Russia through the hidden eye

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511
The 13th Russian Internet Governance Forum
April 6–7 2023

SUPPORTED BY

Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media of the Russian Federation

ORGANIZERS


Russian domains .RU and domain space expertise
and

SUSTAINABLE FUTURE OF GLOBAL IT-COOPERATION
ANO «Center for Global IT-Cooperation» (Center) was created in 2020 for the international expert study of global cooperation between Russia and the international community in the field of information technology (IT), as well as the promotion of new approaches to multilateral Internet governance.

The center works with a pool of Russian and international experts to develop new approaches in the field of global IT-cooperation, conduct research and implement projects in the field of digital literacy, popularize scientific and technological cooperation, develop the international legal framework for the international Internet governance, as well as through the received contacts and with the assistance of all interested experts in Russia and abroad to conduct a number of scientific and expert round tables, conferences and webinars.
ABOUT US
CONNECTING ALL STAKEHOLDERS
FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL DIGITAL COOPERATION

________
back to rigf.ru:
ABOUT FORUM

Russian Internet Governance Forum to be held on April 6–7 online

Speakers and participants of RIGF 2023 will discuss the development of the Global Digital Compact proposed by UN Secretary-General António Guterres, regulation of the Internet and its ecosystems, the role of digital platforms in ensuring the right to access information, as well as censorship by these platforms, new technologies in EdTech and other topical issues.

And, of course, at RIGF 2023 there will be a solemn presentation of the Virtuti Interneti award and a lecture by the laureate of the Internet Order. Who will be the winner this time will be known only on April 7.

When forming the RIGF 2023 program, the opinions of everyone who took part in the collection of topics for the upcoming forum in January 2023 will be taken into account.


AGENDA
April 6


Session 1. New Digital World: The State and The Individual

The Fourth Industrial Revolution dramatically reshaped the international economic and political landscape. The Internet has become a repository of knowledge and achievements of mankind, as well as the main means of production in the modern world. However, the opening of new digital horizons not only created opportunities for business and science, but also became a challenge for citizens and states around the world.

Government systems are increasingly forced to transform, adapt to new realities, respond to information risks and protect the physical world from the digital one. The state is creating a brand-new framework for sustainable digital dialogue based on setting the individual at the center of the digital transformation as a response to the issues of our time. It relates to the cooperative promotion of common approaches to the regulation of the digital environment within the context of international processes.

During the session, it will be proposed to discuss what values underlie this new approach, what role the state should take in modern Internet Governance processes, and how to maintain human-centric digital technologies. The panelists will also consider the role of such initiatives as the Global Digital Compact, which proclaims its goal to create a fair and equitable digital world order.


Moderator: Vadim Vinogradov, Higher School of Economic
Participants:
  • Lenar Fayzutdinov, ANO Dialog
  • Anton Kukanov, Roskachestvo
  • Aleksandr Yuhno, Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
  • Boris Yedidin, Internet Development Institute
  • Sergey Grebennikov, RAEС

  • Session 2. Global Internet and Digital Sovereignty
  • In order to ensure technological independence from foreign solutions and to independently regulate the digital information space, countries must have what is known as “digital sovereignty”. This means they has to be able to provide the necessary infrastructure for the steady advancement of the information society on their territory. The Internet, due to its comprehensive cross-border nature, acts as the main driving force that develops the global digital information space. At the same time, the desire of many states to ensure their own digital sovereignty directly stimulates the process of “splitting” the Internet into regional and country zones with a special regulatory regime and rules for the circulation of content and services.
  • Within the framework of the session, it will be proposed to consider the experience of ensuring digital sovereignty in various countries and regions of the world, as well as to assess the possible consequences of the growing fragmentation of the global Internet. There will also be discussion of potential scenarios and management strategies for Russia's domestic Internet market, as well as potential opportunities for foreign marketing.

    Moderator: Roman Chukov, Center for Global IT-CooperationParticipants:
  • https://rigf.ru/en/prog/?p=prog#3
  • https://rigf.ru/en/prog/?p=prog#3
  • Session 3. Digital Technologies of the Future
    Machine learning and ultra-efficient neural networks, Internet technologies, immersive Internet and metaverses, distributed ledger technologies, cryptocurrencies, quantum computing, industrial automation – these and other technologies are becoming a reality and trends of today's development, and are beginning to perform increasingly critical economic and social functions.
  • During the session, it is proposed to consider scientific developments, innovations and already implemented projects in various industries and fields of application – medicine, education, public administration, urban infrastructure, etc. Representatives of various platforms will be able to share information about their projects, new opportunities, main tasks, difficulties and prospects for further development. During the discussion, the problems of a comprehensive assessment of the impact of digital innovations on the economy and the socio-humanitarian sphere, issues of regulation and standardization will be touched upon.

    Modeartor: Elena Suragina, MTS

    Participants:
    • Yuri Vasiliev, Center for Diagnostics and Telemedicine
    • Maxim Fyodorov, Russian Academy of Sciences
    • Andrey Ignatyev, Center for Global IT-Cooperation
    • Kristina Sergunova, National Research Center "Kurchatov Institute"
    • Anastasia Pokrovskaya, MIPT
  • Session 4. Accountability Of Suspicion: How To Fight For The Safety Of Information
    We are witnessing an unprecedented amount of online misinformation as geopolitical tensions grow. Fake information itself is not the only threat to Internet users; intentional information operations aiming at dividing society are also a threat. How can the Runet expert community work together to address these issues? How can the Russian experience be useful to those who are interested in effectively countering fake information and digital discrimination?
    Moderator: Anna Sutyrina (Dupan), Higher School of Economic
    Participants:
    18:00 – 18:30 Cocktail
    April 7
    Session 5. Real And Virtual Worlds: The Red Lines

    The session will address issues such as how the Internet affects personality development, how children and youth interact in a virtual environment, how to create the ideal conditions for the younger generation's development and education in a digital society, how participants in educational relationships form media and information cultures, and the legal issues surrounding Internet space for children regulation.
    Scientists, practitioners, including innovative sites of the Safe Information Environment for Childhood project, representatives of specialized non-profit organizations, and experts are invited to participate in the work.


    Modearator: Veronika Romanova, RBC

    Participants:

Session 7. New Technologies In Medicine As A Tool For Healthcare Development
The session participants will discuss approaches to reforming the current regulation in the field of healthcare based on the best international practices for the development of artificial intelligence technologies.
Topics for discussion:

  • Artificial Intelligence in medicine.
  • Validation of large datasets: can all the data be used or is it mandatory to select them?
  • Barriers to data processing using AI systems in medicine: will be there a consent?
Moderator: Rimma Chichakyan, Digital Economy

Participants:
  • Boris Zingerman, "INVITRO", Association "National Medical Knowledge Base"
  • Viktoria Kozlova, "Data Matrix"
  • Karen Kazaryan, Digital Economy
  • Yulia Seryapina, Center for Expertise and Quality Control of Medical Care of the Ministry of Health of Russia

Session 8. Digital transformation: the voice of youth
Internet Governance plays a special role in sustainable development and digital transformation. Focusing on the Internet, it is important to take into account the opinion of stakeholders, and especially the younger generation.

The youth has always been an important driver of digitalization. However, there is still a lack of informing young people about the existing opportunities to participate in digital transformation processes in Internet Governance ecosystem. Projects that provide such opportunities must be open and accessible in order for the younger generation to become the positive force that it can become.

The session will present the results of the IGF 2022 youth track, the results of the RIGF special course for youth, programs for youth in the world (ITU, NetMission, IGF, ICANN), as well as information about the youth projects of the Coordination Center for TLD .RU.


Moderators: Anna Monakhova, SPLAT Global; Ilona Stadnik, Saint Petersburg State University

Participants:
__________
Presentation of the 2nd collection of author's articles "Internet Today and Tomorrow"
Summing up
Andrey Vorobyev, Coordination Center for TLD .RU

HISTORY
IGF Worldwide Background

The problem of Internet governance was at Tunis Agenda for the Information Society at World Summit on the Information Society held in Geneva in 2003 and in Tunis in 2005, resulting in Information Society program approved in Tunis that year. The program oversees all key issues of Internet governance, including the definition of Internet governance itself, and contains a decision to start a series of Internet Governance Forums worldwide. The first IGF meeting held in Athens in 2006 provided a new ground for discussing the issues of Internet governance globally. IGF is a forum for multi-stakeholder policy dialogue, its establishment approved by the UN Secretary-General. In 2010 the mandate of the Internet Governance Forum was extended for a further five years, until 2015.

Paragraph 72 of the Tunis Agenda:

...72. We ask the UN Secretary-General, in an open and inclusive process, to convene, by the second quarter of 2006, a meeting of the new forum for multi-stakeholder policy dialogue—called the Internet Governance Forum (IGF). The mandate of the Forum is to:
  1. Discuss public policy issues related to key elements of Internet governance in order to foster the sustainability, robustness, security, stability and development of the Internet;
  2. Facilitate discourse between bodies dealing with different cross-cutting international public policies regarding the Internet and discuss issues that do not fall within the scope of any existing body;
  3. Interface with appropriate inter-governmental organizations and other institutions on matters under their purview;
  4. Facilitate the exchange of information and best practices, and in this regard make full use of the expertise of the academic, scientific and technical communities;
  5. Advise all stakeholders in proposing ways and means to accelerate the availability and affordability of the Internet in the developing world;
  6. Strengthen and enhance the engagement of stakeholders in existing and/or future Internet governance mechanisms, particularly those from developing countries;
  7. Identify emerging issues, bring them to the attention of the relevant bodies and the general public, and, where appropriate, make recommendations;
  8. Contribute to capacity building for Internet governance in developing countries, drawing fully on local sources of knowledge and expertise;
  9. Promote and assess, on an ongoing basis, the embodiment of WSIS principles in Internet governance processes;
  10. Discuss, inter alia, issues relating to critical Internet resources;
  11. Help to find solutions to the issues arising from the use and misuse of the Internet, of particular concern to everyday users;
  12. Publish its proceedings
Internet governance is based on a multi-stakeholder dialogue, which ideally includes government, society, businesses, academic circle and techology professionals. This is exactly what IGF has to offer to its participants. All Forum contributors are equal, and the view differences are not to be seen as obstructions but rather as a way to pinpoint the critical points of the process, leading to the mutual success. A total of twelve worldwide IGF meetings have been held so far: in Athens, 2006; in Rio de Janeiro, 2007; in Hyderabad, 2008, in Sharm El Sheikh, 2009; in Vilnius, 2010; in Nairobi, 2011; in 2012 in Baku; in 2013 in Bali; in 2014 in Istanbul; in 2015 in João Pessoa; in 2016 in Guadalajara; in 2017 in Geneva; in Paris in 2018 and in Berlin in 2019. In 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the forum was held online. In 2021, the forum was held in a hybrid format: in Katowice (Poland) and online. The online format was preserved in 2022, when the forum was held in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia.

Today, IGF worldwide has become a new way of addressing the problems of Internet governance as a multi- stakeholder institution created by an UN General Secretary resolution. The regional and national IGF forums held in different countries deal with technical, administrative and legal issues of governing the Internet in various countries and regions."
 
Last edited:

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511
Marat Khusnullin: In 2022, measures to introduce intelligent transport systems were carried out in 42 regions

January 24, 2023
In 2022, measures to introduce intelligent transport systems within the framework of the federal project "System-wide measures for the development of road infrastructure" of the national project "Safe Quality Roads" were held in 49 urban agglomerations of 42 regions. For these purposes, funds in the amount of 7.35 billion rubles were allocated from the federal budget.

"The program is a logical addition to the comprehensive development of road transport infrastructure. Due to the increasing traffic and increasing traffic flows, intelligent transport systems are an effective solution to ensure the safety and comfort of all traffic participants in an urban environment. In 2022, ITS implementation activities were carried out in 42 regions," Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said.

Intelligent transport systems are being introduced in urban agglomerations with a population of over 300 thousand people starting in 2020. And every year the number of subjects participating in the program is growing.

"If in 2020, when the program was just beginning, 22 regions participated in it, then in 2022 their number increased to 42. Last year, 18 subjects of the country began implementing ITS implementation measures for the first time," said Roman Novikov, head of the Federal Road Agency.

In Ulan-Ude (Republic of Buryatia) in 2021, an ITS Control Center was established, which was equipped with a software and hardware complex for traffic light control. The first 14 light regulators were upgraded and connected, five information boards were installed at public transport stops.

"To date, 54 traffic lights have already been upgraded on the streets of the city. Now they conduct full-fledged monitoring of the road situation and coordinate traffic at several transport hubs. There are also information boards installed at 18 stops that predict the arrival time of buses and trams. Now passengers can navigate the waiting time of the route they need. A total of 40 controllers, 72 surveillance cameras, 103 transport detectors have been installed," said Evgeny Lukovnikov, Deputy Chairman of the Government of the Republic of Buryatia.

As part of the national project, a subsystem for monitoring the parameters of transport flows has been introduced. It collects real-time data on the average speed of cars, traffic, records the distance between cars and much more. It is planned that in 2023, 24 more traffic light facilities will be upgraded, 37 surveillance cameras, 55 detectors will be installed, and software will also be improved.

In the Yekaterinburg city agglomeration (Sverdlovsk region) in 2022, according to the national project, more than 380 stationary and surveillance video surveillance cameras with licenses were installed, 15 traffic light facilities and software for managing them were upgraded.

Gymnasium No. 120 on Stepan Razin Street has its first projection zebra. It does not replace the usual markings on the road, but duplicates it in the dark and in bad weather. In addition, there is a sensor that allows you to count the number of people crossing the road. The information obtained will help to analyze whether a traffic light is needed here.

Also, at the intersection of Kirov and Tokarei streets, the first weather post has been installed. It is equipped with sensors for air temperature and humidity, wind direction and speed, precipitation and visibility. Thanks to the collected information, specialists will be able to take timely measures to clean the roadway from snow and ice, as well as limit the permitted speed.

In the Volgograd Region in 2022, the main emphasis was placed on improving the traffic light network and creating a single platform for managing the transport complex for Volgograd and the Volga Region. During the implementation of the project, modern artificial intelligence technologies were used – electronic vision and machine learning. This allows you to adaptively manage traffic flows depending on the traffic congestion.

So, in 2022, the number of smart traffic lights increased to 270: 53 new devices were installed in Volgograd, another 31 in Volzhsky. The complexes work together with transport detectors or video cameras, which assess the congestion of intersections in real time and transmit this information to the central management server. All this allows you to predict the traffic situation for 15-30 minutes ahead and develop an effective traffic management plan in advance.

A special mobile application is available to users of highways and passengers of public transport in Volgograd. You can use it to find out information about the movement of public transport, build routes and see road events on the map.

In addition, more than 1.3 thousand km of Volgograd and Volzhsky roads were digitized as part of the Digital Twin module.
***
In connection with the amendments to the Government Decree No. 1762 of December 21, 2019, approving the Rules for Granting other Inter-budget Transfers to the Subjects of the Russian Federation for the Purpose of implementing ITS, the Ministry of Transport Order No. AK-74-r of March 21, 2022 approved new Methodological Recommendations for the development of applications (including local projects for the creation and modernization ITS) of the subjects of the Russian Federation to receive other inter-budgetary transfers from the federal budget to the budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation in order to implement the event "Introduction of ITS, providing for the automation of traffic management processes in urban agglomerations, including cities with a population of over 300 thousand people" within the framework of the federal project "System-wide measures for the development of road facilities" of the state program "Development of the transport system". The changes provide for the participants to achieve a certain level of ITS maturity.

And already in 2022, the Tyumen, Kazan, Vologda, Tula and Krasnoyarsk urban agglomerations reached the first level of ITS maturity in accordance with the specified rules and guidelines. At the same time, the achievement of this level can be confirmed only after an analysis of the compliance of the works completed by them in 2022 with the rules and methodological recommendations.

Also, according to the results of the evaluation of the effectiveness of the provision of other inter-budget transfers, in 2022 it is planned to increase the number of entities that have reached the first level of maturity."
___

Transport, industry and construction will become priority sectors of the economy in Russia for the introduction of artificial intelligence

April 11, 2023
According to the press service of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, the priority sectors of the economy in Russia for the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) will be healthcare, agriculture, transport, industry and construction.

Earlier, the Ministry of Economic Development, together with relevant departments, industry companies and vendors of AI solutions, analyzed the level of readiness, effects, scaling prospects and barriers to the introduction of AI in five priority sectors of the economy in 2023 in the format of strategic sessions.

According to the results of the sessions, out of more than 200 projects reviewed, experts selected 70 of the most popular domestic AI solutions for 2023 in 14 sub-sectors - healthcare, animal husbandry, crop production, food, chemical and petrochemical industries, metallurgy, mechanical engineering, wheeled, air, railway, water transport, construction, housing and communal services. The number of sub-sectors can be supplemented."
 

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511
OK, but How could it be more convenient for the inhabitants of perhaps the only country in the world that is ruled by anti-Davos and anti-WEF authorities who go hand in hand with their people, in a different, human, good way?

Putin instructed to prepare a draft decree on a "digital passport" by May 1
The document will determine the cases and procedure for using a digital identity card instead of a passport
Путин поручил до 1 мая подготовить проект указа о цифровом паспорте

MOSCOW, March 27. /tass/. President Vladimir Putin ordered to draft a decree by May 1, which will determine the cases and procedure for using a digital identity card instead of a passport. Such an item is contained in the list of instructions of the head of state, published on Monday on the Kremlin's website.
"The Government of the Russian Federation, together with the FSB of Russia and the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, should prepare and submit a draft decree of the President of the Russian Federation establishing the cases and procedure for presenting a digital identity card of a citizen of the Russian Federation obtained using the mobile application of the federal state information system "Unified Portal of State and Municipal Services", instead of documents certifying the identity of a citizen of the Russian Federation," one from the points.

The deadline for execution of the order is set until May 1.

The task was set following a meeting with the government held on February 15. At it, the head of the Ministry of Finance Maksut Shadaev spoke about the technology that "will allow in 80% of cases - in such everyday, simple situations - to use a smartphone instead of the original passport." The minister suggested thinking about the "legalization and mass implementation" of the solution and asked to issue a decree that will determine possible cases of using a digital identity card on a smartphone as a passport replacement. Putin supported this idea.

https://tass.ru/obschestvo/6674289
Meeting with members of the Government

Vladimir Putin held a meeting with members of the government in a videoconference. The main directions of tax administration in 2023 were discussed. as well as topical issues.


February 15, 2023

...
"Vladimir Putin:
[…]
We have already transferred 260 public services in electronic form, and this year we plan to transfer another 181 services in electronic form.

Maksut Igorevich, can we cope with this task?

Maksut Shadaev: Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich! Dear colleagues!

Last December, the government completed the first stage of a large-scale effort to convert mass socially significant services into electronic form. We do this work according to your instructions.

The initial plan included 204 services with more than 100,000 visits per year: 111 services provided by federal agencies and 93 services provided by regional departments and local governments. Now all these services can be obtained without having to personally contact the authorities, the MFC. Through the portal, you can send an electronic form and immediately receive the necessary documents in the portal's personal account based on the results.

In addition, Vladimir Vladimirovich, you mentioned 260 services - these are services related to obtaining permits and licenses. This is the work that Dmitry Grigorenko performs as part of the optimization of licensing procedures. There are actually 260 services. There is not so much traffic for them, but it is clear that this significantly reduces business costs, because it is also an electronic filing: electronic licenses or permits are credited to your personal account, signed with the electronic signature of an official. In general, there are no documents, everything is fast. If a refusal occurs, a pre-trial appeal procedure is applied accordingly, which allows the company to understand the reasons for the refusal and get a really fair decision.

If we talk about mass services, which are mainly used by citizens, then we are talking about social benefits and allowances. Anton Olegovich said this already from his side: these are marriage registration, birth, registration at the place of residence. In general, everything we do now can be done electronically.

At the same time, it is very important, Vladimir Vladimirovich, that we keep the traditional format of filing documents for everyone. That is, those who want to, can still apply in person, come and submit the original document – in this sense, there is no discrimination.

It is very important that when solving this problem, we had to build a large platform at the same time, especially for regional and municipal authorities. It turns out that they have different levels of digitization, and many are even technically unable to accept electronic applications from the portal. Now a very large system has been created as the first brick of the large Gostech platform, which Dmitry Nikolaevich told you about.

It employs about 60 thousand employees, seven thousand bodies, and in this system incoming applications are considered and decisions are made within the framework of the provision of relevant services. This is, of course, a large interdepartmental project, and in fact we are leveling the degree of digitization at the municipal and regional levels, giving [the opportunity] to everyone who did not have such an opportunity to work electronically.

