George Floyd/Protests/Peace/Riots/Chaos

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lightseeker

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Artful Revealer said:
@Wigi

Thanks for your post. Appreciate it.

I went through the numbers you posted and juxtaposed them to the ones from the FBI. It generated some interesting results.

It's unlikely that the majority of white officers are killed by black people. These things are mostly intraracial in that predominantly white communities will most of the time have a predominantly white police force and ditto for blacks. But we can conclude, just based on those gross numbers, that if 38.1% of police killing offenders are black, while only 13.9% of killed police officers are non-white (meaning not white , hispanic or latino), that ratio alone says that at bare minimum 24.2% of offenders shooting non-black officers is black. The statistical minimum is almost twice their population proportion.

As @thursdayafternoon said, this needs to be measured against crime rates where the race of offender and victim are known. Here's a good link one can use to go over customized statistics by crime type and year since 2008, based on FBI data gathered from 7,610 law enforcement agencies. There are no numbers yet for 2019, so I'll take violent crime (homicide, r*pe, robbery and aggravated assault) offender's and victim's demographics for the last 2 years containing data, 2017-2018, as the example.

Offenders with reported race: 819,072.
Victims with reported race: 817,276.

Offenders that are white (incl. Hispanic/Latino): 379,888 of 819,072 or 46.4% with 77% population distribution.
Ratio violent crime / population = 0.60
Offenders that are black or African American: 356,210 of 819,072 or 43.5% with 12.7% population distribution.
Ratio violent crime / population = 3.43

Victims that are white (incl. Hispanic/Latino): 496,021 of 817,276 or 60.7% with 77% population distribution.
Ratio victim / population = 0.79
Victims that are black or African American: 272,867 of 817,276 or 33.4% with 12.7% population distribution.
Ratio victim / population = 2.63

White offender to victim ratio (0.6 / 0.79) = 0.76
Black offender to victim ratio (3.43/2.63) = 1.30

We're going to take your data here:
You estimated 33% of shot civilians in 2019 were black, based on 23.4% + half of 20,1% unknown. I'm not sure why you used half of unknown when the black proportion of the known is 23.4%. So it's a better estimate to take 23.4% of the unknown 202 which is 47.2. So we add 47 to the amount of blacks shot, ie. 235, which equals 277 on a total of 1004 civilians shot in 2019 = (277 / 1004) 27.6% instead of 33%.

Ratio shot black civilian / population (27.6 / 12.7) = 2.17

2019 is also the worst year for blacks according to that graph and I can't compare it to the crime stats that I've taken from the FBI (since 2019 hasn't been updated yet), so what I'm gonna do is take your numbers from 2017 and 2018 and put them next to the offender vs victim stats I've listed above.

People shot by cops in 2017: 457 (white) + 223 (black) + 179 (hispanic) + 44 (other) + 84 (unknown) = 987 total.
People shot by cops in 2018: 399 (white) + 209 (black) + 148 (hispanic) + 36 (other) + 204 (unknown) = 996 total.

Total people shot in 2017-2018: 987 + 996 = 1983.

To match these with the numbers from the FBI where white includes hispanic, i'm going to add the whites and hispanic numbers.

White civilians shot by police in 2017 and 2018: 457 + 399 + 179 + 148 = 1183 on 1983 = 59,7% with 77% population distribution.
Black civilians shot by police in 2017 and 2018: 223 + 209 = 432 on 1983 = 21,8% with 12,7% population distribution.

Thus, during the 2017-2018 period:

59,7% of civilians shot by the police were white when whites were 46,4% the offender in violent crime with reported race.

WHITE:
59.7% of people shot dead by police.
46.4% of violent crime offender.
Ratio shot by police / violent crime offender = 1.29

During 2017-2018 whites are proportionately shot 1.29 compared to their participation rate in violent crime.



21.8% of civilians shot by the police were black when blacks were 43.5% the offender in violent crime with reported race.

BLACK:
21.8% of people shot dead by police.
43.5% of violent crime offender.
Ratio shot by police / violent crime offender = 0.50

During 2017-2018 blacks are proportionately shot 0.50 compared to their participation rate in violent crime.


Wow, even I didn't expect such a discrepancy.

I'll be playing around with the Crime Data Explorer in the near future and see what gives.

Feel free to double check these calculations and challenge wherever necessary.
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1269289866614972418
instagrams removing fbi crime statistics as hate speech so you know what your saying is right
 
J

justjess

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It’s funny to me that people think they actually know the white people crime rate lol.. you don’t. The statistics don’t capture it. Statistics only measure people who get caught. White people fly under the radar better.
 
