pandemic and much more to knock Trump out and the help of all MSM and all social media sites. But the world knows that socialism attempts will be met with whatever it takes in the US, so there is that. Biden will not be able to do some things with a split house and congress, he will likely step aside and a year or two of Kamala may doom the democratic party more than they can imagine. Anyhow, we see a mixture of real life mixed with contrived life and we still have madness with a president in name only to come. Now, some of you need to recognize the sudden rise of Isis as the dems get it back. The MIC is dancing and China just became stronger than ever before.
 
M

meximonk

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The Zone said:
And this is why I said Biden was the only one who could beat Trump and that he'd win. I can dig those posts up for all who doubt it. The popular vote will go to Biden. The election results will be questioned and legally attacked, but they split the house and senate. Honestly, I think the fix was in but there are too many who want Trump out IMHO for this to go his way. Arizona was the nail in the coffin, so revisit his criticism of McCain if you must. But middle America will not go quietly in the next few years and if the left puts their foot on their necks, you will see a significant uprising. It is all quite interesting that the media had more or less admitted defeat about eight hours ago but now the worm suddenly turned. It took the pandemic and much more to knock Trump out and the help of all MSM and all social media sites. But the world knows that socialism attempts will be met with whatever it takes in the US, so there is that. Biden will not be able to do some things with a split house and congress, he will likely step aside and a year or two of Kamala may doom the democratic party more than they can imagine. Anyhow, we see a mixture of real life mixed with contrived life and we still have madness with a president in name only to come. Now, some of you need to recognize the sudden rise of Isis as the dems get it back. The MIC is dancing and China just became stronger than ever before.
Click to expand...
I don't think anyone's going to "win". If you've watched this from the get-go (which I know most of you have), you can see the script being played out. I mean, I would love to be wrong, but:

0) Have a couple of decades of close elections to accustom the people that it's "normal"
1) Prop Lib-Tards up on Pedestal (CIA Commie Slave O'bummer manifested this)
2) Put so-called "Alt-Right" man in Office. Piss of Lib Tards
3) Challenge Election of same using your MSM constantly for 4 years, thus Pissing off the Conservatives who are slow to anger but do much more damage when they finally do (which has yet to happen)
4) Next election make it down to the wire, with results cloudier than ever before
5) Both sides; puppet leaders, following the script, start challenging the votes
6) Crazy Left goes ape-shit 1st, like they always do
7) More time passes, George Floyd Riots 2.0 are in Full swing x10
8) Conservatives can't take it any more
9) America enters Civil War II
10) While America is busy, WWIII and / or "The Great Reset" are fully opened up.
 
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