It is very important that our work does not end there. We have provided electronic input, electronic output, but Anton Olegovich absolutely correctly said that our technical capabilities already allow us to significantly reduce the time of providing services.

Indeed, we already have basic information within the framework of systematic interdepartmental electronic interaction, our main departments have serious information systems. Now we really have the opportunity to provide a variety of services on the Internet or significantly reduce the decision-making time for these services to several days. So here we continue to work.

Separately, I would like to say a few words about digital copies of documents.

Vladimir Vladimirovich, I informed you that at the end of last year we planned to launch an electronic digital driver's license with a digital STS, which we launched a year earlier. Now we have a very convenient service for car owners who sometimes forget documents: now they can present both a driver's license and STS to a police inspector directly on their smartphone. This is a very popular service: in January alone, car owners used digital copies of their CTC and driver's license four million times.

Together with the Ministry of Emergency Situations, we have launched digital rights to operate small boats, and this year, together with the Ministry of Agriculture, we will make the same digital rights to a smartphone for owners of snowmobiles and ATVs. This is very convenient: you can display all these documents directly on your smartphone.

At the end of December, together with the Ministry of Health, we launched the MHI digital policy, which also allows citizens to submit the relevant document on their smartphone when visiting medical organizations – now it is always at hand.
In January alone, almost one and a half million users used this service.

Vladimir Vladimirovich, we are working on a separate serious work to optimize the procedures for issuing a fan card certificate. We already have 400,000 people who have received a fan card, which is now a prerequisite for attending football matches. But our current procedure already provides that after submitting an electronic application, you still have to come to MFC to confirm your identity. Of course, this is not always convenient.

We have agreed with FSB on a technology that allows holders of biometric passports and our application not to contact MFC, but to do everything electronically, because we have a photo of the chip in our passport, and, accordingly, this photo allows you to verify the owner.

We have done the same in the mobile application of public services.
I told you that we have a large number of everyday situations where a passport as a document is not required in principle. For example, when making certain purchases or when entering some office centers, it is unreasonable for a user to always request an original passport, so we have developed such a technology.

It works very simply: you upload a photo from a biometric passport directly to your smartphone, then a QR code is generated that you represent, and the one who wants to check your grounds, respectively, from the Gosuslugi mobile application also checks either your age or surname, first name, patronymic through the QR code. According to our understanding, this will allow in 80 percent of cases – in such everyday, simple situations - to use a smartphone instead of the original passport.

Our technology is fully consistent with FSB, implemented as safe and secure. It seems to us that we can probably return to the issue of its legalization and mass application. To do this, according to our colleagues from the FSB and other agencies involved in this work, in order to give it a powerful impetus, we would like to ask you to issue a decree that will determine possible cases of using such a digital identity card on a smartphone as a passport replacement. There are few such situations -we do not cancel the passport, but only once again: in everyday relationships, it is probably possible in some cases to turn off the passport and use a smartphone for this.

Vladimir Vladimirovich, they wanted to ask you to instruct us to submit such a draft decree together with the FSB and other interested agencies before the first of May. This will allow to legalize this technology.

Thanks.

Vladimir Putin: Please.

The sooner the better. If you noticed, Maksut Igorevich recently, during one of the events, talked with a girl who drew attention to the difficulties for the disabled, for pensioners, for children, so that they themselves make up fan cards and, accordingly, tools related to the presentation of these cards. Therefore, of course, such services are in great demand, and we just need to accelerate their implementation.

Maksut Shadaev: Thank you, Vladimir Vladimirovich.

Vladimir Putin: Thank you. Please prepare these projects. …„

The Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media of the Russian Federation has prepared a draft decree on a digital passport

April 13, 2023
The Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Communications of the Russian Federation has published a draft decree on a digital passport of a citizen on the portal of draft regulatory legal acts.

In particular, the document provides for the voluntary presentation of information using the mobile application "Public Services", and electronic versions of documents will be equated to the presentation of paper originals.

Earlier, Arseniy Poyarkov, a member of the State Duma expert Council on the digital economy, said that the gradual transition to digital passports in Russia is a logical step, given the fact that the entire document flow is gradually turning into a "digital", Izvestia writes.


"The gradual transition to digital passports in Russia is a logical step, given the fact that the entire document flow is gradually turning into a "digital". The electronic version of the document has other advantages. Arseniy Poyarkov, a member of the State Duma Expert Council on the digital economy, said this on Monday, March 27.

"The passport as a "piece of paper" has remained since ancient times and is, in fact, a vestige. The "piece of paper" has a number of unpleasant properties — it can be lost, it is quite easy to forge and it takes time to check," the expert said in an interview with the Zvezda TV channel.

He noted that the decree on digital identity is designed to launch a smooth transition between paper and electronic documents. At the same time, no one plans to take away old passports — they will be in use for many years.

Poyarkov also told how working with a digital passport may look in the future.

"How it works with rights now — you are stopped by a traffic police officer, and instead of pieces of paper you show him a phone with a QR code on it - it leads to a database where an employee can see everything he wanted to see. In the same way with a passport — if a digital one is introduced, you will be able to present it in everyday matters, for example, when going to the bank," he said.

The expert expressed the opinion that digital passports are much more reliable in terms of protection from fraudsters. A paper document can be easily forged, but this cannot be done with a database that stores information about the documents of Russians.

Earlier in the day, Russian resident Vladimir Putin instructed to prepare a draft decree by May 1, providing for the presentation of a digital identity card instead of a passport, the NSN reports.

Also, until May 1, the head of state instructed to simplify the use of Fan ID by Russians, primarily for children, pensioners and the disabled.

In February, Putin supported the experiment of the Ministry of Finance to introduce a digital identity card on a smartphone instead of a paper passport.

The Fan ID referred to in the instructions is a fan card. Putin signed the law on it at the end of 2021. At the same time, the system was used in test mode during the 2017 Confederation Cup and the 2018 FIFA World Cup held in Russia and the St. Petersburg part of the 2020 European Championship.

Since July 2022, this card is required to attend matches of the Russian Premier League (RPL). Persons over the age of 14 can apply for a Fan ID. A fan passport for children under the age of 14 must be issued to their parents."
 

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511
Why is it that so often in different development strategies, different laws, occurs "until 2025"? What ends then? Or is it starting? Or does something End and another stage begin?

NEURONET
?


"Neuronet (English NeuroNet, NeuroWeb, Brainet) or Web 4.0 is one of the proposed stages of the development of the World Wide Web, in which the interaction of participants (people, animals, intelligent agents) will be carried out on the principles of neuro—communication. According to forecasts, it should replace Web 3.0 approximately in 2030-2040.

History
The ideas on which the concept of the Neural Network is based date back more than a decade. First of all, we are talking about the possibility of enhancing human intelligence by analogy with the increase in physical strength, voiced by William Ashby in "Introduction to Cybernetics" (1956), and then developed by Joseph Licklider in the article "Human-computer symbiosis" (1960)and Douglas Engelbart in the report "The Addition of human Intelligence: a conceptual framework" (1962) to the concept of the exocortex — an information processing system external to humans. In 1973, in the article "Towards a direct connection between the brain and the computer", Jacques J. Vidal first used the term neurocomputer interface, and in 1998 Phillip Kennedy and Roy Bakay from Emory University in Atlanta implanted the first such an interface to a patient named Johnny Ray.

Secondly, we are talking about the prospect of the emergence of a global brain, the idea of which goes back to the collection of short stories by H. G. Wells "The World Brain" (1936-1938). A little later, Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, developing the idea of Eduard Leroy about the noosphere, formulated in the "Phenomenon of Man" (1938-1940) the concept of the Omega point — the moment when the whole set of human consciousnesses will form into a higher consciousness. Valentin Turchin in the book "The Phenomenon of Science: A Cybernetic Approach to Evolution" (1973) introduced the concept of the quantum of evolution — a metasystem transition (Eng.) rus. As a result of one of these transitions, it will be possible to physically integrate individual nervous systems with the creation of potentially immortal human super-beings. The first scientific publication on the topic was an article by Gottfried Mayer-Kress and Kathleen Barczys "The global brain as a structure developing from a worldwide computer network, and the consequences of this conclusion for modeling" (1995). Since 2013, there have been experiments on the possibility of direct communication from brain to brain (Sam A. Deadwyler et al., Miguel Pais-Vieira et al., Carles Grau et al., Rajesh P. N. Rao et al.).

In 2011, the well—known creator of neurocomputer interfaces, Brazilian Miguel Nicolelis, in his book Beyond boundaries: the new neuroscience of connecting brains with machines - and how it will change our lives, proposed the word "Brainet" for the name of the future brain network. The term "neuronet" (English neuronet, neuro-net) was originally used to refer to artificial neural networks.

A new understanding of it as the name of the next generation of the global communication network after the Semantic Web began to take shape in Russia starting in 2012. In particular, in this sense, the Neural Network was mentioned in November of that year on polit.ru, and in March 2013 in an article of the Russian Reporter magazine devoted to the activities of participants in the Russia 2045 movement, with reference to the American futurist Raymond Kurzweil. Speaking at the TED conference in February 2005, Kurzweil predicted that by 2029 man would begin to merge with technology. And during a speech at the DEMO conference in Santa Clara (California) in October 2012, he talked about the future expansion of brain capabilities through cloud computing, that is, about the exocortex. In August 2013, the term Neuronet was voiced by Pavel Luksha, professor of the Moscow School of Management "Skolkovo" at the Foresight Fleet conducted by the Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI), as well as during presentations of the results of the foresight project "Education 2030".

On October 16, 2014 at the office of the Russian Venture Company (RVC), an expert seminar "The Neuronet Roadmap" was held with the participation of Stephen Dunn, director of Starlab Neuroscience Research; Karen Casey, creator of the Global Mind Project; Randal A. Kuhne, CEO of the Science Foundation Carboncopies.org and the founder of NeuraLink Co.; Mikhail Lebedev, Senior Researcher An employee at the Neuroengineering Center of the Department of Neurobiology at Duke University Medical Center (M. Nicolelis Laboratory); Evgeny Kuznetsov, Deputy General Director of RVC. The seminar was conducted by the co-founders of the Russian Neuronet Group Pavel Luksha and Timur Shchukin, as well as the head of the RVC Innovation Ecosystem Development Service Georgy Gogolev.

On behalf of the ASI [Agency for Strategic Initiatives], the group "Designers of Communities of Practice" prepared a report on future neural markets. On July 1, 2015, the first report on the National Technology Initiative (NTI), a long—term program that should ensure Russia's leadership in global technology markets by 2035, was presented to the President of Russia. The day before, in May of the same year, Neuronet was present among the 9 NTI markets discussed during the next "Foresight Fleet". ASI and RVC should conduct an examination of the NTI roadmap for the Neural network market and coordinate it with federal executive authorities by January 1, 2016
.


____________
Description
Background


Inefficiency of communications
The first prerequisite is the discrepancy between the high potential of the human brain and the state of those organs that are responsible for the information exchange of a person with the external environment. On the one hand, the brain is much more efficient than a computer: for a complete simulation of the brain, a supercomputer is needed that consumes approximately 12 GW, while the power consumption of the brain itself is only about 20 watts. On the other hand, the brain is used inefficiently, as evidenced by human communication errors (noises) caused by various reasons (physiological, psychological noises, semantic and socio-cultural barriers). An important barrier to perception is an undeveloped picture of the world, explained by a lack of experienced knowledge. According to Pavel Luksha, the quality of communications would increase if it were possible to transfer life experience from brain to brain directly (this proposal corresponds to TRIZ's idea of an ideal end result). The quality of decision-making would also increase if a special device amplified the signals of the brain's "error detector" when an emotional state prevents a person from catching them. Special mention should be made of communication errors caused by speech: in the philosophy of language, there was even a direction of linguistic skepticism (Hugo von Hofmannsthal), which denied language the ability to express.

One of the reasons for the demand for improving the efficiency of brain interaction with the external environment is the need to prevent and eliminate the consequences of diseases. Thus, mental stress on a person is growing, as a result, the level of losses of the European Union from depression exceeded 300 billion. euro per year. Europe spends another 600 billion euros annually on the treatment of diseases of the central nervous system. In Russia, over the period 2000-2012, the number of children aged 0 to 14 years with a newly diagnosed neurological disease increased by 33.5%. Therefore, the development of screening devices, including those based on neuroengineering, neuroprosthetics methods is inevitable. At the same time, it is possible that electronic implants will allow disabled people to overcome traditional boundaries of perception: for example, to acquire night vision. This advantage of neuroprostheses may be of interest to the military and sports medicine.

_________________________
Technology development
In attempts to create a computer whose device efficiency would be closer to the brain (neurocomputer), it is inevitable to perform work on mapping the brain (English) in Russian, which is already being implemented in a number of international projects. The appearance of such a map will allow creating artificial channels of direct interaction with the brain as a side effect.

The expected appearance of such a part of Web 3.0 as the Internet of Things should have no less consequences. It will lead to the emergence of communication between things united in sensory networks. Future communications will inevitably become anthropocentric, due to at least the well-known concept of organoprojection (German: Organprojektionsthese), that is, their goal will be to build a certain individual space around a person. Such a goal will force a person to hone interfaces and data transfer protocols that are convenient for communication with things, configured to identify human individuality. The very fact of the possibility of communication of things (the future state is called a reasonable environment resembles the revival of matter (see hylozoism), from which only a step remains to the complete fusion of man with nature by transferring consciousness to artificial media (see digital immortality). The developments of the Internet of Things will create a technical foundation for the transition to the Neural network.

Evolutionary challenges
A number of thinkers develop the idea that in the 1st half of the XXI century, humanity will be at the point of bifurcation. For example, the warning of the founder of the Budapest Club Erwin Laszlo on the upcoming macro shift: the hypertrophied ecological footprint and social inequality bring the world to the moment when either a social collapse will occur (see also the death of humanity), or the metasystem transition promised by Valentin Turchin. In fact, the concept of singularity also speaks about the global transition. A common place is also the criticism of the substitution of traditional values by the standards of consumer society, which incite base motives in a person. Finally, the concern of philosophers is the risk of an uprising of artificial intelligence. An interesting variation on the topic of this risk was voiced by Sergey Sergeev, Doctor of Psychological Sciences: The World Wide Web is a complex system, and such systems are self-organizing. How the self-organization of the Network will affect a person is still unknown.

According to David Dubrovsky, Doctor of Philosophy, overcoming the accumulating global problems is possible by continuing anthropogenesis in one of two ways: either by changing the biological nature of man (eugenics), or by striving to embody reason in a non-biological self-organizing system. The second way seems preferable to Dubrovsky. Transhumanists Alexander Laurent see this path in the creation of a neural community as a carrier of the global brain. Jules de Rosnay (fr.) rus. in the book "L'Homme symbiotique" (1995), he suggested that the formation of a superhuman planetary consciousness would be possible only if there was a direct connection between brain activity and high-speed computer networks.

______________
Main Features
Main article: Neurocommunications (https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Нейрокоммуникации)

According to the definition of the Brainet, which is adhered to by the team of the laboratory of M. Nicolelis, it is a network united using direct brain-brain interfaces, consisting of the brains of many animals capable of interacting and exchanging information in real time, thereby forming a new type of computer devices — an organic computer. This definition is close to the concept of "weak Neural network" proposed by Anatoly Levenchuk (by analogy with strong and weak artificial intelligence).

Mainly in Russia, a Neural network is understood not as a new kind of computer, but as a future communication environment that will unite human (and not only) minds, collectives and intellectual agents on the basis of neurotechnologies, allowing them to exchange thoughts, feelings and knowledge contained in the inner world of participants (including implicit ones). The network package will be based on the principle of direct informational influence on brain centers, bypassing the senses. To build such a network, it is necessary to solve the problems of understanding the brain, creating special interfaces and network protocols.


Understanding the Brain

Solving the problem of reading the brain is of paramount importance for creating a Neural Network. The philosophy of consciousness has known for centuries the problem of the relationship between the body and consciousness (English: mind–body problem). The meaning of the problem is that the phenomena of subjective reality cannot be attributed physical properties. At the current stage, scientists are not yet able to establish even a finite number of states of consciousness, while for their digitization it is necessary to set an interval of values even when using fuzzy sets.


I/O Devices
See also: en:Cyberware (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberware )

The importance of interfaces is due to the fact that it is the interface that acts as a direct partner in communication for interacting objects. Neurocommunication requires both output devices for recording brain activity and input devices for influencing the brain. The fundamental possibility of creating interfaces for the exchange of information along the line "brain-computer-brain" is due to the following theses: 1) about the material unity of nature at the level of nanoparticles (this is one of the foundations of the concept of NBIC convergence; 2) on the invariance of information — the same information can be embodied and transmitted by different carriers in their physical properties (this is a special case of the principle of isofunctionalism of systems).

In scientific experiments, electronic implants were used as the first neurocomputer interfaces. Non-invasive solutions based on electroencephalography (EEG) are less effective so far[59]. Perhaps in the future, the main form of the interface will be invisible smart dust; at least, according to Mark Weiser's ubicomp concept, the most profound and perfect technologies are those that "disappear" (which is similar to the definition of an ideal technical system in TRIZ)


Communication protocols
According to A. Levenchuk, data transmission should be carried out according to a special protocol, which he called "NeuroVeb" (English: NeuroWeb). The latter will act as an application layer protocol on top of the TCP/IP network protocol. Data on the state and activity of the brain will be transmitted over the network, which is still difficult to characterize more specifically]. It is probably advisable for the system to function in a single, universal language of meanings (see Semantic Web), with machine translation between this language and the language of each individual brain."

_______
it continues...
 

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511

Industrial enterprises will be reimbursed for the costs of implementing digital platforms and software products

April 12, 2023
The Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation has published on the federal portal of draft regulatory legal acts a draft Government Decree on the procedure for allocating subsidies for the Introduction of Digital Platforms in Industry (On Amendments to the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 529 of April 30, 2019 and the Recognition of Acts of the Government of the Russian Federation and Certain Provisions of Certain Acts of the Government of the Russian Federation).

The costs of implementing digital platforms and software products will be subsidized in order to increase the level of "digital maturity" of industries.

During the competitive selection, the following projects will be supported as a priority:

- on the introduction of digital products and solutions developed as part of the implementation of particularly significant projects by industrial competence centers (ICCS) to replace foreign industry-specific digital products and solutions in key sectors of the economy;
- the use of digital products and solutions developed on the basis of modern technologies, including artificial intelligence technologies;
- projects of Russian organizations in respect of which the ANO "Digital Productivity Technologies" conducted an assessment of digital development and gave recommendations for improving labor productivity due to the growth of "digital maturity".


By the end of the year, all regional medical centers will work with artificial intelligence

07.04.2023
This year, the regions should introduce at least one medical device with artificial intelligence into their healthcare. This was told to "RG" by Deputy Minister of Health Pavel Pugachev.

"The regions are actively working on the introduction of medical devices with artificial intelligence technologies in healthcare. By the end of 2023, at least one such medical device should be introduced into one of the centralized subsystems of the state information system in the healthcare sector of the subject of the Russian Federation," he said.

According to Pugachev, there are already examples of successful use of artificial intelligence in healthcare. For example, in the Chelyabinsk region, it helps to reduce the time for describing an X-ray image. In the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, artificial intelligence based on the analysis of depersonalized electronic medical records of patients helps doctors to build an individual prognosis of the development of dangerous complications for the patient's health and identify possible concomitant diseases.

Pugachev drew attention to the fact that by the end of 2024, medical centers are required to report on the use of at least three solutions with AI, selecting them from the list approved by Roszdravnadzor. Today it presents 23 medical products using artificial intelligence technologies, 17 of them are domestic. The list is published on the portal of operational interaction of participants of the Unified State Information System in the field of healthcare (EGISZ).

~~


Digital ruble: what is it and when will Russians switch to this currency

01.04.2023
...
"From April 1, some pensioners will have special accounts to which funds will be credited, that is, the issuance of digital pensions will not be mass yet.

The amount of payments will be equivalent to a regular pension, the ability to transfer and spend money will also remain. But the funds will be credited in digital rubles.

The digital pension will differ from the usual one only in the form of the ruble. According to experts, it is too early to talk about the exact timing of the transfer of pensions to the digital ruble, but it will probably take from three to five years. During the transition period, pensioners will have the right to choose between a digital and a regular account
."

________________
"It's not the same", is it? In Russia, the authorities, the banks, the businesses, take good care of their people, not like in the West? Everything will be voluntary, right?
Well, at least in the " transition period."... :D
 

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511
Why is it that so often in different development strategies, different laws, occurs "until 2025"? What ends then? Or is it starting? Or does something End and another stage begin?

NEURONET
?