L

lightseeker

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vancityeagle said:
Why apply common sense when narratives need to be made ?
Click to expand...
Statistics aren’t a narrative.
justjess said:
It’s funny to me that people think they actually know the white people crime rate lol.. you don’t. The statistics don’t capture it. Statistics only measure people who get caught. White people fly under the radar better.
Click to expand...
and we come to the statistics are a lie line again
 
J

justjess

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lightseeker said:
Statistics aren’t a narrative.

and we come to the statistics are a lie line again
Click to expand...
Not a lie, just not a complete picture. Statisticians themselves will tell you to take them with a grain of salt and to critique them with a fine tooth comb

The stats you showed about black people shot by cops are purposely incomplete. That’s what statisticians do.. manipulate data. Well, really not statisticians. More like the people funding the research/studies.
 
L

lightseeker

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Joined
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Messages
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justjess said:
Not a lie, just not a complete picture. Statisticians themselves will tell you to take them with a grain of salt and to critique them with a fine tooth comb

The stats you showed about black people shot by cops are purposely incomplete. That’s what statisticians do.. manipulate data. Well, really not statisticians. More like the people funding the research/studies.
Click to expand...
You don’t think it’s recorded when a white person shoots a cop?
 
Aero

Aero

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What was the chart that got removed? It sounds like some sort of red herring.

The people decrying systemic racism have a literal library of thoroughly researched books to pull from. There is study after study confirming the same things. Conversely, the side saying racism isn't really real only has a socio-cultural meta-narrative that misses the whole point.
 
L

lightseeker

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vancityeagle said:
Statistics dont tell the whole story, they dont give any context.

Statistics can also be easily manipulated to push any narrative you want.
Click to expand...
story is another word for narrative. You don’t like them specifically because they do not have a narrative. Just cold hard numbers. If you don’t like what you see, then you start making a narrative
 
J

justjess

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lightseeker said:
You don’t think it’s recorded when a white person shoots a cop?
Click to expand...
yes I think it’s recorded when a white person shoots a cop. Have you ever studied statistics? I don’t think you understand what I’m saying..

They are only counting fatalities by gunshot. That is not the only way to kill a person. I’m sure the gunshot statistics are complete. Or as complete as they can get them. But there’s more then one way to tell a narrative with statistics.
 
Lyfe

Lyfe

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Why do we even pretend to be a moral society all of a sudden anyways that we actually stand for justice and care for life when we are the same people that stood by and said nothing when 42 million babies were killed and aborted last year? We pretend we actually care about life and society yet we have a serious homeless pandemic. We get the police state and all the other evil the government would impose on us as it is what we deserve as a society...
 
K

Kung Fu

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Faker He-Man said:
The system itself is racist by design, silly.
Click to expand...
Malcolm said it best. "Designed by white for the benefit of white people". And all this designing and engineering while there's blacks, aboriginals, and chinese minorities living there. But according to white racist people (not all white people are racist) they'll just have to live with it and suck it up.

Also, how dare black people try to stand up against a racist system when they should be a good Aunt Jemima and back to cooking for their masters.
 
Artful Revealer

Artful Revealer

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justjess said:
It’s funny to me that people think they actually know the white people crime rate lol.. you don’t. The statistics don’t capture it. Statistics only measure people who get caught. White people fly under the radar better.
Click to expand...
Is this for real? I've calculated the relationship between each race's participation proportion in violent crime to their proportion in fatal shootings by police. It makes "people flying under the radar" COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT.

Even if the rate of violent crime by whites would go underreported a hundred times, it still wouldn't matter. It's about getting caught with your hand in the cookie jar and getting shot. Either you sincerely didn't understand this OR you're shilling big time.
 
Artful Revealer

Artful Revealer

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Aero said:
The people decrying systemic racism have a literal library of thoroughly researched books to pull from. There is study after study confirming the same things. Conversely, the side saying racism isn't really real only has a socio-cultural meta-narrative that misses the whole point.
Click to expand...
Right, because libraries tend to be full with books on "true" history and social sciences. :rolleyes:
 
H

Hermes

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May 8, 2017
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Artful Revealer said:
@Wigi

Thanks for your post. Appreciate it.

I went through the numbers you posted and juxtaposed them to the ones from the FBI. It generated some interesting results.

It's unlikely that the majority of white officers are killed by black people. These things are mostly intraracial in that predominantly white communities will most of the time have a predominantly white police force and ditto for blacks. But we can conclude, just based on those gross numbers, that if 38.1% of police killing offenders are black, while only 13.9% of killed police officers are non-white (meaning not white , hispanic or latino), that ratio alone says that at bare minimum 24.2% of offenders shooting non-black officers is black. The statistical minimum is almost twice their population proportion.

