@Wigi
Thanks for your post. Appreciate it.
I went through the numbers you posted and juxtaposed them to the ones from the FBI. It generated some interesting results.
From 2008 to 2017, 427 white police officers have been killed. Ok we get that and personally I believe it's sad but we don't know if the majority of white officers were all killed by black offenders
It's unlikely that the majority of white officers are killed by black people. These things are mostly intraracial in that predominantly white communities will most of the time have a predominantly white police force and ditto for blacks. But we can conclude, just based on those gross numbers, that if 38.1% of police killing offenders are black, while only 13.9% of killed police officers are non-white (meaning not white , hispanic or latino), that ratio alone says that at bare minimum 24.2% of offenders shooting non-black officers is black. The statistical minimum is almost twice their population proportion.
while 667 blacks among 2984 persons were shot by the police between 2017 and 2019 representing 22,3% (>12,1%).
In 2019, blacks represented 23,4% of those who were shot by the police and If we take account of the additional 20,1% classified as unknown and consider that roughly half of them were in fact blacks it would mean they represented 33% of the persons shot by the police (> 12,1%) solely for 2019.
As
@thursdayafternoon said, this needs to be measured against crime rates where the race of offender and victim are known. Here's a good
link one can use to go over customized statistics by crime type and year since 2008, based on FBI data gathered from 7,610 law enforcement agencies. There are no numbers yet for 2019, so I'll take violent crime (homicide, r*pe, robbery and aggravated assault) offender's and victim's demographics for the last 2 years containing data, 2017-2018, as the example.
Offenders with reported race:
819,072.
Victims with reported race:
817,276.
Offenders that are white (incl. Hispanic/Latino): 379,888 of 819,072 or
46.4% with
77% population distribution.
Ratio violent crime / population =
0.60
Offenders that are black or African American: 356,210 of 819,072 or
43.5% with
12.7% population distribution.
Ratio violent crime / population =
3.43
Victims that are white (incl. Hispanic/Latino): 496,021 of 817,276 or
60.7% with
77% population distribution.
Ratio victim / population =
0.79
Victims that are black or African American: 272,867 of 817,276 or
33.4% with
12.7% population distribution.
Ratio victim / population =
2.63
White offender to victim ratio (0.6 / 0.79) =
0.76
Black offender to victim ratio (3.43/2.63) =
1.30
We're going to take your data here:
The trend of fatal police shootings in the U.S. seems to only be increasing each year, with Black civilians having the highest rates of being killed by police.
www.statista.com
You estimated 33% of shot civilians in 2019 were black, based on 23.4% + half of 20,1% unknown. I'm not sure why you used half of unknown when the black proportion of the known is 23.4%. So it's a better estimate to take 23.4% of the unknown 202 which is 47.2. So we add 47 to the amount of blacks shot, ie. 235, which equals 277 on a total of 1004 civilians shot in 2019 = (277 / 1004) 27.6% instead of 33%.
Ratio shot black civilian / population (27.6 / 12.7) =
2.17
2019 is also the worst year for blacks according to that graph and I can't compare it to the crime stats that I've taken from the FBI (since 2019 hasn't been updated yet), so what I'm gonna do is take your numbers from 2017 and 2018 and put them next to the offender vs victim stats I've listed above.
People shot by cops in 2017:
457 (white) +
223 (black) +
179 (hispanic) + 44 (other) + 84 (unknown) = 987 total.
People shot by cops in 2018:
399 (white) +
209 (black) +
148 (hispanic) + 36 (other) + 204 (unknown) = 996 total.
Total people shot in 2017-2018: 987 + 996 = 1983.
To match these with the numbers from the FBI where white includes hispanic, i'm going to add the whites and hispanic numbers.
White civilians shot by police in 2017 and 2018:
457 +
399 +
179 +
148 = 1183 on 1983 =
59,7% with
77% population distribution.
Black civilians shot by police in 2017 and 2018:
223 +
209 = 432 on 1983 =
21,8% with
12,7% population distribution.
Thus, during the 2017-2018 period:
59,7% of civilians shot by the police were white when whites were
46,4% the offender in violent crime with reported race.
WHITE:
59.7% of people shot dead by police.
46.4% of violent crime offender.
Ratio shot by police / violent crime offender =
1.29
During 2017-2018 whites are proportionately shot 1.29 compared to their participation rate in violent crime.
21.8% of civilians shot by the police were black when blacks were
43.5% the offender in violent crime with reported race.
BLACK:
21.8% of people shot dead by police.
43.5% of violent crime offender.
Ratio shot by police / violent crime offender =
0.50
During 2017-2018 blacks are proportionately shot 0.50 compared to their participation rate in violent crime.
Wow, even I didn't expect such a discrepancy.
I'll be playing around with the
Crime Data Explorer in the near future and see what gives.
Feel free to double check these calculations and challenge wherever necessary.