"Neuronet (English NeuroNet, NeuroWeb, Brainet) or Web 4.0 is one of the proposed stages of the development of the World Wide Web, in which the interaction of participants (people, animals, intelligent agents) will be carried out on the principles of neuro—communication. According to forecasts, it should replace Web 3.0 approximately in 2030-2040.

History
The ideas on which the concept of the Neural Network is based date back more than a decade. First of all, we are talking about the possibility of enhancing human intelligence by analogy with the increase in physical strength, voiced by William Ashby in "Introduction to Cybernetics" (1956), and then developed by Joseph Licklider in the article "Human-computer symbiosis" (1960)and Douglas Engelbart in the report "The Addition of human Intelligence: a conceptual framework" (1962) to the concept of the exocortex — an information processing system external to humans. In 1973, in the article "Towards a direct connection between the brain and the computer", Jacques J. Vidal first used the term neurocomputer interface, and in 1998 Phillip Kennedy and Roy Bakay from Emory University in Atlanta implanted the first such an interface to a patient named Johnny Ray.

Secondly, we are talking about the prospect of the emergence of a global brain, the idea of which goes back to the collection of short stories by H. G. Wells "The World Brain" (1936-1938). A little later, Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, developing the idea of Eduard Leroy about the noosphere, formulated in the "Phenomenon of Man" (1938-1940) the concept of the Omega point — the moment when the whole set of human consciousnesses will form into a higher consciousness. Valentin Turchin in the book "The Phenomenon of Science: A Cybernetic Approach to Evolution" (1973) introduced the concept of the quantum of evolution — a metasystem transition (Eng.) rus. As a result of one of these transitions, it will be possible to physically integrate individual nervous systems with the creation of potentially immortal human super-beings. The first scientific publication on the topic was an article by Gottfried Mayer-Kress and Kathleen Barczys "The global brain as a structure developing from a worldwide computer network, and the consequences of this conclusion for modeling" (1995). Since 2013, there have been experiments on the possibility of direct communication from brain to brain (Sam A. Deadwyler et al., Miguel Pais-Vieira et al., Carles Grau et al., Rajesh P. N. Rao et al.).

In 2011, the well—known creator of neurocomputer interfaces, Brazilian Miguel Nicolelis, in his book Beyond boundaries: the new neuroscience of connecting brains with machines - and how it will change our lives, proposed the word "Brainet" for the name of the future brain network. The term "neuronet" (English neuronet, neuro-net) was originally used to refer to artificial neural networks.

A new understanding of it as the name of the next generation of the global communication network after the Semantic Web began to take shape in Russia starting in 2012. In particular, in this sense, the Neural Network was mentioned in November of that year on polit.ru, and in March 2013 in an article of the Russian Reporter magazine devoted to the activities of participants in the Russia 2045 movement, with reference to the American futurist Raymond Kurzweil. Speaking at the TED conference in February 2005, Kurzweil predicted that by 2029 man would begin to merge with technology. And during a speech at the DEMO conference in Santa Clara (California) in October 2012, he talked about the future expansion of brain capabilities through cloud computing, that is, about the exocortex. In August 2013, the term Neuronet was voiced by Pavel Luksha, professor of the Moscow School of Management "Skolkovo" at the Foresight Fleet conducted by the Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI), as well as during presentations of the results of the foresight project "Education 2030".

On October 16, 2014 at the office of the Russian Venture Company (RVC), an expert seminar "The Neuronet Roadmap" was held with the participation of Stephen Dunn, director of Starlab Neuroscience Research; Karen Casey, creator of the Global Mind Project; Randal A. Kuhne, CEO of the Science Foundation Carboncopies.org and the founder of NeuraLink Co.; Mikhail Lebedev, Senior Researcher An employee at the Neuroengineering Center of the Department of Neurobiology at Duke University Medical Center (M. Nicolelis Laboratory); Evgeny Kuznetsov, Deputy General Director of RVC. The seminar was conducted by the co-founders of the Russian Neuronet Group Pavel Luksha and Timur Shchukin, as well as the head of the RVC Innovation Ecosystem Development Service Georgy Gogolev.

On behalf of the ASI [Agency for Strategic Initiatives], the group "Designers of Communities of Practice" prepared a report on future neural markets. On July 1, 2015, the first report on the National Technology Initiative (NTI), a long—term program that should ensure Russia's leadership in global technology markets by 2035, was presented to the President of Russia. The day before, in May of the same year, Neuronet was present among the 9 NTI markets discussed during the next "Foresight Fleet". ASI and RVC should conduct an examination of the NTI roadmap for the Neural network market and coordinate it with federal executive authorities by January 1, 2016
.


____________
Description
Background


Inefficiency of communications
The first prerequisite is the discrepancy between the high potential of the human brain and the state of those organs that are responsible for the information exchange of a person with the external environment. On the one hand, the brain is much more efficient than a computer: for a complete simulation of the brain, a supercomputer is needed that consumes approximately 12 GW, while the power consumption of the brain itself is only about 20 watts. On the other hand, the brain is used inefficiently, as evidenced by human communication errors (noises) caused by various reasons (physiological, psychological noises, semantic and socio-cultural barriers). An important barrier to perception is an undeveloped picture of the world, explained by a lack of experienced knowledge. According to Pavel Luksha, the quality of communications would increase if it were possible to transfer life experience from brain to brain directly (this proposal corresponds to TRIZ's idea of an ideal end result). The quality of decision-making would also increase if a special device amplified the signals of the brain's "error detector" when an emotional state prevents a person from catching them. Special mention should be made of communication errors caused by speech: in the philosophy of language, there was even a direction of linguistic skepticism (Hugo von Hofmannsthal), which denied language the ability to express.

One of the reasons for the demand for improving the efficiency of brain interaction with the external environment is the need to prevent and eliminate the consequences of diseases. Thus, mental stress on a person is growing, as a result, the level of losses of the European Union from depression exceeded 300 billion. euro per year. Europe spends another 600 billion euros annually on the treatment of diseases of the central nervous system. In Russia, over the period 2000-2012, the number of children aged 0 to 14 years with a newly diagnosed neurological disease increased by 33.5%. Therefore, the development of screening devices, including those based on neuroengineering, neuroprosthetics methods is inevitable. At the same time, it is possible that electronic implants will allow disabled people to overcome traditional boundaries of perception: for example, to acquire night vision. This advantage of neuroprostheses may be of interest to the military and sports medicine.

_________________________
Technology development
In attempts to create a computer whose device efficiency would be closer to the brain (neurocomputer), it is inevitable to perform work on mapping the brain (English) in Russian, which is already being implemented in a number of international projects. The appearance of such a map will allow creating artificial channels of direct interaction with the brain as a side effect.

The expected appearance of such a part of Web 3.0 as the Internet of Things should have no less consequences. It will lead to the emergence of communication between things united in sensory networks. Future communications will inevitably become anthropocentric, due to at least the well-known concept of organoprojection (German: Organprojektionsthese), that is, their goal will be to build a certain individual space around a person. Such a goal will force a person to hone interfaces and data transfer protocols that are convenient for communication with things, configured to identify human individuality. The very fact of the possibility of communication of things (the future state is called a reasonable environment resembles the revival of matter (see hylozoism), from which only a step remains to the complete fusion of man with nature by transferring consciousness to artificial media (see digital immortality). The developments of the Internet of Things will create a technical foundation for the transition to the Neural network.

Evolutionary challenges
A number of thinkers develop the idea that in the 1st half of the XXI century, humanity will be at the point of bifurcation. For example, the warning of the founder of the Budapest Club Erwin Laszlo on the upcoming macro shift: the hypertrophied ecological footprint and social inequality bring the world to the moment when either a social collapse will occur (see also the death of humanity), or the metasystem transition promised by Valentin Turchin. In fact, the concept of singularity also speaks about the global transition. A common place is also the criticism of the substitution of traditional values by the standards of consumer society, which incite base motives in a person. Finally, the concern of philosophers is the risk of an uprising of artificial intelligence. An interesting variation on the topic of this risk was voiced by Sergey Sergeev, Doctor of Psychological Sciences: The World Wide Web is a complex system, and such systems are self-organizing. How the self-organization of the Network will affect a person is still unknown.

According to David Dubrovsky, Doctor of Philosophy, overcoming the accumulating global problems is possible by continuing anthropogenesis in one of two ways: either by changing the biological nature of man (eugenics), or by striving to embody reason in a non-biological self-organizing system. The second way seems preferable to Dubrovsky. Transhumanists Alexander Laurent see this path in the creation of a neural community as a carrier of the global brain. Jules de Rosnay (fr.) rus. in the book "L'Homme symbiotique" (1995), he suggested that the formation of a superhuman planetary consciousness would be possible only if there was a direct connection between brain activity and high-speed computer networks.

______________
Main Features
Main article: Neurocommunications (https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Нейрокоммуникации)

According to the definition of the Brainet, which is adhered to by the team of the laboratory of M. Nicolelis, it is a network united using direct brain-brain interfaces, consisting of the brains of many animals capable of interacting and exchanging information in real time, thereby forming a new type of computer devices — an organic computer. This definition is close to the concept of "weak Neural network" proposed by Anatoly Levenchuk (by analogy with strong and weak artificial intelligence).

Mainly in Russia, a Neural network is understood not as a new kind of computer, but as a future communication environment that will unite human (and not only) minds, collectives and intellectual agents on the basis of neurotechnologies, allowing them to exchange thoughts, feelings and knowledge contained in the inner world of participants (including implicit ones). The network package will be based on the principle of direct informational influence on brain centers, bypassing the senses. To build such a network, it is necessary to solve the problems of understanding the brain, creating special interfaces and network protocols.


Understanding the Brain

Solving the problem of reading the brain is of paramount importance for creating a Neural Network. The philosophy of consciousness has known for centuries the problem of the relationship between the body and consciousness (English: mind–body problem). The meaning of the problem is that the phenomena of subjective reality cannot be attributed physical properties. At the current stage, scientists are not yet able to establish even a finite number of states of consciousness, while for their digitization it is necessary to set an interval of values even when using fuzzy sets.


I/O Devices
See also: en:Cyberware (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberware )

The importance of interfaces is due to the fact that it is the interface that acts as a direct partner in communication for interacting objects. Neurocommunication requires both output devices for recording brain activity and input devices for influencing the brain. The fundamental possibility of creating interfaces for the exchange of information along the line "brain-computer-brain" is due to the following theses: 1) about the material unity of nature at the level of nanoparticles (this is one of the foundations of the concept of NBIC convergence; 2) on the invariance of information — the same information can be embodied and transmitted by different carriers in their physical properties (this is a special case of the principle of isofunctionalism of systems).

In scientific experiments, electronic implants were used as the first neurocomputer interfaces. Non-invasive solutions based on electroencephalography (EEG) are less effective so far[59]. Perhaps in the future, the main form of the interface will be invisible smart dust; at least, according to Mark Weiser's ubicomp concept, the most profound and perfect technologies are those that "disappear" (which is similar to the definition of an ideal technical system in TRIZ)


Communication protocols
According to A. Levenchuk, data transmission should be carried out according to a special protocol, which he called "NeuroVeb" (English: NeuroWeb). The latter will act as an application layer protocol on top of the TCP/IP network protocol. Data on the state and activity of the brain will be transmitted over the network, which is still difficult to characterize more specifically]. It is probably advisable for the system to function in a single, universal language of meanings (see Semantic Web), with machine translation between this language and the language of each individual brain."

_______
it continues...
NEURONET (continuation)

Expected stages of development
Ideas about the stages in the development of the Neural network differ for obvious reasons. So, according to M. Lebedev, connecting the brain to global networks will be available to rich people by 2020, in another 5 years the Neural network will become a publicly available commodity, and by 2030 this topic will already lose scientific interest. From the point of view of Maxim Patrushev, Director of the Chemical and Biological Institute of the Baltic Federal University, the Neural Network will replace the Internet by 2035 at most. Raymond Kurzweil promises a hybridization of thinking after 2030. Hans Moravek expects the human brain to be connected to an artificial apparatus at the time of the technological singularity in 2045.

In Pavel Luksha's presentation at the expert seminar "Neuronet Roadmap" at RVC in October 2014, three stages were identified on the way to the Neuronet: 1) Biometrinet (pre-Neuronet) — from 2014 to 2024; 2) the origin of the Neural Network — from 2025 to 2035; 3) the emergence of a full—fledged Neural Network - after 2035. The stages of the formation of the Neural Network proposed in the report on neural markets developed for ASI are considered below.

First stage (2015-2020)
At the first stage, the sprouts of the future network appear unevenly. The human connectome is generally compiled, scientists are busy creating a universal connectome. Modeling of the brain as a whole has not yet been completed, but entire sections of it have already been modeled. The main trend of the first stage is the spread of wearable devices with biofeedback (biofeedback), household appliances are connected to the Internet of Things everywhere, augmented reality systems are being distributed. The bit depth of analog-to-digital converters is increased to 32 bits, which allows you to increase the dynamic range of interfaces. The problem of electricity transmission through the wearable computer network is being solved. Wearable devices accumulate arrays of big data, an independent niche of biometric BigData appears.

The first samples of artificial muscles are emerging, bioprostheses and exoskeletons are used to restore and enhance human abilities. Voiceless communication projects like Silent Talk have been completed. Bioelectronic (English) Russian medicine is beginning to crowd pharmaceuticals. Wearable devices are used in psychotherapy and group work. Business schools teach management of the simplest mental states (relaxation, concentration of attention).

Intelligent personal software agents are gradually spreading and improving. Neurotechnologies are entering the pet market because there are fewer legal restrictions on the introduction of new solutions. The experience of cooperative interaction (crowdsourcing, joint consumption) is gradually accumulating in the economy, and the software for collaboration is being improved.


Second stage (2020-2030)
There is a Neural Network prologue consisting of two directions. Firstly, it is a "biometric Web" as a network of devices that read the physiological parameters of a person. Brain mapping has already been completed, scientists have switched to modeling individual mental processes first, then to recreating mental states. Researchers are also interested in the evolution of the human brain and "neurogenome". High-temperature superconductors have dramatically reduced the cost of magnetoencephalography (MEG), neurointerfaces become inconspicuous, penetrate into the human body, and it becomes possible for them to interact with the unconscious. Augmented reality systems transmit not only images, but also sounds, smells, and tactile sensations. The cheapness of neural interfaces turns them into a generally accepted standard of human-computer interaction. There is a market for the sale of data on behavioral strategies, their suppliers are manufacturers of software for wearable devices.

Many body systems can be artificially duplicated: the immune system, peripheral nervous system, maintenance of blood composition, etc. The list of studied natural altered states of consciousness is being updated. There are automatic stimulators of states (at the same time, they support not only the functions of relaxation or increasing concentration), the exchange of emotions is used in group psychotherapy, accelerated learning systems have been created. Semantic translation (English) of Russian is implemented, the first precedents of the description of nervous semantics appear. The emergence of electronic biological standards for working with data and protocols adapted to subcellular processes is possible, the use of quantum cryptography is not excluded.

Secondly, we are talking about the "collaborative Web" — an organizational model that can involve a person with any competencies in an orderly, purposeful communication. Thanks to standardized APIs, various social networks are integrated into what can be described as a "Network of Networks". Traditional control systems no longer cope with processing the variety of signals generated by the Internet of Things. The methodology of soft systems and organizational flexibility are in vogue, the role of the computer as a mediator is growing in interaction support systems. Computer expert systems are used for risk management. The first experiments of the Neural Network are being conducted, the creation of neurocollectives is in demand in massively multiplayer online games.


The third stage (2030-2040)
At this stage, full-fledged foci of the Neuronet arise and gradually spread. Scientists accept the thesis about the sociality of consciousness, thinking and the psyche, as a result of which they move from modeling the brain to modeling collectives. Attempts are being made to assemble a model of hybrid intelligence. Sensors are approaching nanoscale, in addition to robots of ordinary size, collectives of quasi-living micro robots are emerging. Neurointerfaces based on MEG (magnetoencephalography) are as common as they are today[when?] mobile phones. Electronic devices are beginning to experience competition from optogenetic subcellular interfaces.

Many professional activities are carried out in altered states of consciousness, and artificial types of such states are constructed. The semantic web is supplemented by "biosemantics" (it means semantic analogues of the activity of biosystems). Protocols for the transmission of "raw" neural data are emerging, the first precedents of neural communities are emerging. The basis of such communities is the exocortex and people, collectives and intellectual agents united around it. In neurocollectives, it becomes possible to directly transfer experience through the attunement of people, the creation of artificial experience. The neural network helps in resolving individual and group conflicts.


The fourth stage (after 2040)
The neural network covers the entire field of communications.


________________________________
Infrastructure by country
USA

Back in 2001, the US National Science Foundation put forward the so-called NBIC initiative, one of the goals of which was stated to be human improvement. Subsequent projects were steps towards its implementation. In 2008, DARPA initiated the SyNAPSE (Systems of Neuromorphic Adaptive Plastic Scalable Electronics) program worth $106 million for 5 years, aimed at scaling neuromorphic technologies to the level of living beings. The program was attended by such computer giants as IBM (a division of IBM Research) and Microsoft. In 2010-2015, the Human Connectome Project was implemented with a budget of $100 million, whose task was to build a map of the connections of neurons in the human brain. In 2011, the National Institutes of Health funded 16 thousand grants in the field of neuroscience for a total of $ 5.55 billion.

In 2014, a biotechnology department was formed as part of DARPA, and a government BRAIN Initiative project was announced for the period 2014-2024, the costs of which will amount to $300 million annually. The goal of the latest project is to understand the human brain, to find new ways to treat and prevent neurodegenerative diseases (such as Alzheimer's disease, epilepsy and brain injury). The program provides for the participation of the private sector not only as performers (like Google X), but also in expenses. Thus, the following promises have been made by private foundations:

The Allen Institute for Brain Science will allocate $60 million annually to research brain activity leading to perception and decision-making;
Howard Hughes Medical Institute — $30 million dollars for the development of new visualization technologies and understanding how information is stored and processed in neural networks;
Salk Institute for Biological Studies — $28 million to develop a deep understanding of the brain from individual genes to neural networks and behavior;
Kavli Foundation — $4 million annually to expand knowledge in the field of treatment of disabling diseases and conditions.

Europe
European projects were a reaction to the American NBIC initiative. At the same time, Europe is interested in the prospects of gerontology in brain research, because by 2050 28% of the population aged 65 and older is expected on the Old Continent. The first project launched in 2005 was a joint project of the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne and IBM called the Blue Brain Project, dedicated to computer modeling of the human neocortex. Currently, a project is underway in the EU to coordinate between key participants in the research of human-computer interaction BNCI Horizon 2020, which replaced the FutureBNCI carried out in 2010-2011. Then, the European Union implements its own Human Brain Project worth 1.2 billion euros, which is part of the FET Flagships program. Its financing is provided by the eighth EU Framework Program for the Development of Scientific research and technology (2014-2020).

A consortium is working at the University of Twente (the Netherlands) to create an artificial analogue of the neuromuscular synapse for human-exoskeleton interaction. The Laboratory of Biorobotonics of the Free University of Berlin is engaged in biomimetics — scientists create robots based on "models" of snakes, earthworms, fish, program swarms of robots based on bee models.

Asia
In the East, the largest research projects are the 10-year Japanese Brain/MINDS Project and the 5-year Chinese Chinese Brain Project (implemented by Wuhan University, Hugo De Garis participated in it). Since 1999, more than 50 projects have been supported in China in the field of brain research and its dysfunctions, and in 2010 the concept of "Brainnetome" was formulated, covering 5 areas of study of brain neural networks: identification; dynamics and characteristics; functionality and dysfunction; genetic foundations; simulation and modeling. In 2011, the Research Plan for Neural Circuits of Emotion and Memory was launched, with a budget of 200 million yuan for 8 years. In 2012, the Chinese Academy of Sciences approved the strategic priority research program "Functional Connectome Project" worth 300 million yuan for 5 years (with the possibility of prolongation for 5-10 years). The purpose of the program is to compile a functional atlas of neural networks of the brain for perception, memory, emotions and the study of their disorders.

In March 2013, a joint Chinese-Australian project to create a new generation brain atlas "Brainnetome Atlas" was launched, it employs research teams from the Institute of Automation (Beijing) and Queensland Brain Institute (University of Queensland, Brisbane). Two years later, a technological initiative in the field of artificial intelligence called "China Brain" was proposed by the head of the Baidu search engine, Robin Li. He believes that this should be a state program of the same scale as the American Apollo. The initiative will focus on such areas as human-machine interaction, Big Data, autonomous transport, smart medical diagnostics, unmanned aerial vehicles, combat robots.