As @thursdayafternoon said, this needs to be measured against crime rates where the race of offender and victim are known. Here's a good link one can use to go over customized statistics by crime type and year since 2008, based on FBI data gathered from 7,610 law enforcement agencies. There are no numbers yet for 2019, so I'll take violent crime (homicide, r*pe, robbery and aggravated assault) offender's and victim's demographics for the last 2 years containing data, 2017-2018, as the example.

Offenders with reported race: 819,072.
Victims with reported race: 817,276.

Offenders that are white (incl. Hispanic/Latino): 379,888 of 819,072 or 46.4% with 77% population distribution.
Ratio violent crime / population = 0.60
Offenders that are black or African American: 356,210 of 819,072 or 43.5% with 12.7% population distribution.
Ratio violent crime / population = 3.43

Victims that are white (incl. Hispanic/Latino): 496,021 of 817,276 or 60.7% with 77% population distribution.
Ratio victim / population = 0.79
Victims that are black or African American: 272,867 of 817,276 or 33.4% with 12.7% population distribution.
Ratio victim / population = 2.63

White offender to victim ratio (0.6 / 0.79) = 0.76
Black offender to victim ratio (3.43/2.63) = 1.30

We're going to take your data here:
You estimated 33% of shot civilians in 2019 were black, based on 23.4% + half of 20,1% unknown. I'm not sure why you used half of unknown when the black proportion of the known is 23.4%. So it's a better estimate to take 23.4% of the unknown 202 which is 47.2. So we add 47 to the amount of blacks shot, ie. 235, which equals 277 on a total of 1004 civilians shot in 2019 = (277 / 1004) 27.6% instead of 33%.

Ratio shot black civilian / population (27.6 / 12.7) = 2.17

2019 is also the worst year for blacks according to that graph and I can't compare it to the crime stats that I've taken from the FBI (since 2019 hasn't been updated yet), so what I'm gonna do is take your numbers from 2017 and 2018 and put them next to the offender vs victim stats I've listed above.

People shot by cops in 2017: 457 (white) + 223 (black) + 179 (hispanic) + 44 (other) + 84 (unknown) = 987 total.
People shot by cops in 2018: 399 (white) + 209 (black) + 148 (hispanic) + 36 (other) + 204 (unknown) = 996 total.

Total people shot in 2017-2018: 987 + 996 = 1983.

To match these with the numbers from the FBI where white includes hispanic, i'm going to add the whites and hispanic numbers.

White civilians shot by police in 2017 and 2018: 457 + 399 + 179 + 148 = 1183 on 1983 = 59,7% with 77% population distribution.
Black civilians shot by police in 2017 and 2018: 223 + 209 = 432 on 1983 = 21,8% with 12,7% population distribution.

Thus, during the 2017-2018 period:

59,7% of civilians shot by the police were white when whites were 46,4% the offender in violent crime with reported race.

WHITE:
59.7% of people shot dead by police.
46.4% of violent crime offender.
Ratio shot by police / violent crime offender = 1.29

During 2017-2018 whites are proportionately shot 1.29 compared to their participation rate in violent crime.



21.8% of civilians shot by the police were black when blacks were 43.5% the offender in violent crime with reported race.

BLACK:
21.8% of people shot dead by police.
43.5% of violent crime offender.
Ratio shot by police / violent crime offender = 0.50

During 2017-2018 blacks are proportionately shot 0.50 compared to their participation rate in violent crime.


Wow, even I didn't expect such a discrepancy.

I'll be playing around with the Crime Data Explorer in the near future and see what gives.

Feel free to double check these calculations and challenge wherever necessary.
Click to expand...
I don't personally agree that stats are straightforward because even in your example and what you are technically trying to prove, there are some conclusions which are driven by your narrative (whether you want to admit this or not).

If the question at hand is whether police shootings are racially motivated then your stats don't necessarily disprove or prove that statement. To gather that data you would need to review each case individually and analyze what the intent behind the shooting was and whether race played a factor.

Your theory and stats solely relies on the notion that only those that commit violent crimes are shot by police. I don't get what you are trying to prove with that? Please clarify your rationale behind why you chose to compare racialized shootings by how many times the race is shot by police to their rate of violent crime offenses?

What about cases of police shooting of individuals not commiting violent crimes (ie, theft, drug dealing/using, counterfeiting) or those that have no criminal history?
 
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