Russia
In 2009, Russia announced the creation of such an innovation management tool in the interaction of government, business and science as technology platforms. The first list of 27 technology platforms was approved by the decision of the Government Commission on High Technologies and Innovations in April 2011. Among the technological platforms was the "Medicine of the Future", within the framework of which a public analytical report "Neurotechnologies" was prepared. The conclusions of the report were that it is necessary to study the brain as a structure, organ and functional.

In January 2014, the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation approved the forecast of scientific and technological development prepared by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030. Among the promising areas of scientific research in the field of medicine and healthcare, the forecast included contact devices for the interaction of cells with artificial systems; integrated electronic control devices for monitoring the current state of the body, including in remote mode; visualization systems of the internal structure with ultra-high resolution. A month later, a list of 16 priority scientific tasks was formulated, including the task "Brain: cognitive functions, mechanisms of neurodegeneration, molecular targets for early diagnosis and treatment". Among the expected results of the task is the creation of brain—computer interfaces, methods of robot- and computer-mediated neurorehabilitation with directed brain stimulation, the development of an exoskeleton. The task is coordinated by Academician Mikhail Ugryumov, Head of the Laboratory of Nervous and Neuroendocrine Regulation at the Institute of Developmental Biology of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

As mentioned above, in 2015, the Neural Network was included among the key markets of the National Technology Initiative. The primary tool for the formation of STI is the implementation of foresights. Foresight methodology implies that the future is not predetermined and depends on our choice in the present. To influence the future, it is necessary to assemble the subjects of development. Thus, foresights are needed not so much to make a forecast, as to develop a common strategy of behavior by their participants, that is, to form a subject of development. It is assumed that the foresight should form an idea of what commercial products should appear based on new technologies. After that, there should be people interested in the prospect of creating such products. Finally, these persons should form a request for scientists on what technological barriers should be eliminated in order to create the necessary commercial products. Organizationally, future subjects of development are formed as working groups of NTI. The working Group on the Neural network market was headed by Andrey Ivashchenko, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the HimRar High Technology Center. There are also subgroups on neurointerfaces (headed by the head of the company "Neuromatics" Vladimir Statut), neurophysiology (already mentioned Maxim Patrushev), neurosemantics (first Vice-rector of the Moscow Institute of Technology Evgeny Pluzhnik).

Currently, research related to neurocommunications is carried out by the following research centers: Institute of Higher Nervous Activity and Neurophysiology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (G. A. Ivanitsky and A. A. Frolov), Institute of Biomedical Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, N. P. Bekhtereva Institute of the Human Brain of the Russian Academy of Sciences, I. M. Sechenov Institute of Evolutionary Physiology and Biochemistry of the Russian Academy of Sciences, NBICS-the Center of SIC "Kurchatov Institute", the Scientific Center of Neurology of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, the Research Institute of Molecular Biology and Biophysics of the SB RAMS, the Laboratory of Neurophysiology and Neurocomputer Interfaces of Moscow State University (A. Ya. Kaplan), the Research Institute of Neurocybernetics named after A. B. Kogan of the Southern Federal University (B. M. Vladimirsky and V. N. Kira), the laboratory of "Neurophysiology of Virtual Reality" of ITMO University (Yu. E. Shelepin), the laboratory of "Neuroimitating Information Systems and Neurodynamics" of the Nizhny Novgorod State University named after N. I. Lobachevsky, the Institute of Electronic Control Machines named after I. S. Brook. Separately, we should mention the ongoing projects of NeuroG, dedicated to the development of non-invasive devices for pattern recognition, and the reverse brain construction performed by the collective of the movement "Russia 2045" (V. L. Dunin-Barkovsky)
.

____
Risks
Technophobia is an integral part of modern culture, including cinema. Neurocommunication technologies have also not escaped criticism, which focuses on the following possible problems:

- neurohacking — hacking of neural networks with harm to the human body, the spread of specific viruses through the network;
- the threat of external control of people (including from artificial intelligence, as shown in the film "The Matrix"), violations of privacy;
- changing the human essence, turning people into biorobots;
- the stratification of humanity, the transformation of the elite into a new biological species of superhumans;
- objections of a religious nature.

The answer to critics is based on the idea that a person is not only what he is now, but also what he can be. For example, you can turn to the practice of group psychotherapy and especially to the works of Kurt Levin, who considered personality disorders as a result and manifestation of disturbed relationships with other people and the social environment. Levin believed that most effective changes occur in group interaction, and the Neural Network is just a communication medium in which perception barriers are removed. In particular, it cannot be ruled out that the formation of a Neural Network will lead to social changes that reduce the risks voiced."
 

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511
So, what happened in 2020? What "global disaster" has happened? What was the "global reaction"? And what did grandpa Klaus and many other strategic think tanks write in tons of material (everything written stands and has not been canceled)? That we should "use the crisis to transform our societies"? And so on.

Has the construction of a biometrinet started in 2020 (by 2025) as a move towards a neuronet (2030)?

And.. Who participated? All of them? Russia?

Did everything go according to plan?

And now they're fighting in an intractable conflict... (On the plan?)

..
The global crisis continues and we need swift, bold and urgent solutions..


________
But, of course," War " is much more interesting to watch. And it's being transmitted everywhere - under every alt-rock pops up some evidence of the war "that the Deep State is waging against Russia, and then it will wield it against China."
We are not for the Deep State.
Who's for them? Not me.

That is why this thread.
 

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511

Consistently ranked as one of Russia’s top universities, HSE University is a leader in Russian education and one of the preeminent economics and social sciences universities in eastern Europe and Eurasia. Having rapidly grown into a well-renowned research university over two decades, HSE University sets itself apart with its international presence and cooperation.

Our faculty, researchers, and students represent over 100 countries, and are dedicated to maintaining the highest academic standards. Our newly-adopted structural reforms support HSE University’s drive to internationalize and conduct groundbreaking research.

Now a dynamic university with four campuses, HSE University is a leader in combining Russian education traditions with the best international teaching and research practices. HSE University offers outstanding educational programmes from secondary school to doctoral studies, with top departments and research centres in a number of fields. We are ranked among the top 100 institutions worldwide in Politics & International Studies, Sociology, History, Economics & Econometrics in the QS – World University Rankings by Subject.

Since 2013, HSE University has been a member of the 5-100 Russian Academic Excellence Project, a highly selective government programme aimed at boosting the international competitiveness of Russian universities.

HSE cooperates with over 400 universities world-wide through bi- and multilateral projects, the European Commission and other schemes, as well as international associations and network memberships.

RT TV channel has created a documentary about science for the anniversary of the HSE (December 14, 2022)

To mark the 30th anniversary of the HSE, RT international television network has created a documentary film "The World 2052. See the future." It is dedicated to a part of HSE's scientific developments, research and projects that will change the world in the coming decades, transform the state, society and business, and change people's daily lives. The premiere of the film will take place on December 14 [2022] on the RTD documentary channel.

The RT film is a creative hypothesis of a team of authors, an attempt to see the future through the eyes of scientists and with their help. It tells about the consequences that in 30 years will lead to the transformation of the structure of the economy and society, climate change, research in neuroscience, the use of artificial intelligence, the widespread introduction of digital technologies, including in the humanities and law. The experts of the film were 15 leading scientists and researchers of the Higher School of Economics.

"The partnership with RT in the work on the film allows us to tell the mass audience about some of the unique research and development that our scientists are conducting, in the language of cinema. Of course, the film does not pretend to be a complete representation of the HSE scientific agenda," said Andrey Lavrov, Senior Director of Communications at the HSE. "It was shot in a popular science format and is intended for millions of RT viewers around the world to get acquainted with the technologies, opportunities and problems that our university is working on today, and experience a sense of pride in Russian science."
World 2052. See the future:

Science fiction writers enthusiastically described in their books the most incredible scenarios of the future. But with the development of science, what seemed like a fairy tale becomes part of real life. Neural networks draw abstract canvases, and machines learn more from our eyes than we know about ourselves. But will there be a place for people in this technological world?

Scientists from the Higher School of Economics, one of the largest universities in Russia, are confident that the future will bring discoveries and new difficulties, but a person will be able to adequately respond to any challenge.

In the movie "World 2052. See the Future", dedicated to the 30th anniversary of the HSE, you will learn what language our brain speaks, how to find a criminal by the genes of his relatives and why 80 is the new 20.
2052?



The club of Rome, 2052:

Published 2012 – Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth addressed the question of how humans would adapt to the physical limitations of planet Earth. It predicted that during the first half of the 21st century the human ecological footprint would stop growing-either through catastrophic “overshoot and collapse”-or through well-managed “peak and decline.”

So, where are we now? And what does our future look like? In the book 2052, Jorgen Randers, one of the co-authors of The Limits to Growth, issues a progress report and makes a forecast for the next forty years. To do this, he asked dozens of experts to weigh in with their best predictions on how our economies, energy supplies, natural resources, climate, food, fisheries, political divisions, cities, psyches, and more will evolve in the coming decades.

The good news: we will see impressive advances in resource efficiency, and an increasing focus on human well-being rather than on per capita income growth. But this change might not come as we expect. Future growth in population and GDP, for instance, will be constrained in surprising ways-by rapid fertility decline as result of increased urbanization, productivity decline as a result of social unrest, and continuing poverty among the poorest 2 billion world citizens. Runaway global warming, too, is likely.

With heart, fact, and wisdom, Randers guides us along a realistic path into the future and discusses what readers can do to ensure a better life for themselves and their children during the rising turmoil of the next forty years.


There is also a special website "2052 info".


with English subtitles ->
 
Last edited:

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511

Welcome to Sociostudies!

The interdisciplinary site devoted to the social sciences, which are key to the understanding of many societal issues. Sociaotudies encompass a range of disciplines that examine and explain human functioning on a variety of interlocking levels like anthropology, economics, history just to name a few.

Sociostudies aims at advancing social sciences by collecting and presenting theoretical and applied research, ideas and approaches driving from scholars from economics, political science, psychology, sociology and anthropology, global studies.

OUR PARTNERS (among them):

Faculty of Global Processes, Lomonosov Moscow State University - The Faculty of Global Processes in Lomonosov Moscow State University, founded in 2005, trains specialists in international political and economic relations, global and inter-regional processes.

Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting

The Center was founded May 25, 2011 by the Academic Council of The Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS)

President Leonid E. Grinin; Vice-President Andrey V. Korotayev; Honorary Research Fellows: David Christian, Peter Herrmann, Jason Powell, Barry Rodrigue

Affiliates: The Center’s activities are conducted in cooperation with a variety of organizations, including the “Uchitel” Publishing House, the International Big History Association, the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation, the International Foundation for the Survival &Development of Humankind, and the Faculty of Global Processes at Moscow State University. [and] Strategic Public Movement "Russia 2045"

17.07.2012 / Founded by Russian entrepreneur Dmitry Itskov in February 2011 with the participation of leading Russian specialists in the field of neural interfaces, robotics, artificial organs and systems. The main goals of the 2045 Initiative: the creation and realization of a new strategy for the development of humanity which meets global civilization challenges; the creation of optimale conditions promoting the spiritual enlightenment of humanity; and the realization of a new futuristic reality based on 5 principles: high spirituality, high culture, high ethics, high science and high technologies.

The main science mega-project of the 2045 Initiative aims to create technologies enabling the transfer of a individual’s personality to a more advanced non-biological carrier, and extending life, including to the point of immortality. We devote particular attention to enabling the fullest possible dialogue between the world’s major spiritual traditions, science and society. A large-scale transformation of humanity, comparable to some of the major spiritual and sci-tech revolutions in history, will require a new strategy. We believe this to be necessary to overcome existing crises, which threaten our planetary habitat and the continued existence of humanity as a species. With the 2045 Initiative, we hope to realize a new strategy for humanity's development, and in so doing, create a more productive, fulfilling, and satisfying future.

The "2045" team is working towards creating an international research center where leading scientists will be engaged in research and development in the fields of anthropomorphic robotics, living systems modeling and brain and consciousness modeling with the goal of transferring one’s individual consciousness to an artificial carrier and achieving cybernetic immortality. …(etc. - Russian transhumanist movement)

Future prospects of "2045": Initiative for society: 2015-2020 The emergence and widespread use of affordable android "avatars" controlled by a "brain-computer" interface... ; 2020-2025 Creation of an autonomous life-support system for the human brain linked to a robot, ‘avatar’, will save people whose body is completely worn out or irreversibly damaged. Any patient with an intact brain will be able to return to a fully functioning bodily life. Such technologies will greatly enlarge the possibility of hybrid bio-electronic devices, thus creating a new IT revolution and will make all kinds of superimpositions of electronic and biological systems possible.; 2030-2035 Creation of a computer model of the brain and human consciousness with the subsequent development of means to transfer individual consciousness onto an artificial carrier.; 2045 This is the time when substance-independent minds will receive new bodies with capacities far exceeding those of ordinary humans. A new era for humanity will arrive! Changes will occur in all spheres of human activity – energy generation, transportation, politics, medicine, psychology, sciences, and so on.”

(Note that the site itself (and probably the whole movement? I don't know) is with dates of last articles from 2018. Did because they fail to make rapid "progress", on the dates, and may have fallen apart? Maybe and they ideas are in the past?.. And yet somehow they guessed a fixed date 2020, with too bold a guess, maybe, but they guessed it anyway(?) as the beginning of something.. And I have no idea why they still stand as an affiliate of the Eurasian center when they've fallen apart, if they broke up.)

From 29.04.2012:


By the way, they also have another website: Global Future 2045 http://gf2045.com/, where Ray Kurzweil is in the pride of place. (This site, as well as 2045com and Sociostudies, are in English.)

 

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511
Authors: Grinin, Leonid; Grinin, Anton L.

In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in the 1950s. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call a phase of self-regulating systems). This period will be characterized by the breakthrough in medical technologies which will be capable to combine many other technologies into a single complex of MANBRIC-technologies (med-bio-nano-robo-info-cognitive technologies). The article offers some forecasts concerning the development of these technologies.

I. Production Principles, Production Revolutions and K-Waves

According to our theory (Grinin 2007a, 2007b, 2012b, 2013; Grinin and Grinin 2013a, 2013b), the whole historical process can be most adequately divided into four large periods, on the basis of the change of major developmental stages of the world productive forces, which we call production principles. The production principle is a concept which designates very large qualitative stages of development of the world productive forces in the historical process. It is a system of the unknown before forms of production and technologies surpassing the previous ones fundamentally (in opportunities, scales, productivity, efficiency, product nomenclature, etc.).

We single out four production principles:

1. Hunter-Gatherer.

2. Craft-Agrarian.

3. Trade-Industrial.

4. Scientific-Cybernetic.

Among all various technological and production changes that took place in history the following three production revolutions had the most comprehensive and far-reaching consequences for society:

1. Agrarian or Agricultural Revolution. Its result is the transition to systematic production of food and, on this base, to the complex social division of labor. This revolution is also connected with the use of new power sources (animal power) and materials.

2. Industrial, or Production Revolution as a result of which the main production concentrated in the industry and began to be carried out by means of machines and mechanisms, and at that not only the replacement of manual labor by machines occurred, but also biological energy was replaced by water and steam energy.

3. Cybernetic Revolution which have led to the emergence of powerful information technologies, and in future will stimulate transition to wide use of self-regulating systems.

Structural model of production revolutions. Within the proposed theory we suggest a fundamentally new idea that each production revolution has an internal cycle of the same type and, in our opinion, includes three phases: two innovative (initial and final) and one modernization phase (Grinin and Grinin 2013a, 2013b; see Fig. 1). At the initial innovative phase new advanced technologies emerge which spread in other societies and territories after a while. As a result of the final innovative phase of a production revolution the new production principle reaches its peak.

Between these phases there is the modernization phase – a long and very important period of distribution, enrichment, diversification of the production principle's new technologies (which appeared in the initial innovative phase) when conditions for a final innovative breakthrough are created


As is clear, the scientific-cybernetic production principle is at the beginning of its development. Only its first phase finished, and in the mid-1990s the second started. The second phase is proceeding now and will last till the early 2030s. The third phase is likely to begin approximately in the 2030s or the 2040s. At this particular time the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution should start.

As regards the 1990s – 2020s (the intermediate phase of the Cybernetic Revolution) the question is that the launch of a new innovative breakthrough demands that the developing countries reach the level of the developed ones, and the political component of the world catches up with the economic one; all this needs changes of the structure of societies and global relations (see about some aspects Grinin and Korotayev 2010b).[...]introduction and distribution of the new basic technologies do not occur naturally, but only within the appropriate social political environment (see Grinin 2012a, 2013; see also Perez 2002). In order for basic innovations to be suitable for business, structural changes in political and social spheres are necessary, eventually promoting their synergy and wide implementation in the world of business.[…]We believe that at present we witness the downward phase of the fifth K-wave which will last till the early or the mid-2020s.

III. Characteristics of the Cybernetic Revolution

What are self-regulating systems and why are they so important? Self-regulating systems are systems that can regulate themselves, responding in a pre-programmed and intelligent way to the feedback from the environment. These are the systems that operate with a small or completely without human intervention. Today there are many self-regulating systems around us, for example, the artificial Earth satellites, pilotless planes, navigators laying the route for a driver. Another good example is life-supporting systems (such as medical ventilation apparatus or artificial hearts).<…>But they are mostly technical and informational systems (as robots or computer programs). During the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution there will be a lot of self-regulating systems connected with biology and bionics, physiology and medicine, agriculture and environment. The number of such systems as well as their complexity and their autonomy will dramatically increase. Besides, they will essentially reduce energy and resource consumption. The very human life will become organized to a greater extent by such self-regulating systems (e.g., by monitoring of health, regimen, regulation of or recommendation concerning the exertions, control over the patients' condition, prevention of illegal actions, etc.).

Thus, we designate the modern revolution ‘Cybernetic’, because its main sense is the wide creation and distribution of self-regulating autonomous systems. Cybernetics, as is well-known, is a science of regulatory systems. Its main principles are quite suitable for the description of self-regulating systems.[...]As a result, the opportunity to control various natural, social and production processes without direct human intervention (that is impossible or extremely limited now) will increase.

Group of self-regulating properties:

Transition to self-regulating systems of various types and nature and qualitatively growing controllability of systems and processes.

Transition to the control over deeper and more fundamental processes and levels (up to subatomic particles), using tiny particles as building blocks (as is clearly seen in nano- and biotechnologies).

Control over humans activities to eliminate the negative influence of the so-called human factor, and control the lack of human attention in order to prevent dangerous situations (e.g., in transport) as well as to prevent human beings from using means of high-risk in unlawful or disease state (e.g., not allowing driving a vehicle while under the influence of alcohol or drugs).

The group of attributes of task-aware adaptation of materials and systems:

Radical increase in systems' abilities to choose optimal regimes for different objectives and tasks.

Individualization as trend of technology. The opportunities of self-regulation will allow choosing a particular decision for the variety of individual tasks, orders and requests (e.g., with 3D- and 4D-printers and choosing of programs adapted to specific individual needs). We also expect a rapid increase in the market of cosmetic corrections and plastic surgery of any kinds and other private orders to change individual organisms.

Resource and energy saving in many spheres.

Increasing opportunities in the synthesis of materials with previously lacking properties in biological and bionic (techno-biological) systems (as in Chemistry).

Miniaturization and micro-miniaturization as a trend of the constantly decreasing size of particles, mechanisms, electronic devices, implants, etc.

Medicine as a sphere of the initial technological breakthrough and the emergence of MANBRIC-technology complex.[…]Given the general vector of scientific achievements and technological development and taking into account that a future breakthrough area should be highly commercially attractive and have a wide market, we predict that the final phase (of self-regulating systems) of this revolution will begin somewhere at the intersection of medicine and many other technologies. Certainly, it is almost impossible to predict the concrete course of innovations. However, the general vector of breakthrough can be defined as a rapid growth of opportunities for correction or even modification of the human biological nature. In other words, it will be possible to extend our opportunities to alter a human body, perhaps, to some extent, its genome; to widen sharply our opportunities of minimally invasive influence and operations instead of the modern surgical ones; to use extensively means of cultivating separate biological materials, bodies or their parts and elements for regeneration and rehabilitation of an organism, and also artificial analogues of biological material (bodies, receptors), etc.

The drivers of the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will be medicine, bio- and nano-technologies, robotics, IT, cognitive sciences, which will together form a sophisticated system of self-regulating production. We can denote this complex as MANBRIC-technologies. As is known, there is the widely used abbreviation of NBIC-technology (or convergence), that is nano-bio-information and cognitive (see Lynch 2004; Dator 2006; Akayev 2012). However, we believe that this complex will be larger.

It should be noted that Leo Nefiodow has been writing about medicine as the leading technology of the sixth Kondratieff wave for a long time (Nefiodow 1996; Nefiodow and Nefiodow 2014; also in this volume). In general, we support his approaches (including the ideas about a new type of medicine), but it is important to point out that Nefiodow believes that it is biotechnologies that will become an integrated core of a new mode. However, we suppose that the leading role of biotechnologies will be, first of all, in their possibility to solve the major medical problems. That is why, it makes sense to speak about medicine as the core of a new technological paradigm. Besides, Nefiodow practically does not mention nanotechnology that will be of great importance in terms of the development of biotechnologies and medicine (they are supposed to play a crucial role in the fight against cancer; at the same time nanotechnologies will play a crucial role in other spheres too, in particular in energy and resources saving).

Thus, we suppose the following:

1. Medicine will be the first sphere to start the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution, but, later on, self-regulating systems development will cover the most diverse areas of production, services and life.

2. We treat medicine in a broad sense, because it will include (and already actively includes) for its purposes a great number of other scientific branches (e.g., the use of robots in surgery and care of patients, information technologies in remote medical treatment, neural interfaces for treatment of mental illness and brain research; gene therapy and engineering, nanotechnologies for creation of artificial immunity and biochips which monitor organisms; new materials for growing artificial organs and many other things to become a powerful sector of economy).

3. The medical sphere has unique opportunities to combine the abovementioned technologies into a single system.

4. There are also some demographic and economic reasons why the phase of self-regulating systems will start in medicine

Thus, today medicine is a very important sector of the economy, and tomorrow it will become even more powerful.



Biochips represent a new trend of combining medical and nanobiotechnologies. Biochips are able to register a wide range of physiological changes and respond to them or perform specific actions. In the long term, biochips will permit a continuous control of a person's health. There are many biochips in medicine today. For example, cardio-chips which are connected to the heart cells, register all necessary indices, and transmit them to devices.

Some biochips are so small in size that can be placed into a cell or tiny spheres of lipids, liposomes. They can be used for different purposes, for example, for targeted drug delivery.
Artificial organs are the key to resolving the urgent lack of enough donor organs. In medicine scientists already use or work to design different artificial organs: skin, retina, trachea, vessels, heart, ear, eye, limbs, liver, lungs, pancreas, bladder, ovaries. This will definitely increase life expectancy and can have various consequences. The artificial womb, for example, can provide an opportunity to have children for people irrespective of age and, perhaps, even gender.

Artificial immune system is an autonomous intellectual system against diseases and pathogenic organisms. For example, a nanorobot can travel through the body and collect pathogenic organisms into a special module, where they are decomposed. Organic compounds are further used by human organism.

Gene therapy is an explosively developing sector. It is a powerful tool for correcting hereditary diseases as well as developing new abilities that an organism lacked before. In our view, the crucial breakthroughs in gene therapy will be made in the treatment of genetic disorders and sport medicine.

Neural interfaces are an interaction between brain and computer systems that can be realized via electrode contact with head skin or via electrodes implanted into the brain. The implementation of neural interfaces is already wide-spread. They have developed neural interfaces that allow prosthetic devices to be moved via brain signals. Today, scanning techniques have been developed that allow studying brain signals. This gives an opportunity to reproduce any brain response.

So the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution

will create various self-regulating systems;

will start in medicine, which in the conjuncture with other fields will create the revolutionizing system of MBNRIC (med-bio-nano-robo-info-cognitive) technologies;

will improve the quality of life particularly of old people and disabled persons;

will increase average life expectancy (up to 100 years);

will lead to the emergence of opportunities to correct and modify human biology itself.

However, the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will have ambiguous consequences. On the one hand, vigorous growth of production volume will be expected. On the other hand, due to the diffusion of various self-regulating systems the number of specialists needed in different spheres will decrease. For instance, due to the development of self-regulation and remote medical care the number of doctors will significantly diminish.

The possibilities of medicine will hugely increase. At the same time the emergence of opportunities to radically change the human organism may bring about unprecedented ethical issues and seriously damage such vital aspects as family, gender, and morals. That is why it is very important to search for some optimal social, legal and other means beforehand. Then those changes will not be completely unexpected and their negative consequences could be minimized.



IV. The Phase of Self-Regulating Systems and the Sixth K-Wave

А-Phase of the sixth K-wave: acceleration to enter the final phase of the cybernetic revolution

The sixth K-wave will probably begin approximately in the 2020s.
Meanwhile the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution has to begin later, at least, in the 2030–2040s. Thus, we suppose, that a new technological mode will not develop in a necessary form even by the 2020s (thus, the innovative pause will take longer than expected). However, it should be kept in mind that the beginning of the K-wave upswing phase is never directly caused by new technologies. This beginning is synchronized with the start of the medium-term business cycle's upswing.

[…]Besides, we suppose that financial technologies have not finished yet its expansion in the world. If we can modify and secure them somehow, they will be able to spread into various regions which underuse them now. One should not forget that large-scale application of such technologies demands essential changes in the legal and other systems, which is absolutely necessary for developmental levelling in the world. Taking into account a delay of the new generation of technologies, the period of the 2020s may resemble the 1980s. In other words, it will be neither a growth recession, nor a rise, but rather an accelerated development (with stronger development in some regions and continuous depression in others).

Then, given the above mentioned favorable conditions, during this wave the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will begin. In such a situation it is possible to assume that the sixth K-wave's A-phase (the 2020–2050s) will have much stronger manifestation and last longer than that of the fifth one due to more dense combination of technological generations. And since the Cybernetic Revolution will evolve, the sixth K-wave's downward B-phase (2050 – the 2060/70s), is expected to be not so depressive, as those during the third or fifth waves. In general, during this K-wave (2020 – the 2060/70s) the Scientific and Information Revolution will come to an end, and the scientific and cybernetic production principle will acquire its mature shape.”

~

2020 again. Cybernetics and transhumanists have some rare luck when, in earlier years, they make predictions about the future, they always know this year 2020 as the beginning of miscellaneous things. How does this work...


Last name: Grinin
Name: Leonid
Leonid E. Grinin, PhD, is a Russian philosopher of history, sociologist, political anthropologist, economist, and a scholar of historical trends and future studies. He is Senior Research Professor at the Institute for Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow and Leading Research Fellow of the Laboratory for Destabilization Risk Monitoring of the National Research University Higher School of Economics. Grinin is Deputy Director of the Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting (Russian Academy of Sciences). He is also is Research Professor and Director of the Volgograd Center for Social Research. He is Editor-in-Chief of the international journals Social Evolution & History and the Journal of Globalization Studies, as well as co-editor of the international almanacs Evolution, History and Mathematics, and Kondratieff Waves.

Grinin`s academic interests lie in the sphere of social laws, social evolution, driving forces of historical development, the theory of historical process and its periodization and certain aspects (the productive and political ones), evolution of statehood.

Grinin`s academic research in the field of Global Studies, futurology and Big History is connected with the analysis of modern problem of globalization and modernization, forecasts of the world political and social-economic development, current global crisis, economic cycles of different duration and their modeling, information-scientific revolution and its influence on global processes, history of globalization and periodization of global process analysis of global trends in historical processes, comparison of global processes in nature and society. Together with Alexander Markov and Andrey Korotayev, he studies regularities common to biological and social macroevolution.

Dr. Grinin is the author of more than 470 scholarly publications in Russian, English and Chinese including 30 monographs. These monographs include Philosophy, Sociology, and the Theory of History (4th ed. Volgograd: Uchitel, 2007, in Russian); Productive Forces and Historical Process (3rd ed. Мoscow: KomKniga, 2006, in Russian); State and Historical Process (3 vols. 2nd ed. Moscow: KomKniga, 2009–2010, in Russian); Social Macroevolution: World System Transformations (Moscow: LIBROKOM, 2009, in Russian; with Andrey Korotayev); Macroevolution in Biological and Social Systems (Мoscow: LKI/URSS, 2008, in Russian; with Alexander V. Markov and Andrey V. Korotayev); Global Crisis in Retrospective: A Brief History of Upswings and Crises (Moscow: LIBROKOM, 2010, in Russian; with Andrey Korotayev); The Evolution of Statehood: From Early State to Global Society (Saarbrücken: Lambert Academic Publishing, 2011). The latest monographs are: From Confucius to Comte: The Formation of the Theory, Methodology and Philosophy of History (2012, in Russian); Macrohistory and Globalization (2012); Cycles, Crises, and Traps of the Modern World-System (2012, in Russian, with Andrey Korotayev), The Big History of Development of the World: Cosmic Evolution (2014; in Russian), Great Divergence and Great Convergence. A Global Perspective (2015; with Andrey Korotayev), The Cybernetic Revolution and the Forthcoming Epoch of Self-Regulating Systems (2016; with Anton Grinin), Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery (2016; with Andrey Korotayev, Arno Tausch)

In 2012 Leonid E. Grinin was awarded with the Gold Kondratieff Medal by the International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation.



Leonid Grinin

Senior Research Professor, National Research University Higher School of Economics

Leonid E. Grinin is a Russian a scholar of technological trends and future studies, philosopher of history, and economist. He has PhD and is Senior Research Professor at the Laboratory for Destabilization Risk Monitoring at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. He is also Senior Research Professor at the Institute for Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow and serves as Director of the Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting (Russian Academy of Sciences). He is co-editor of the international journals Social Evolution & History and the Journal of Globalization Studies, as well as co-editor of the international almanacs Evolution, History and Mathematics, and Kondratieff Waves Editor-in-Chief of the journal Age of Globalization (in Russian).

He is the author of more than 500 scholarly publications including more than 30 monographs in Russian, English, Chinese, Spanish and German.

Grinin`s academic research in the field of Global Studies and futurology is connected with the analysis of modern problem of globalization and modernization, forecasts of the world political and social-economic development, current global crisis, economic cycles of different duration and their modeling, Cybernetic revolution and its influence on global processes, history of globalization, comparison of global processes in nature and society.”


COVID-19 lockdowns may be gradually easing, but anxiety about the world’s social and economic prospects is only intensifying. There is good reason to worry: a sharp economic downturn has already begun, and we could be facing the worst depression since the 1930s. But, while this outcome is likely, it is not unavoidable.

To achieve a better outcome, the world must act jointly and swiftly to revamp all aspects of our societies and economies, from education to social contracts and working conditions. Every country, from the United States to China, must participate, and every industry, from oil and gas to tech, must be transformed. In short, we need a “Great Reset” of capitalism.

There are many reasons to pursue a Great Reset, but the most urgent is COVID-19…

Jun 3, 2020
 

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511

GLOBAL TECHNOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES IN THE LIGHT OF CYBERNETIC REVOLUTION AND THEORY OF LONG CYCLES

Authors: Grinin, Leonid; Grinin, Anton L. /Journal: Journal of Globalization Studies. Volume 6, Number 2 / November 2015

In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make some predictions about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution which, we think, started in the 1950s. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call the phase of self-regulating systems). This period will be characterized by breakthroughs in medical technologies which will manage to combine many other technologies into a single complex of MBNRIC-technologies (med-bio-nano-robo-info-cognitive technologies). The article offers some predictions concerning the development of these technologies.

Keywords: production revolutions, production principle, Industrial Revolution, Cybernetic Revolution, self-regulating systems, Kondratieff waves, fourth K-wave, fifth K-wave, sixth K-wave, World System, center, periphery, medicine, biotechnologies, nanotechnologies, robotics, cognitive technologies.

* This research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project No 15-18-30063)."


THE CYBERNETIC REVOLUTION AND THE FORTHCOMING EPOCH OF SELF-REGULATING SYSTEMS

Moscow: Moscow branch of Uchitel Publishing House, 2016. – 216 pp. / Authors: Grinin, Leonid; Grinin, Anton L.

The monograph presents the ideas about the main changes that occurred in the development of technologies from the emergence of Homo sapiens till present time and outlines the prospects of their development in the next 30–60 years and in some respect until the end of the twenty-first century.

What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution; and 3) the Cybernetic one. The book introduces the theory of production revolutions which is a new valuable explanatory paradigm that analyzes causes and trends of dramatic shifts in historical process. The authors describe the course of technological transformations in history and demonstrate a possible application of the theory to explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. They analyze the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and forecast the main shifts in the next half a century. On this basis the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted as ‘Сybernetic’. They make some predictions about its development in the nearest five decades and up to the end of the twenty-first century and show that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. The authors argue that the transition to the starting final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (in the 2030–2040s) will first occur in the field of medicine (in some its innovative branches). In future we will deal with the started convergence of innovative technologies which will form the system of MANBRIC-technologies (i.e. the technological paradigm based on medicine, additive, nano- and bio- technologies, robotics, IT and cognitive technologies). The monograph gives an outline of the future breakthroughs in medicine and some other technologies (between the 2010s and 2070s).

Contents

Introduction. Between Human and Post-Human Revolutions or What Future is Awaiting Us?

Chapter 1. Global Technological Transformations: Theory and History

Chapter 2. The Characteristics and the Logic of the Cybernetic Revolution. MANBRIC-Technologies

Chapter 3. Medicine in the Cybernetic Revolution: Medicine and Medical Technologies as a Breakthrough to Control Over Human Body

Chapter 4. Biotechnologies within the Cybernetic Revolution: Biotechnologies and Creation of Self-Regulating Systems

Chapter 5. Nanotechnologies as the Way to Mastering the Microworld

Chapter 6. Robotics and Other Technologies in the Cybernetic Revolution

Afterword. Threats and Risks of the Future World of Self-Regulating Systems

Appendix 1. Some Issues in the Theory of Historical Process

Appendix 2. Mathematical Interpretation of Historical Process

Appendix 3. The Sixth Kondratieff Wave and the Cybernetic Revolution

Amazonka, kindle edition (322.00):)

Home The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures Chapter

The Cybernetic Revolution and the Future of Technologies

Leonid Grinin & Anton Grinin

Chapter First Online: 03 January 2020

Part of the World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures book series (WSEGF)

Abstract

The present paper analyzes the evolution of technology from the beginning of human history. We introduce a new paradigm to analyze the causes and trends of the global evolution. We describe the direction of technological transformations and discuss and explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. We also present a detailed analysis of the latest technological revolution, which we denote as ‘Cybernetic,’ and give some forecasts about its development up to the end of the twenty-first century. It is shown that the expansion of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. We argue that the technological transition of the final phase of the Cybernetics revolution will start in medicine, which is to be the keystone of technological convergence forming the system of MANBRIC-technologies (based on medicine, additive, nano-, bio-, robotics, IT, and cognitive technologies). Today, we are at the threshold to the new era of unprecedented control of a human body, considerable life extension, organ replacement, brain–computer interfaces, robotics, genome editing, etc. The authors describe the mechanisms of technological development and discuss possible risks as well as the limits of post-human revolution.
...
Editor information, Editors and Affiliations

Higher School of Economics, National Research University, Moscow, Russia - Prof. Dr. Andrey V. Korotayev

Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA - Dr. David J. LePoire
...
Acknowledgements

This chapter is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) in 2019 with support by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project No. 17-02-00521).
**
Eurasian center for big history and system forecasting, which points for its affiliate (seemingly no longer existing) the Russian transhumanist movement "Russia 2045":

President Leonid E. Grinin, Vice-President Andrey V. Korotayev

Our New Webinar is Coming Soon

We are delighted to announce that we will hold our first webinar in 2023 with the Eurasian Center for Megahistory and System Forecasting in Moscow, the Symbiosis School for Liberal Arts in Pune, and the Oberlin Big History Movement (OBHM) in Tokyo. We especially appreciate that Oberlin technically supports it.

Big History Studies from Russia: Complexity, Crises, Singularities / Date: Sunday April 16, 2023

Speakers:

Dr. Alexander Panov (Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow State University), "Akop Nazaretyan's Contributions to Big History Research"

Dr. Andrey Korotayev (Senior Research Professor, HSE University and Eurasian Center for Mega history and System Forecasting), "Complexity Growth Patterns in Big History: Preliminary Results of a Quantitative Analysis"

...

Korotayev is another prominent big historian and a board member of the International Big History Association (In terms of disciplines and specialties, he is macrosociologist, comparative political scientist, and historian. Please see his bio: <https://www.socionauki.ru/authors/korotayev_a/&gt;;). He has jointly produced many big-history publications including the Big History Anthology series (2015−2017), A Big History of Globalization (2019), The 21st Century Singularities and Global Futures (2020), and his April talk would be a midterm report of his recent research. That is also connected to big-history studies of Nararetyan and Panov.

SocioStudies: Andrey V. Korotayev

Head and Professor of the Laboratory for Monitoring of Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, as well as a Senior Research Professor at the Institute for African Studies and the Institute of Oriental Studies of Russian Academy of Sciences. He is the author of over 400 scholarly publications, including such monographs as Ancient Yemen (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995), World Religions and Social Evolution of the Old World Oikumene Civilizations: A Cross-Cultural Perspective (Lewiston, NY: The Edwin Mellen Press, 2004), Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of World System Growth (Moscow: URSS Publishers, 2006; with Artemy Malkov and Daria Khaltourina), and Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa (Moscow: URSS, 2006; with Daria Khaltourina). At present, together with Askar Akayev and Georgy Malinetsky, Dr. Korotayev coordinates the Russian Academy of Sciences Presidium Project ‘Complex System Analysis and Mathematical Modeling of Global Dynamics’. He is a laureate of the Russian Science Support Foundation Award in ‘The Best Economists of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Nomination (2006).

By the way, curious (at least for me) that in the Russian version of Sociostudies - socionauki.ru (SocioSciences, nauka = science) - on the page of the Eurasian center for big history and system forecasting (which there is called Euro-Asian), we read:

Barry Rodrigue's Manifesto at the GF2045 Congress:

"The future is a dimension that all life forms aspire to"

The future is the dimension that all life forms aspire to. Technological innovations, which are developing exponentially, are especially fast in the movement of modern society.

Such innovations have both positive and negative consequences. Some innovations improve the quality of life (in the field of medicine, nutrition and housing), while some technologies provide only entertainment. And some bring imbalance and inequality into the world, such as the exclusion of an entire group of people from the world process or the degradation of the planetary biome. And the development of weapons of mass destruction carries certain negative consequences.

Basically, these problems are not premeditated. Few people intentionally try to harm others. Most tragedies, such as the chemical accident in Bhopal, the nuclear accident in Chernobyl or the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, were an accident. Nevertheless, these problems express the values, concerns and priorities of today's world civilization.

Monetary remuneration and what can be purchased with it has become the general standard of the modern world. Consumerism on a large scale exists alongside poverty. Even the poorest segments of the population tend to banal forms of consumerism. This is the result of market monopolies and comprehensive mass media. It also indicates how much we don't value basic necessities like water or trees until they are marketed under the "Perrier" or "Ikea" brand.

Natural world resources and technological creativity are often very expensive phenomena. For example, in search of short-term profits, society uses obscene outdated energy systems. The result is polluted cities, reduced oil resources. This threatens future generations with health problems and environmental degradation, lack of energy resources to correct these problems. Such contradictions can be seen everywhere in the modern world. Indeed, there is a threat of the emergence of "islands" inhabited by an educated and wealthy elite that are surrounded by death and decay.

The rapid eradication of plant and animal species and ecosystems in the world seriously threatens the collective biome of the planet. All the world's crises are interconnected, so the national management of technological innovation, production and marketing is at the center not only of our well-being, but also of survival on earth.

How can innovation address issues of values and priorities?

Most people on earth do not have access to high-tech technologies. 30% of people have access to information and computer technologies. In fact, this is not a significant figure: only 2 billion people out of 7. In addition, most of these "unconnected" citizens lack clean water, high-calorie food, medical care, normal living conditions, and education. If these people were not cut off from the global process, they would have made a huge contribution to the development of global innovation.

Although innovation is often presented as a technological process, it needs to be applied everywhere and to everything. We need innovations in family affairs and in business. Innovations should be directed to the ecological balance of species and the destruction of the inorganic habitat. We need to find alternatives to war and the arms industry. That is, innovation is a process that must be applied to everything that exists.

Global mechanisms are needed to review and regulate innovations. Risky and irresponsible implementation of technological and other types of innovations just for the sake of profit, without considering the consequences, is a serious threat. This is especially true if we take into account the destructive and rapid nature of genetic engineering and nano-technologies. Thus, in tandem with technological innovations, we need innovations of social mechanisms to regulate them.

At the moment, innovation is a kind of patchwork quilt. In some cases, it is created by individuals or groups of people, in some by research centers, institutes or agencies, and sometimes by national or international programs. Sometimes it comes from military or theoretical adaptation, sometimes from the needs of society, sometimes from the needs of corporations. It acts vertically, horizontally or from side to side. The Internet, both Twitter and e-mail, have significantly influenced the world community. But although the exchange of innovations takes place through magazines, conferences and personal communication, for the most part it is messy, uncoordinated and goes unnoticed.

A well-coordinated paradigm shift is needed on a global scale.

The hostile, anti-intellectual, money-oriented nature of political and corporate activities slows down the process of change. I am particularly concerned about the fact that technological innovations will become an excuse for the destruction of our planet. The idea that technology gives us the right to fully consume the world around us – a modern form of deus ex machine, the substitution of technology for the gods – is embedded in the principle of "technology will save us."

Although there is a progressive movement within capitalism, government, religion and education, it is too small and too late. State and corporate capitalism are two sides of the same coin, which cannot buy our salvation. The constant growth and income of capitalism cannot be maintained, especially in our overpopulated and stratified world. But still, we need encouragement and remuneration of labor and innovation, which can only be provided by a free market system.

Thus, the only chance for a paradigm shift remains in the hands of those who can collect and distribute innovations in the world most quickly and efficiently. This will require global cooperation of scientists, businessmen, community leaders, citizens, workers, poor and rich, philosophers and spiritual leaders, social activists and many others. That is, a new partnership will be required.

How can this be done? What process should we follow?

At the Moscow Congress Global Future 2045, we heard wonderful and innovative ideas that are certainly very important, but the MAIN QUESTION is how to connect them, how to promote them, how to popularize them - in order to create a new world consciousness, a new world civilization - in what my friend David Hooks calls "global enlightenment".

Socionauki dot ru: International Congress "Global Future 2045":

February 20, 2012

On February 17-20, 2012, the international congress "Global Future 2045" was held in Moscow. Leading scientists of various specialties, experts and public figures from Russia, the USA, Canada, the Netherlands, and other countries of the world gathered at the international congress to formulate forecasts for the development of technologies in the future and to develop a new paradigm for the development of human civilization.

The goal of Global Future 2045 is to identify global threats and prospects associated with the development of the latest technologies, as well as to develop recommendations for the implementation of the most favorable future option in the context of their use.

The congress was organized by the Strategic Public Movement "Russia 2045" and the Euro-Asian Center for Megahistory and System Forecasting of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

After the official opening ceremony, the reports of the world's leading experts on the prospects of human development and its various aspects began. This part of the congress was opened by one of the leading inventors of our time, Raymond Kurzweil, the author of the concept of Technological Singularity, the winner of the MIT–Lemelson Award, the world's largest innovation award, and the US National Medal in Technology. His report is called "Acceleration of technological development in the XXI century: impact on business, economy, society".

Among the participants of the congress are the editors-in-chief of our journals: Hakob Nazaretyan, Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotaev, as well as many authors with whom we cooperate. On the official website of the congress, you can get acquainted with the list of participants, the program and other information materials - the official website of the congress.

Speeches of our scientists: Nazaretyan A. P., Fred Spear, Grinin L. E., Panov A.D.

Resolution Global Future 2045, Dmitry Itskov, President of New Media Stars Holding, founder of the Russia 2045 movement, President of the GF2045 Congress

I put a link to the English version gf2045.com, which is the same as the Russian version gf2045.ru . (It should be noted that the latest articles on the site are dated 2013.) Let us recall the main thing about the organization of this Congress, from their own presentation.


We argue that the technological transition of the final phase of the Cybernetics revolution will start in medicine, which is to be the keystone of technological convergence forming the system of MANBRIC-technologies (based on medicine, additive, nano-, bio-, robotics, IT, and cognitive technologies).

If an "S" is added to this acronym - for example, indicating Socio, or Systems, or Supercomputers.. - it becomes a MANBRICS. :)
 

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511
DOES COVID-19 ACCELERATE THE CYBERNETIC REVOLUTION AND TRANSITION FROM E-GOVERNMENT TO E-STATE?

Authors: Grinin, Leonid; Grinin, Anton L. ; Korotayev, Andrey

Almanac: Kondratieff waves: Processes, Cycles, Triggers, and Technological Paradigms

We elsewhere pointed out that the forthcoming sixth K-wave will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (the 2030s – the 2070s). Thus, the technological and economic tide will be more powerful than in the fifth K-wave. So any factors that may change the time or way of the Cybernetic Revolution will also affect the sixth K-wave. In this article we will analyze one of such factors. Among many influences that the pandemic has and will have on society and the World System as a whole, one of the most important is the acceleration of the start of a new technological wave and a new technological paradigm in the near future. This impact is determined by the growing need for the development of a number of areas in medicine, bio- and nanotechnology, artificial intelligence and others, which we denote as ‘MANBRIC-convergence’. It is shown that the experience of dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic has confirmed that the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will begin in the 2030s at the intersection of a number of medical, bio-, digital and several other technologies, with medical needs as an integrating link. Among the multitude of self-regulating systems in the economy and life (which, in our opinion, will flourish during the Cybernetic Revolution) socio-technical self-regulating systems (SSSs) will play a special role. Thus, COVID-19 becomes a powerful impetus not only in terms of accelerating technological development and approaching the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution, but also in changing sociopolitical (and socio-administrative) relations in the forthcoming decades.

Keywords: COVID-19, Cybernetic revolution, final phase, self-regulating socio-technical systems, e-government, e-state, vaccines, biotechnology, AI.

Sciencedirect

COVID-19 pandemic as a trigger for the acceleration of the cybernetic revolution, transition from e-government to e-state, and change in social relations

Authors: Leonid Grinin (HSE University, Moscow; Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia), Anton Grinin (Moscow State Lomonosov University, Russia), Andrey Korotayev (HSE University, Moscow; Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia)

Received 7 April 2021, Revised 4 November 2021, Accepted 7 November 2021, Available online 12 November 2021, Version of Record 19 January 2022.

(excerpts)

Highlights

• COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the MANBRIC-convergence.

• MANBRIC-convergence involves medical, additive, bio-, nano-, info-, robotics, and cognitive technologies.

• COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating start of final phase of Cybernetic Revolution.

• Final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will begin in the 2030s.

• A special role will be played by socio-technical self-regulating systems (SSSs).

Abstract

Among many influences that the pandemic has and will have on society and the World System as a whole, one of the most important is the acceleration of the start of a new technological wave and a new technological paradigm in the near future. This impact is determined by the growing need for the development of a number of areas in medicine, bio- and nanotechnology, artificial intelligence and others, which we denote as “MANBRIC convergence”. It is shown that the experience of dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic has confirmed that the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will begin in the 2030s at the intersection of a number of medical, bio, digital and several other technologies, with medical needs as an integrating link. Among the multitude of self-regulating systems in the economy and life (which, in our opinion, will flourish during the Cybernetic Revolution) socio-technical self-regulating systems (SSSs) will play a special role. Thus, COVID-19 becomes a powerful impetus not only in terms of accelerating technological development and approaching the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution, but also in changing sociopolitical (and socio-administrative) relations in the forthcoming decades.

Introduction, 1.1. Multidimensional impact of COVID-19

By now, there have been quite a number of articles about the coronavirus (COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)) and its effect on society (e.g., Atkeson 2020; Baker et al., 2020; L. Grinin 2020; Irshad 2020; Jasiński and Bąkowska 2020; see also further references below). In addition to research on possible strategies for dealing with the pandemic (including its consequences) and various medical aspects, many other issues are being studied, from economic consequences to the impact on the climate (Aslam et al., 2020; Belhadi et al., 2020; Brammer et al., 2020; Chakraborty and Maity 2020; Forster et al., 2020; Yoo and Managi 2020; see also below).

So far, with the exception of the book by Klaus Schwab and Thierry Malleret "COVID-19: The Great Reset" (Schwab and Malleret 2020), the study of this new phenomenon still seems mostly unsystematic.

However, one may argue that the COVID-19 pandemic can become an important driver of even greater changes (e.g., Brammer et al., 2020; Brem et al., 2020; Hofbauer and Komlosy 2020), whose nature and consequences, however, are still mostly unclear. We believe that the COVID-19 pandemic will significantly accelerate the processes that we have already discussed in our other works (Grinin, L., Grinin, A., 2015; 2016; Grinin et al., 2017a; 2017b; 2020; Grinin, Korotayev 2015, Tausch 2016). It will also speed up some other processes that deserve close attention.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly changed the public's focus; these changes are likely to persist for a long time. Ultimately, this may lead to significant technological transformations, which, in our opinion, are rather underestimated.

In the present article we would like to show that the COVID-19 pandemic has become a powerful trigger which will both accelerate technological development in medicine and other areas – especially in the ones forming the MANBRIC-system – and, at the same time, catalyze the convergence of these areas. This is greatly supported by the sharply increased demand for the development of a number of fields of medicine, bio and nanotechnology, artificial intelligence and others. In a series of papers, including ones on the pages of this journal (Grinin et al., 2017; 2020) we made some forecasts concerning a new technological wave making the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution, which is likely to start in the 2030s to 2040s. In the present article, we refine our forecast, arguing with greater confidence that due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will begin in the 2030s, that is, in the next 10 – 15 years. The COVID-19 pandemic has not only confirmed our forecasts, but also allowed us to significantly refine and enrich them.

We also argue that among numerous self-regulating systems in production, economy and everyday life that will thrive during the final phase, the socio-technical self-regulating systems (SSS) will play a special role. With the help of AI, they will regulate a variety of administrative and social relations. During the pandemic, there appeared an urgent need for regulation of public life, which served as an impetus for the development of such systems. Meanwhile, the employment of socio-technical self-regulating systems will almost inevitably lead to a noticeable change in social and even political relations in society, shifting them towards e-government and e-state.

The present article also devotes considerable attention to the analysis of the latter, while addressing such an issue as the rapidly growing threat to privacy and personal data.

Combining technological and social forecasts in a single study appears all the more important, since a systematic research of the relationships and interactions between the rapid development of various technologies, especially AI technologies, medicine and biotechnology, on the one hand, and social and political relations, on the other, unfortunately, remains insufficient. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown some mechanisms of such system connections, thus helping improve forecasts.



[…]Among the existing and future self-regulating systems, we pay special attention to what we designate as socio-technical self-regulating systems (SSS). These are technologies designed to regulate administrative and social relations in society through combining the AI with other technologies; in some respects, they are able to perform functions of administrative/ law enforcement bodies.

The focus of this article can be formulated in the following questions:

1) How can the coronavirus pandemic affect the speed and canalization of the approaching final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution, as well as the acceleration of the MANBRIC-convergence?

2) How does COVID-19 influence the formation of socio-technical self-regulating systems and how can their development affect people's social behavior and formation of an e-state in the future?

Despite the magnitude of these problems, they are closely interconnected, so we believe that they should be studied in a single set.

1.3. Theoretical and practical contributions of this paper

This paper contributes to the analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic as a trigger for the acceleration of the Cybernetic Revolution. This considerably supports the ideas of the integrating role of the medical technologies in the MANBRIC-convergence and implies practical recommendations regarding the most promising directions of the technological development in the nearest future.

The paper also contributes to the emerging theory of e-government through the introduction of the notion of e-state, which also suggests some practical recommendations regarding the regulation of this sphere.

1.4. To whom is this paper relevant?

Due to a rather pressing subject and research questions raised in this article, it could be relevant to a wide readership—including not only experts in technological forecasting and its social consequences, but also to many other experts. Futurologists may find a brain provoking comprehensive forecast of future development and its negative and positive aspects, whilst for economists it can be useful for the analyses of economic projections in light of technological change; as well as for demographers it might suggest a new approach for the analyses of global aging and its multiple consequences. Political scientists and politicians can find answers about political changes during Cybernetic Revolution, while sociologists and anthropologists can find answers about social changes generated by the technological development. Philosophers can also find a wide range of topics discussed in the article, including the issue of privacy and identity.



In the present study, we use a number of studies on COVID-19, especially of its impact on future changes in society (Schwab and Malleret 2020; see also above), as well as our own studies on the subject (L. Grinin 2020; Grinin, Korotayev 2020).



2.4. The cybernetic revolution, MANBRIC-convergence and self-regulating systems

We also rely on the theory of Production Principles and Production (technological) Revolutions (Grinin, L., Grinin, A., 2015; 2016, Korotayev 2017a; 2017b; 2020; Grinin, Korotayev 2015, Tausch 2016). We designate the technological revolution that began in the 1950s as the Cybernetic Revolution. We define three phases in the course of this revolution (see Fig. 2).

The first phase lasted until the mid-1990s and was associated with the rapid development of fundamentally new technologies, including computer information technology. The second phase began in the 1990s and is still in progress. The third phase, that is the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution, which, as we have earlier forecasted, will begin in the 2030s or 2040s (below we specify our forecasts, defining the 2030s as the exact starting period of the final phase largely because of the COVID 19 pandemic; see also Fig. 3).

This will be a new and powerful wave of innovation, which should accelerate the scientific and technological development (it is expected to continue till the 2070s). It will finally form the MANBRIC complex of technologies. We define this complex after the first letters of innovative technologies that are being actively implemented and will become the basis for the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (MANBRIC is Medicine, Additive, Nano, Bio, Robotics, Information and Cognitive technologies). In our opinion, the centerpiece of the MANBRIC complex, and its integral part, will be medical technology, which can unite around itself biotechnology (and, naturally, pharmacology), information and other technologies.



2.5. Methods

We combine various methods: historical, comparative, evolutionary, logical, theoretical, systemic (as well as principle of emergence), and some prognostic methods.22

2.6. Analysis and results

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a phenomenon that, for the first time in many decades or even centuries, placed health care problems at the center of both intrasocial and global relations. The pandemic has affected almost every area of life and activities. This led to noticeable changes in technologies and their diffusion, as well as in economy, politics, and the life of society. It has also spawned a number of projects that can significantly accelerate the development of certain technologies, as well as change socio-political relations. In general, the analysis of data in different areas over the recent years allowed us to point out the following important changes in connection with the pandemic.

A. The socio-political and economic role of medicine has sharply increased due to the large number of COVID infections. This significantly changed the government's attitude to health care services and its funding, including redistribution of the budget in favor of medical expenses (Abi Younes et al. 2020; Anderson et al., 2020), which led to an increase in its technological component (Abi Younes et al. 2020; Brem et al., 2020). In some cases, the redistribution of funds for R&D was carried out in favor of a number of medical and biotechnological industries at the expense of other scientific and technical areas (e.g., Abi Younes et al. 2020; Basu et al., 2020); which is also in line with the latest WHO guidelines (see, e.g., WHO 2020). Thus, the needs created by the health care crisis have dramatically accelerated the adoption of a wide range of technologies, and many companies have moved quickly in this direction (Schwab, Malleret 2020).

B. The role of red (bio-pharmaceutical) biotechnology as a decisive factor in returning society to normal life has grown. The development of vaccines gave impetus for innovative breakthroughs in red biotechnology and genetic engineering (e.g. Abi Younes et al. 2020). Funding and application of these biotechnologies, especially vaccines, have dramatically increased (Chung et al., 2020; Zimmer et al., 2020). It is of the utmost importance that already by the end of 2020 several vaccines from different countries and producers became available, but it is worth noting that more than a hundred different vaccines are currently being developed by dozens of companies in the world (Corey et al., 2020; Jeyanathan et al., 2020).

C. The need for isolation and social distancing has led to a dramatic rise in online technologies. This led to an increase in the use of information technologies and their qualitative growth, including in the areas like remote / telemedicine health care services (e.g., Basu et al., 2020; Shah et al., 2020), or remote psychological assistance (Liu et al., 2020), the use and development of biometrics, including noncontact one (Kumari and Seeja 2021). Let us also mention the distance education (Rapanta et al., 2020), which has already been actively developing (Ashman et al., 2014), but has now become a necessity (Dhawan 2020). One can agree with the forecast of the significant impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the speed, implementation and direction of ICT (Abi Younes et al. 2020). The Internet commerce has also demonstrated explosive growth which has increased the demand for innovations in robotics, including drones (Estrada and Arturo 2020; Jat and Singh 2020; Skorup and Haaland 2020).

D. The struggle against the coronavirus has raised questions of a) deficit of medical personnel and prompt treatment of non-pandemic patients in order to concentrate forces on dealing with the pandemic. Robots in medicine, in particular robotic surgery (e.g., Kimmig et al., 2020) can appear useful in this case. The safety of doctors can also be achieved through the development of robotics (Kimmig et al., 2020; Palestino et al., 2020; Tang et al., 2021) and remote medical technology.

E. The pandemic has given impetus to the development of a number of other technologies – in particular, additive technologies (Choong et al., 2020; Javaid et al. 2020), which also have important medical applications (Choong et al., 2020). Nanotechnology has also been stimulated, since the need for new materials (including for the protection of doctors) impacts their development. Nanotechnology is especially urgent for the search for new principles for the development of vaccines and drugs. Since modern biotechnology works with nanoscales, the development of effective nanocarriers is extremely important for overcoming the limitations of traditional antiviral therapy (Chauhan et al., 2020). In the future, cognitive technologies can also be widely used in medicine and other areas.

Thus, the above described phenomena have increased the interdependence between medicine, biotechnology, information technology, additive technologies (Choong et al., 2020), as well as nanotechnology (Chauhan et al., 2020; Palestino et al., 2020; Tang et al., 2021; Weiss et al., 2020).

This also emphasizes the predominance of a number of areas of medicine, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, as a result of which they will be at the top of scientific and innovation programs (Abi Younes et al. 2020), which confirms our earlier conclusions about medicine and related technologies as a breakthrough point for a new technological wave.

Urgent solutions to health care problems are becoming a factor of global political and economic scale, without which the development of globalization will stall. Countries need to unite in the fight against the pandemics (Fisher and Wilder-Smith 2020). The measures taken in this direction actually bring closer the beginning of a new technological wave.

In addition, it is important to note that the transition to anti-crisis management of society and monitoring of the implementation of anti-epidemic regulations, including tracking of movements and contacts, has caused a surge in demand for artificial intelligence technologies, mainly for medical administrative purposes. This led to the introduction of techno-social innovations into society's life. We believe that these measures can accelerate the development of e-state technologies, change social relationships, as well as increase confrontation in society.

3. Discussion

As we have pointed above, the COVID-19 pandemic, by placing medical technology, organization of health care and medical control in society at the center of public attention, has stimulated change and acceleration not only in technological innovation, but also in social, administrative and even political relations.

All this represents in many respects a single complex of transformations that can be productively studied in a system (see Fig. 4).

3.1. How can the coronavirus affect the speed and channeling of advancement of the new technological wave?

Let us determine how the pandemic became the trigger. Why do we consider the pandemic as a phenomenon that will inevitably demand certain changes? The fact is that the COVID-19 pandemic has both undermined the idea of public safety and revealed the vulnerability of modern society to possible pandemics; also, it has not only posed additional threats to people's health and lives, especially to the elderly, but it began to depress the economy more than other economic crises and recessions (see Abi Younes et al. 2020; L. Grinin 2020; OECD 2020). In fact, the fight against the pandemic has set back the economy and social comforts, while at the same time pushed back, at least temporarily, globalization by suspending travel and tourism industry: flights, trade, etc.

Moreover, it has revealed the need for changes at the world-system level. Suddenly it became clear that the pandemic threatened the development of globalization on many fronts, while breaking this deadlock requires additional development of various technologies.

It is likely that the abovementioned problems will not be radically solved in the coming years. In addition, the outbreak of another pandemic caused by new pathogens is highly probable, and it is necessary to be ready for it.

In fact, there is a dilemma: come to terms with the destructive impact of the pandemic, expecting herd immunity, or develop various technological, social and socio-technical innovations that will help to cope not only with the current pandemic, but also with new ones. It is quite obvious that countries and the World System in general will choose the second option. Accordingly, as we have seen above (in the Analysis and Results section), such technological needs for innovations are relevant for those directions which form the MANBRIC complex (i.e., not only medical, but also bio-nano-robotic, AI, additive, cognitive technologies) (Chauhan et al., 2020; Choong et al., 2020; Kimmig et al., 2020; Palestino et al., 2020; Tang et al., 2021; Weiss et al., 2020). Both the pandemic and the need to overcome its negative impact, as well as the possibility of a new pandemic will powerfully stimulate a technological breakthrough and bring closer the beginning of the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution.

The competition between countries over vaccine development has intensified, which in fact is a positive development and will contribute to the development of medicine and biotechnology in general. The urgency of safety issues and the emergency situation have helped to remove some of the obstacles to the development of science and technology, especially to the approval of drugs and vaccines nationwide and around the world. The approval system for new drugs and vaccines is changing dramatically due to the COVID-19 crisis and it becomes significantly simplified and accelerated. In addition, a movement have begun toward the reorganization of some important areas of science (especially in pharmacology). In particular, Abi Abi Younes et al. (2020) write that the pandemic has shown the need for coordination and openness at all stages of the research and product development process. We agree that scientific openness can accelerate the development breakthrough in science and technology.

Previously, we assumed that one of the main factors that would allow medicine, as an integrating part of the MANBRIC convergence, to take center stage in both the technological wave and in solving social problems (including acute labor shortages, pension and social obligations pressure and others, see above) will be the inevitable accumulation of very large financial resources for the health and social welfare of pensioners. All these remain and will have their effect. However, because of the COVID-19 pandemic the problems of health care unexpectedly came to the center of public attention much earlier and appeared more acute (previously we had supposed that such a rise in the importance of medicine would only become evident only in the late 2020s). [Note - mmm no, your assumptions were for "around 2020" and in many places and exactly “2020":), do not be so modest;)] The pandemic has intensified the role of medicine as an integrating part of MANBRIC convergence.

3.2. Impact of COVID-19 on the development of socio-technical self-regulating systems and how this may affect social behavior and formation of the e-state

The development of technologies for tracking human activity leads to the commercialization (and actually alienation, according to the terminology of Karl Marx) of human behavior and privacy that were previously considered inalienable (desires, inclinations, habits, etc.). It has long been noticed that a new structure of power over people is emerging on the Internet. This state of affairs has serious implications for democracy (Schwartz 1999). Today's AI capabilities already entail systemic dangers to society and human rights (see Schwab, Malleret 2020). [note - lol]

[…]One should realize that information privacy is a value that helps shape the society in which we live and our individual identity (Schwartz, 1999). The urgent need to monitor compliance with security measures during the pandemic exacerbated this problem and at the same time showed that further development in this direction will lead to qualitative changes. The fact is that new combined technological systems are being formed on the basis of AI technologies that collect, store and analyze information about billions of people, as well as networked ICTs. Such systems are aimed at administrative, legal, social and even political regulation and control over the behavior of individuals, social groups and even society as a whole, up to the regulation of the World System. SSSs will be used to regulate many legal aspects, sometimes hierarchical relations in society, and may cause the formation and widespread use of social ratings (similar to the Social Credit System in China). In short, there is a tendency to delegate more and more tasks (Plebe and Perconti 2020) from the authorities to socio-technical systems. At present, such systems are actively implemented, for example in face recognition, location tracking systems, traffic control (e.g., Transparency Market Research 2020), imposition of fines, electronic registration, issuance of documents and many others that were previously the prerogative of the authorities.

Socio-technical self-regulating systems (SSSs) perform social and administrative functions (that is, control, verification, distribution, security, rating and other functions) using a set of technologies in the absence or little participation of officials and specialists. The development of SSSs is progressing rapidly. In some cases, they begin to be used in order to impose certain patterns of behavior on people. The most noticeable in this regard is China, where officials have developed the Social Credit System for individuals, businesses and government for their control and assessment for reliability, in particular, for example, for controlling non-urban residents (Kuznetsova and Mashkina 2020). Many projects of the Social Credit System have been implemented only as regional pilot programs, although there are plans to distribute them countrywide (Chin and Wong 2016; Creemers 2018), and which also serve as a model for other countries (Síthigh and Siems 2019). The year 2020 was in some ways a turning point in this regard. For example, the use of facial recognition systems (including recognition of masked faces (Sulochanan et al. 2021)) has increased by around 7% and may grow another 12% by 2022 (Technavio 2020). Famous vpn company reported the presence of location tracking systems already in 42 messenger apps with at least 187 million downloads (Sean 2021) and it rapidly increases during pandemic (Stanley and Granick 2020).

The pandemic and the emerging need to control anti-epidemic measures have dramatically accelerated the development of such SSSs. In particular, electronic pass systems, control of movements, system of punishment, accounting systems, systems of businesses control and many other systems emerged as a result of the lockdowns and they can be considered as prototypes of SSS (Lyon 2001; Ram and Gray 2020, 2020; Richards 2012; Wang et al., 2020). Various projects began to appear: electronic passports (COVID immunity passports) (Hasan et al., 2020; WHO 2020b), QR codes which are supposed to record all vaccinations (Barnes 2021), etc. Thus, the coronavirus pandemic has shown that the introduction of SSS can become a fast developing process which will unfold within 10–20 years. At the same time, the idea of creating immunity passports goes beyond the national level in cooperation with the largest IT companies (Leswing 2021). In the future, one may expect that the development of the socio-technical self-regulating systems will proceed in different directions while continuing to develop in the field of medicine. For example, there may emerge systems for continuous monitoring of health and critical parameters of not only patients in hospitals but also of people staying home (L. Grinin and A. Grinin 2016), including chronically ailing and elderly people.

The need to monitor compliance with COVID-19 restrictions led to the fact that such technologies began to be actively implemented by the authorities. However, their introduction not only improved the control, but has also brought up some problems, e.g. connected to the techno-social ranking of people (this issue [but with reference to commercial companies] has been discussed for a long time [see, for example, Lyon 2001]). Anyway, the positive aspects of SSSs are quite obvious, which is why they are spreading. SSSs in many different ways can significantly improve the social environment. Some evidence of this has emerged already during the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, in China [note - :)]several AI programs were used to treat mental health crises during the epidemic. For example, people at risk of suicide can be recognized using special artificial intelligence software by tracking and analyzing posts on Weibo and alerting certain volunteers to act accordingly (Liu et al., 2020).

However, such a rapid and uncontrolled implementation also carries serious risks. Obviously, there is a danger of increasing standardization of people and losing their individuality. One of the main problems is that over many decades people have become accustomed to freedom of behavior and this kind of regulations can cause and already are causing protests (Brennan 2020; Kowalewski 2020). As a result, SSSs can lead to the emergence of a considerable behavioral stratification in society, which will negatively affect its consolidation…

[…]And since very powerful forces and huge financial and political interests will concentrate around innovations related to medical control over population (and influence on them), these innovations can cause serious conflicts and affect all societies.

Nevertheless, most people are likely to agree with this form of regulation, although there is no doubt that such an attack on human rights (Gerstenfeld 2020) can not only cause a wave of protests, but also split society, cause strong behavioral stratification, social tensions and turbulence. However, there may appear a large number of outsiders, that is, a mass of people who fail to fit into the rather strict requirements of the SSSs and electronic state. Besides, deviant behavior will increase, such as rejection of such demands (e.g., Kowalewski 2020).

The processes of active implementation of SSSs and other information and digital technologies, as described above combined with the COVID-19 restrictions, have intensified the role of the state, which, to a certain degree, is beginning to turn into an electronic/digital state (or e-state).



the concept of e-state is something more advanced in this respect than e-government. We understand e-state as a state with a significantly reduced number of state supervisory bodies, mainly based on SSS technology. This can affect democratic procedures.

One of such major changes will be the transformation of public administration towards the increasing use of electronic automated forms of interaction and control. Speaking in the language of cybernetics, SSSs will create a new communicative circuit in the management of society, more precisely, it will change the contours of the relationship between the center and the periphery of society. In particular, it can increase opportunities for quick feedback from the public. The influence of the SSSs will be perceptible and will significantly change or even revolutionize the nature of governance. Major changes can be expected in the structure of the administrative apparatus. Some administrative units (for example, local governments, officials, special control bodies, etc.), which are important for the interaction between the central government and population, will disappear or will be transformed. As a result, the facilitated interaction between a citizen and a state will affect many officials and may deprive them of their jobs, that is, in many ways it will be a revolutionary transformation. On the one hand, this will significantly reduce the cost of the management process, thus the state will need much less funds for its maintenance. This is, of course, a positive process. But on the other hand, the power of the state will increase, and management will become less flexible, since it will largely depend on technology and the human factor of programmers. A historical analogy suggests itself. In the first half of the 19th century, workers had to adapt their physical, psychological and mental abilities to the needs of machine production. This led not only to the alienation of labor (according to Marx), but also to a large extent to the alienation of the personality of the worker (see Grinin L., Grinin A., 2015). Like the described process, the technological features of social control in the future can force people to adapt to them, causing alienation and frustration. This will also be strengthened by the fact that electronically organized authorities will look like an impersonal, unusual and, therefore, alien government.

(etc., etc.)

Acknowledgement

This research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project No. 20-61-46004)
.

~~

Let's introduce and Anton.


Last name: Grinin, Name: Anton L.

Anton L. Grinin, PhD in Biological Sciences, is Senior Research Fellow of the International Center for Education and Social and Humanitarian Studies as well as leading Research of Volgograd Centre for Social Research. His main research interests include Big History, evolution, biotechnologies, global technological transformations and forecasts. He is the co-author of the monograph From Biface to Nanorobots: The World on the Way to the Epoch of Self-Regulating Systems (2015; Uchitel Publishing House; in Russian) and a number of articles including ‘Macroevolution of Technology’ and ‘Global Technological Transformations’.

Antonin Grinin
Research Fellow, Moscow State University
(Antonin :):):))

~~

world economic forum, 07 Jan 2022:

Klaus Schwab Releases “The Great Narrative” As Sequel To “The Great Reset”

..“The Great Narrative” encapsulates the Davos Vision, and explores how we can shape a constructive, common narrative for the future. ..The book derives from a collaborative effort with some of the world’s leading thinkers, and describes how we can create a more resilient, inclusive and sustainable future.

“Going into 2022, we all look forward to a better future. Yet the challenges we are facing coming out of the pandemic are multi-fold and interconnected. The Great Narrative shows what the way forward could be, and what the role of cooperation, innovation, morality, public policies and business can be,” said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum.

The Great Narrative book relies to a substantial extent, but not exclusively, on interviews conducted with 50 of the world’s foremost global thinkers and opinion-makers who come from a broad spectrum of academic disciplines and from diverse geographies and backgrounds. ..”


2022.01.27
THE HEAD OF THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC FORUM INCLUDED LEONID E. GRININ AND ANTON L. GRININ INTO THE LIST OF 50 “FOREMOST GLOBAL THINKERS AND OPINION-MAKERS"

According to the World Economic Forum, Leonid E. Grinin and Anton L. Grinin are included in the list of 50 “foremost global thinkers and opinion-makers”. Their and other thinkers' interviews concerning the vision of the future world contributed to the new book "Great Narrative For a Better Future". The book is now widely discussed around the world, while the contributors received a personal gratitude from the chairman of the forum, who noted that the interviews became “a great inspiration to the book, making it intellectually rich and diverse”.


~~


~~~~
~~
~
What was accelerated through "covid"? How did this go on and on? What was the main thing in 2022 (and continues to be) and who were the main characters?

Where, apart from here, among the billions (in total for the whole world-a huge amount that keeps growing daily) of articles about great reset, can I read at least one article about Grinin and Grinin and their research? How about "nowhere"? Why is that?

Applause for alternative media researchers
 

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511
We have seen Grinnini's elaborate predictions of the coming cyber revolution, which, as shown in the last post, culminated in the monumental study of Grinnin, Grinnin, and Korotayev, in which they say that the (non-existent) "covid pandemic" greatly enhanced the cybernetic revolution, and which study is even deeper than Schwab and Malaret's continue on "Great reset"- "The Great Narrative for a better future", and probably for which Klaus, after "personal gratitude", include Leonid and Anton Grinin in the thanks of "Great narrative..." by he placing them on the list of the 50 "foremost global thinkers and opinion-makers". The study itself, as we saw in the latest publication of the mini-series, "has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project No. 20-61-46004)."


Let's see the project description from the foundation's website.
~~
About the Foundation

Russian Science Foundation was established on the initiative of the President of the Russian Federation to support basic research and development of leading research teams in different fields of science. Legal status, powers, functions, proprietary rights and governance of the Foundation are determined by the Federal Law "On the Russian Science Foundation and Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation."

To achieve its goals, the Foundation selects science and technology programs and projects that fall under certain propriety categories, and does so on a competitive basis. Among these priorities are basic research initiatives by research groups or individual scientists, or members of the higher education teaching staff; development of scientific organizations and institutions of higher education, creation of world-class departments and laboratories in scientific organizations and educational institutions, development of experimental facilities for scientific research.

...

Special Status / The Russian Science Foundation was founded by the decree of the President of the Russian Federation in November 2013, and its activities are regulated by a special federal law. The RSF is not a budgetary organisation. The Supervisory board chaired by the Aide to the President Andrey Fursenko consists of 20 members represented by leading scientists, academicians of the Russian Academy of Science, representatives of legislative and executive bodies.

...

The core activity of the RSF is funding basic and exploratory (problem-oriented) research through a variety of programmes. The funding for programs and projects is based on a rigorous competitive selection process. The RSF research grant program provides sufficient financial support ranging to 32 million rubles, which creates a comfortable environment for scientists and allows to conduct research without seeking supplementary funds.

...

The funding decisions are made by the independent and credible expert councils consisting of the leading scientists. RSF sets high standards for the merit of the project leaders willing to apply for grants. The chief merit is a researcher's academic reputation supported by the publications in peer-reviewed journals with high scientific impact.

...

The recipients of RSF grants enjoy a stable long-term prospective for their research with all necessary financial support provided for their significant research contribution to the global science, to the Russian economy and society.

[etc.]

PROJECT CARD,

SUPPORTED BY THE RUSSIAN SCIENCE FOUNDATION

general information

Number: 20-61-46004

Name: World development and "limits of growth" in the 21st century: modeling and forecast

Supervisor: Viktor Antonovich Sadovnichy, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences

Financing organization, region: Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education "Lomonosov Moscow State University", Moscow

Years of implementation with the support of the RNF: 2020 - 2022

Contest: 2020 Contest "Conducting fundamental scientific research and exploratory scientific research on behalf (instructions) of the President of the Russian Federation" (leading scientists)

Field of knowledge, the main code of the classifier: 01 - Mathematics, computer science and systems sciences, 01-211 - Mathematical modeling of social and economic processes

Keywords: Mathematical modeling, forecast, limits of growth, globalization, energy and environmental problems, socio-economic development

GRNTI Code: 23.00.00

Status: Successfully completed

INFORMATION FROM THE APPLICATION

Annotation

Until recently, human civilization has developed along the path of mainly extensive development. In the second half of the twentieth century, the situation began to change dramatically. Thanks to the activities of the Club of Rome, the UN, and other organizations, it became clear that extensive economic development and consumer attitude to nature will inevitably lead to an environmental catastrophe, that scientific knowledge should be directed not only to improving the material aspects of human life, but also to ensuring the sustainability of socio-natural processes.

Traditional forecasting methods have lost their effectiveness in the face of rapid technological changes and the sharp aggravation of many global problems. A qualitative breakthrough is needed in the development of quantitative methods of modeling and forecasting global processes (ecological, climatic, demographic, socio-economic, political), in the interests of timely identification of development constraints, possible crises and justification of ways to overcome them.

The project aims to:

- to improve existing and develop new methods of mathematical modeling and forecasting of global ecological, climatic, demographic, socio-economic, political processes;

- to create a comprehensive system of global modeling based on modern mathematical methods and models;

- on the basis of a set of developed mathematical models to make a forecast of world development in technological, ecological, climatic, demographic, socio-economic, political spheres, to identify the limitations of this development ("limits of growth");

- on the basis of modeling, to develop a system for assessing the sustainability of global processes and emerging risks of global development in various fields, to determine the tasks that humanity will have to solve in the coming decades;

- to develop a methodological apparatus (mathematical models, methods) for information and analytical systems of strategic planning in the Russian Federation in the interests of ensuring the safe and sustainable development of the country;

- Prepare a report to the Club of Rome outlining the Russian vision of achieving the sustainability of global development and overcoming the "limits of growth".

The scientific novelty of the project lies in the fact that it implements an interdisciplinary approach to forecasting world development based on joint and interrelated analysis and mathematical modeling of demographic, environmental, socio-economic, political processes in the context of the upcoming large-scale socio-natural and technological changes. Based on this approach and mathematical modeling, the general concept of the boundaries and limits of human evolution, including natural and social limitations, as well as ways and directions of overcoming them for further safe and sustainable development will be substantiated.

The aim of the project is to create a system of mathematical models based on the synthesis of natural sciences and humanities for modeling and forecasting global processes and "limits of growth" in the interests of strategic planning and ensuring sustainable socio–natural and social development.

Expected results

The main expected results are:

1. Analysis of the possibilities and limitations of modern methods of modeling and forecasting global processes and research of problems of world development, justification of ways to improve these methods.

2. Methodology, methods and mathematical models of complex modeling and forecasting of global ecological, climatic, demographic, socio-economic, political processes in their interrelation and interdependence in the interests of forecasting world dynamics in the context of globalization.

3. Mathematical models for describing global and regional crises as situations of loss of stability of basic (socio-economic, environmental, demographic, political, cultural) processes in the context of expected technological changes, in the interests of determining the conditions for sustainable development.

4. Forecast of world development in demographic, ecological and climatic, socio-economic, political spheres. Identification of the limitations of this development ("limits of growth") and possible crises.

5. Analysis (using the developed models) of possible scenarios of world development, limits of growth and conditions of sustainable development.

6. Methodological apparatus (mathematical models, methods) for information and analytical systems of strategic planning in the Russian Federation in the interests of ensuring sustainable development of the Russian Federation in the XXI century.

The scientific and social significance of the results lies in the fact that the developed mathematical models will make it possible to make a scientifically based forecast of global socio-economic, ecological-climatic, demographic, political processes, which can be used in the process of strategic planning and management in the Russian Federation. …”

**to be continue...
 

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511
PROJECT CARD /
...
“Summary of the results obtained in 2020

The main works carried out on the project in 2020 and the results obtained are the following:

A) The analysis of modern works and existing methods of modeling and forecasting of global processes is carried out. It is shown that despite the wide variety of methods and models, they are usually focused on the consideration of one sphere of human activity, on their basis it is difficult to imagine the full picture of the changes taking place in the world, taking into account the mutual influence of some spheres on others. At the same time, as a rule, modeling of global processes has a purely economic-centric character. In addition, the impact of rapid technological changes on all spheres of life is not sufficiently taken into account. The tasks to eliminate these shortcomings are formulated.

B) Improved methodology and methods of analysis, modeling and forecasting of global processes:

a) a methodology has been developed for analyzing long-term trends in global dynamics based on the analysis of large volumes of statistical data for long periods of time (the last 80 years);

[the text follows more descriptions of the methods of analysis; I cut it short, otherwise it becomes too much..]



C) A number of private mathematical models and techniques have been developed, which will be included as integral elements in the system of modeling and forecasting of world dynamics being created, in particular:

- a model for predicting global energy consumption in the 21st century and the associated combustion of hydrocarbon fuels (coal, oil and gas), which is accompanied by carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere;

- a model for assessing the impact of global energy consumption on the change in the average temperature of the atmosphere at the Earth's surface;

...

E) The mechanism of development of socio-ecological crises in various types of landscapes and natural zones as a consequence of the influence of anthropogenic pressure on the environment is described. Special attention is paid to mountain landscapes and degradation of ecosystems and soils both in rural areas and in urbanized regions. The possibilities of reducing anthropogenic pressure on nature and reducing the severity of socio-ecological crises by switching to resource-saving technologies are considered.

(again in several parts, because it is long, and I just do not know what is for shortening, everything is unique, and I am afraid to shorten what is written by professors:); let it at least be shown somewhere)

F) A forecast of climate change in the XXI century has been made. It is shown that the energy transition from the use of currently dominant fossil hydrocarbons to the predominant use of renewable energy sources (RES), when the share of RES in the total energy balance exceeds 40%, may take place in the 2060s. At the same time, the share of nuclear energy in the total energy balance should increase from the current 4.9% to 13.5%. It is shown that without the dynamic development of nuclear power as a low-carbon source of generation of basic and peak electricity necessary to create a stable and stable energy system, this energy transition is impossible. It is shown that in order to keep global warming at 1.5 °C by the end of this century, a wider use of chemical technology for capturing, binding and burying carbon dioxide will be required both in the process of burning hydrocarbons in power plants and directly from the atmosphere, but this is still hindered by the high cost of technology.

G) The forecast of technology development in the XXI century is made. It is shown that: a) medicine, additive technologies (3-D printers), nano- and biotechnologies, robotics, information and cognitive technologies may become the likely leading technological directions of the near future. This complex is designated as MANBRIC technologies, while medicine will become an integral technology in it; b) based on the processing of empirical data, the general dynamics of the acceleration of technological growth over the past forty thousand years has been established, which can be described with high accuracy (R2 = 0.99) using a simple hyperbolic equation: y(t) = C/(T – t), where y(t) is the rate of technological growth of the measured among the technological phase transitions per unit of time at constants T and C, where T can be interpreted as a point of technological singularity; c) a strong correlation has been established between the processes of scientific and technological progress and global aging. At the same time, until the end of the cybernetic revolution (that is, until about the 2070s-2080s), this correlation is positive, that is, global aging will be the driver of accelerating technology development, and then the correlation becomes negative: global aging will begin to act as a brake on scientific and technological development and slow it down.

...

The results of the first year of the project are published in 6 articles in publications indexed in the Web of Science Core Collection or Scopus databases, and in 12 articles in publications considered by the RSCI, the full number of publications with reference to the grant is 21.



Publications

1. Akaev A.A., Davydova O.I. The Paris Climate Agreement comes into force. Will the Great Energy Transition take place? Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences, volume 90, No. 10, pp. 926-938 (year of publication - 2020).

2. Akaev A.A., Davydova O.I. The Paris Agreement on Climate Is Coming into Force: Will the Great Energy Transition Take Place? Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vol. 90, No. 5, pp. 588-599 (year of publication - 2020).

3. Akaev A.A., Malkov S.Yu. Modeling and forecasting of energy-ecological dynamics. Part 1 Partnership of Civilizations, No. 1-2, pp.179-191 (year of publication - 2020).

4. Akaev A.A., Malkov S.Yu. Modeling and forecasting of energy-ecological dynamics. Part 2 Partnership of Civilizations, No.3-4, pp.150-165 (year of publication - 2020).

5. Akaev A.A., Sadovnichy V.A. Forecasting a cyclical recession in the US economy using a mathematical model of the theory of financial instability by Hyman Minsky Reports of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Mathematics, Computer Science, Management Processes, volume 494, pp.77-82 (year of publication - 2020).

6. Bogomolova I.P., Krivenko E.I., Popov V.N. The role and features of resource-saving processes in modern conditions of national economy management and implementation of state strategic initiatives Economics and Management: problems, Solutions, No. 11, volume 2, pp.4-15 (year of publication - 2020).

7. Grinin A.L., Grinin L.E. Problems of instability of the future of mankind in the report of the Club of Rome System monitoring of global and regional risks, pp.126–145 (year of publication - 2020).

8. Grinin A.L. Analyzing the global problems of the XXI century. Review and forecast based on the report of the Rome Club "Come on!" Century of Globalization, No. 2, pp.48-64 (year of publication – 2020).

9. Grinin A.L. Grinin L.E. Looking into the Future. Criticism of the report of the Club of Rome "Come On!" Evolution, pp. 480-511 (year of publication - 2020).

10. Grinin A.L., Grinin L.E. Crossing The Threshold Of Cyborgization Journal of Big History, - (year of publication - 2020).

11. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L., Korotaev A.V. Evolution of the dynamics of technological growth rates in the historical process and singularity Evolution, pp.170-234 (year of publication - 2020).

12. Ivanov D.V., Andreev A.I. Digitalization: limits of growth in the 21st century Economics and management: problems, solutions, - (year of publication - 2020).

13. Ilyin I.V., Isaev L.M., Malkov S.Yu. A Methodology for Analyzing and Forecasting Sociopolitic Destruction BioSystems, v.198, p.1-8 (year of publication - 2020).

14. Kovaleva N.O., Stolpnikova E.M. Volcanic Soil Series of the Lesser Caucasus as an Archive of Early Pleistocene Paleoecological Information Paleontological Journal, Vol. 54, No. 8, pp. 64-73 (year of publication - 2020).

15. Korotaev A.V., Bilyuga S.E., Shishkina A.R. Which Countries Generate Kondratieff Waves in Global GDP Growth Rate Dynamics in the Contemporary World? Journal of Globalization Studies, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 33-63 (year of publication - 2020).

16. Malkov S.Yu. The future of Z-society Information Wars, No. 4(56), pp.2-12 (year of publication - 2020).

17. Malkov S.Yu. On singularity in biological and social evolution Evolution. Yearbook, pp.276 -297 (year of publication - 2020).

18. Malkov S.Yu. On the peculiarities of modern interstate confrontation, History and Modernity, No. 2(36), pp.3-28 (year of publication - 2020).

19. Malkov S.Yu., Musieva D.M., Bilyuga S.E. Cross-country analysis of the quality of life based on the “LIFE QUALITY INDEX” Information Wars, No. 1(53), pp.61-69 (year of publication - 2020).

20. Akaev A.A. On the new paradigm of energy-ecological development in the XXI century. From RIO (1992) to Paris (2015): achievements, problems and prospects in the fight against climate change Moscow edition of the publishing house "Teacher", Moscow, 56 p. (year of publication - 2020).

21. Kovaleva N.O., Stolpnikova E.M. Mountain soils as an archive of paleoecological information of the Pleistocene Actual problems of paleogeography of the Pleistocene and Holocene: Materials of the All-Russian conference with international participation "Markov Readings 2020", pp.171-175 (year of publication - 2020).

22. - What are the roles of a person and an intelligent machine in the era of the digital economy? Mathematical modeling Website of Lomonosov Moscow State University, project "Dialogue about the present and the future", - (year of publication - ).

23. - The Congress "Globalistics 2020": problems and the future of humanity are discussed at 35 sites of Russia24, - (year of publication - ).

24. - "New limits of growth" - A project of MSU scientists led by Academician V.A. Sadovnichy YouTube, - (year of publication - ).

25. - During the lecture, it was told about digitalization as a global sociotechnological process covering all spheres of life, about its features, problems and prospects in Russia, about staffing the digital transformation of the country's economy All-Russian Science Festival, - (year of publication - ). …”

**

Abstract of the results obtained in 2021

In order to create a system of mathematical models based on the synthesis of natural sciences and humanities for modeling and forecasting global processes and "limits of growth" (in the interests of strategic planning and ensuring sustainable socio-natural and social development), the following results were obtained during the implementation of the project in 2021.

A) The following mathematical models have been developed:

- a mathematical model that allows predicting technological progress by the rate of production of endogenous technological information in the economy;

- a mathematical model reflecting the relationship between demographic growth, energy consumption growth, industrial CO2 emissions and temperature changes in the surface layer of the atmosphere, designed to assess the effectiveness of various strategies for implementing the global energy transition to low-carbon energy;

- a mathematical model of modernization describing demographic and economic dynamics in individual countries in the process of transition from an agrarian society to an industrial one and further to a post-industrial one, designed to forecast demographic and economic development of the countries of the world;

- a mathematical model of interaction between the Center and the Periphery of the World system, describing the relationship of demographic, economic, technological, socio-political characteristics in the course of this interaction and designed to analyze the patterns of historical evolution of the world system;

- a mathematical model describing the features of the interaction of the main social groups with each other and the impact of these interactions on the stability of the functioning of society. The model is designed to analyze the conditions under which the stability of society is ensured, and the conditions under which its destabilization occurs;

- a mathematical model describing competitive relations in a market economy, designed to analyze the conditions necessary to ensure economic stability;

- a mathematical model designed to analyze the socio-political stability of social systems and to identify conditions for socio-political stabilization/destabilization of society.

Based on the models mentioned above and developed at the first stage of this project, a basic system of equations has been formed for modeling interactions in the society –nature system, as well as within society in the thematic blocks "Demography", "Economics", "Technology", "Nature", "Ecology", "Sociosphere", "Politics". This system of equations is intended for the analysis and modeling of global processes (demographic, ecological, climatic, socio-economic, political) in the past historical epochs, as well as for forecasting the course of these processes in the future.

B) Using the specified set of models describing basic demographic, ecological and climatic, socio-economic, political processes, studies were conducted to identify key patterns of human society development in past historical epochs, as well as scenario calculations were carried out to analyze possible scenarios of world dynamics in the 21st century. The features and conditions of the implementation of these scenarios are considered. The inevitability of qualitative changes in key demographic, economic, technological, socio-political indicators is shown. In essence, we are talking about the transformation of the world system into a fundamentally new state, about its transition to a new stage of historical development. At the same time, the range of possible transition scenarios is quite wide, but the main risks will be in the sphere of socio-political development.

C) Proposals have been developed for the formation of an information and analytical decision support system in the field of strategic planning based on the use of modeling and forecasting methods of global and regional socio-economic, environmental, demographic, and political processes affecting the development of Russia. Proposals have been developed on the composition of mathematical models and techniques designed to predict the long-term consequences of decisions taken at the federal level in the socio-economic sphere. The models and methods are based on the use of the methodological apparatus developed within the framework of the project and serve to optimize the decisions made in the field of strategic planning.

Publications

1. Akaev A.A., Davydova O.I. A Mathematical Description of Selected Energy Transition Scenarios in the 21st Century, Intended to Realize the Main Goals of the Paris Climate Agreement Energies, 14, No. 9:2558 (year of publication - 2021).

2. Akaev A.A., Sadovnichy V.A. The Human Component as a Determining Factor of Labor Productivity in the Digital Economy Studies on Russian Economic Development, Vol. 32, No. 1, pp. 29-36 (year of publication - 2021).

3. Akaev A.A., Sadovnichy V.A. Information Models for Forecasting Nonlinear Economic Dynamics in the Digital Era Applied Mathematics, Vol. 12, No.3, pp. 171-208 (year of publication - 2021).

4. Andreev A.I., Varenik M.S., Ivanov D.V. Global development and problems of youth policy in Russia Economics and management: problems, solutions, - (year of publication - 2021).

5. Bilyuga S.E., Malkov S.Yu. Index of dynamics of socio-political instability Information wars, No. 4(60), pp.25-31 (year of publication - 2021).

6. Grinin A.L., Grinin L.E. Analyzing the Global Problems of the Twenty-First Century. A Review and Forecast Based on the Report to the Club of Rome ‘Come On!’ Journal of Globalization Studies, Vol. 12 No. 2 P. 166-179 (year of publication - 2021).

7. Grinin E.L., Grinin A.L. How Can Covid-19 Change Geopolitics and Economy Globalistics and Globalization Studies, pp. 43-55 (year of publication - 2021).

8. Grinin L. E., Grinin A. L. Globalism against Americanism. Part one. How globalists deplete the resources of the United States to build a New Global Order, History and Modernity, No. 2. pp. 3-43 (year of publication - 2021).

9. Grinin L. E., Grinin A. L. Globalism against Americanism. Part two. Globalism and the Future of the USA and the World History and Modernity, No. 3(37). pp. 3-53 (year of publication - 2021).

10. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. Technological Dimension of Big History and the Cybernetic Revolution. Globalistics and Globalization Globalistics and Globalization Studies, pp. 272-293 (year of publication - 2021).

11. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. Crossing the Threshold of Cyborgization Globalistics and Globalization Studies, Pp.337-350 (year of publication - 2021).

12. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. The Technological Activity and Competition in the Middle Ages and Modern History Kondratieff Waves. Historical and Theoretical Aspects. Yearbook, Pp. 157-181 (year of publication - 2021).

13. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. Are we going to the globalist revolution? (how globalists are trying to change the world) Article one. Globalism in the "Revolutionary" aspect of the Age of Globalization, No. 4. pp. 3-26 (year of publication - 2021).

14. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. The Dynamics of Kondratieff Waves in the Light of the Theory of Production Revolutions Kondratieff Waves. Historical and Theoretical Aspects. Yearbook, Pp. 59-113 (year of publication - 2021).

15. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L., Korotaev A.V. On Some Aspects of the History of Long-Wave Dynamics Research Kondratieff Waves. Historical and Theoretical Aspects. Yearbook, pp. 124-156 (year of publication - 2021).

16. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L., Korotaev A.V. COVID-19 Pandemic as a Trigger for the Acceleration of the Cybernetic Revolution, Transition from e-Government to e-State, and Change in Social Relations Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 90, No. 5, pp. 588-599 (year of publication - 2021).

17. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L., Korotaev A.V. Global Trends and Forecasts of the 21st Century World Futures, 77:5, 335-370 (year of publication - 2021).

18. Korotaev A.V., Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. Mathematical Model of Interaction between Civilization Center and Tribal Periphery: A Description of Social Evolution & History, Vol. 20 No. 2, pp.50-78 (year of publication - 2021).

19. Malkov S.Yu. On Russia's strategy in the foreign economic sphere in the conditions of modern "hybrid" war, Information Wars, No. 2(58), pp.39-45 (year of publication - 2021).

20. Malkov S.Y. Reflections on the topic: does capitalism have a future? Information Wars, No. 4(60), pp.41-49 (year of publication - 2021).

21. Malkov S.Yu., Bilyuga S.E., Musieva D.M. Quality of life in the BRICS countries based on the LQI index Information Wars, No. 3(59), pp.13-25 (year of publication - 2021).

22. Malkov S.Yu., Davydova O.I. Modernization as a global process: the experience of mathematical modeling Computer research and modeling, Volume 13, No. 4, pp.859-873 (year of publication - 2021).

23. Malkov S.Yu., Kovalev V.I., Korotaev A.V. On mathematical modeling of the stability of the functioning of socio-economic systems Information wars, No. 1(57), pp.31-43 (year of publication - 2021).

24. Popov V.N., Bogomolova I.P., Urazova O.A. Development of domestic feed production in conditions of potential risks and uncertainty factors Economics and management: problems, solutions, - (year of publication - 2021).

25. - Modeling and forecasting of global processes: limits of growth in the XXI century Official Press Service of Moscow State University, - (year of publication - ).

26. - Global Social Transformations and the Limits to Growth in the 21st century Official website of the World Academy of Art and Science, - (year of publication - ).

…”
 
Last edited:

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511

*Photo from the article "Viktor Sadovnichy:" we will try to save everything!" on the scientific portal "Scientific Russia", 26.03.2020

***
PROJECT CARD
“…

Abstract of the results obtained in 2022

In 2022, the following scientific results were obtained within the framework of the project "World Development and the Limits of growth in the 21st century: modeling and forecasting".

1. The following mathematical models have been developed:

- a mathematical model reflecting the patterns of the dynamics of technological progress throughout human history. The revealed patterns were used in the formation of a system of equations describing macro-historical dynamics;

- a mathematical model for predicting demographic dynamics in the era of widespread use of intelligent machines. The model is constructed using the demographic model of S.P.Kapitsa and the formula for the production of useful information in human society, based on the assumption of S. Kuznets about technological progress. The model makes it possible to carry out scenario forecast estimates of the dynamics of the Earth's population on the time horizon until the end of the 21st century;

- a mathematical model that allows predicting the average global temperature of the surface atmosphere for various demographic scenarios, taking into account the necessary fuel and energy balance. The model made it possible to select optimal scenarios for the energy transition (from the use of currently dominant fossil fuels to renewable energy sources) that meet the requirements of the UN Paris Climate Agreement, and formulate conditions for the implementation of these scenarios;

- a basic mathematical model of interaction between the civilizational core of the World-System and the World-System periphery, which is at a lower stage of technological development. The model is designed to analyze the possibility of the emergence of equilibrium states in this interaction and the logic of further evolution;

- basic dynamic equations reflecting demographic and economic dynamics in relation to different historical epochs. Based on the modeling, conclusions are drawn about the patterns of world development in the historical periods under consideration. Various options for further demographic and economic dynamics are considered;

- a basic mathematical model for describing transitional historical epochs when there is an abnormally rapid change in key indicators of demographic and economic development. Examples of such epochs are: "axial time" (in the first millennium BC) and the industrial era (the last 200 years). It is shown that at the initial stage of such epochs there is a hyperbolic growth of the main demographic and economic characteristics, and at the final stage there is a sharp deceleration, accompanied by severe social instability and a serious transformation of social structures (which is just observed at the present time).

2. On the basis of these models, as well as models developed at the previous stages of this project, a comprehensive system of modeling world dynamics has been formed, taking into account the mutual influence of global demographic, natural-ecological, economic, social, political processes, basic dynamic equations reflecting these interactions have been proposed, the modification of these equations in relation to different historical epochs has been justified. The results of mathematical modeling have shown that humanity is currently moving to a fundamentally new phase of historical development, when the old economic and social technologies no longer work. There is a transition of human society into a new phase state, the shape of which has not yet been determined. In this situation, we are not talking about forecasting, but about designing the future in new historical conditions. The analysis of options for further world development is made. Based on the analysis and modeling results, a project of the future society with the conditional name "World-organism" is proposed, based on the primacy of the principles of cooperation over the principles of competition. If this project is implemented, as mathematical modeling shows, it is possible to solve global problems related to ecology, global warming, and energy. Based on the conducted research, an initiative report was prepared to the Rome Club, which was sent to the Club's management.

3. Methodological apparatus (mathematical models, methods) has been developed to support decision-making in the field of strategic planning and management, including:

- a system of indices designed to monitor, analyze and forecast the dynamics of important social and political processes in modern society has been proposed and tested;

- mathematical models and methods have been developed that allow quantitative assessments of the impact of state defense spending on changes in a number of important socio-economic indicators (the volume of the country's gross domestic product, the inflation index, the level of monetization of the economy, real incomes of the population, the level of human capital, etc.). A mathematical model is proposed designed to assess the optimal volumes of the state defense order based on the balance of the needs of ensuring military security and the dynamic economic development of the country. At the same time, the developed models can be used not only to assess the socio-economic consequences of state defense spending, but also spending on other national goals: healthcare, sports, education, etc.;

- using mathematical modeling, an analysis of the tasks that Russia faces in the short, medium and long term, and ways to solve them, is carried out. A number of measures are proposed in the short, medium and long-term periods aimed at countering existing threats and realizing the opportunities that open up.

The developed methodological apparatus can be used in information and analytical systems of strategic planning and management in the Russian Federation.

Publications

1. Akaev A.A., Davydova O.I. Mathematical Description of Energy Transition Scenarios Based on the Latest Technologies and Trends Energies, Vol. 14. – No. 24. – p. 8360 (year of publication - 2021).

2. Akaev A.A., Davydova O.I. Forecasting the Indicators of Kondratiev's Green Economic Wave (2018-2050), the “Great Energy Transition" and its Impact on the Socio-Economic Development of the World Global Challenges of Climate Change, Vol. 1. – Springer, Cham, 2022. – pp. 181-205 (year of publication - 2022).

3. Akaev A.A., Sadovnichy V.A. Mathematical model for forecasting global demographic dynamics in the era of the use of intelligent machines, Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences, volume 92, No. 9, pp. 877-884 (year of publication - 2022).

4. Andreev A.I., Grinin A.L., Ivanov D.V., Popov V.N. "Overcoming the Limits". The first results of an interdisciplinary scientific project IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 1096. – No. 1. – p. 012008 (year of publication - 2022).

5. Grinin A.L., Grinin L.E. Cyborgization: to Be or not to Be? Evolution: Trajectories of Social Evolution, pp. 187-202 (year of publication - 2022).

6. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. Are we going to the globalist revolution? (How globalists are trying to change the world.) Article two. The Globalist Revolution and its price for the World The Age of Globalization, No. 1. pp. 3-28 (year of publication - 2022).

7. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. The Dynamics of Kondratieff Waves in the Light of the Theory of Production Revolutions History & Mathematics: Historical and Technological Dynamics: Factors, Cycles, Trends, Pp. 201-255 (year of publication - 2022).

8. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. Demographic cross-section of the historical process. Article one. Demographic Transformations vs Industrial Revolutions Philosophy and Society, No. 3. pp. 5-39 (year of publication - 2022).

9. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. Reflections on economic growth and the future. Article two. Globalism, Neo-Socialism, Climate Rescue and Economic Growth Philosophy and Society, No. 3 (100). – pp. 5-34 (year of publication - 2021).

10. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L., Korotaev A.V. The Cybernetic Revolution, Kondratiev's Sixth Long Cycle and Global Aging AlterEconomics, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 147-165 (year of publication - 2022).

11. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L., Korotaev A.V. Technological Dynamics since 40,000 BP to the 22nd Century History & Mathematics: Historical and Technological Dynamics: Factors, Cycles, Trends, Pp.25-94 (year of publication - 2022).

12. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L., Korotaev A.V. 20th Century Revolutions: Characteristics, Types, and Waves Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Vol. 9. – No. 1. – pp. 1-13 (year of publication - 2022).

13. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L., Korotaev A.V. The Cybernetic Revolution and Singularity Evolution: Trajectories of Social Evolution, pp. 289-359 (year of publication - 2022).

14. Grinin L.E., Korotaev A.V., Malkov S.Yu. Developed and developing countries: towards a common goal at different speeds, Russian Journal of Economics and Law, Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 229-244 (year of publication - 2022).


15. Grinin L.E., Malkov S.Yu., Grinin A.L., Korotaev A.V. Will capitalism die? Reflections on Capitalism of the Past, Present and Future Sociological Journal, vol. 28, No. 2, pp. 100-130 (year of publication - 2022).

16. Korotaev A.V., Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. Mathematical Model of Interaction between Civilization Center and Tribal Periphery: An Analysis of Social Evolution & History, Vol. 21, No. 1, Pp. 65-97 (year of publication - 2022).

17. Korotaev A.V., Isaev L.M., Malkov S.Yu., Shishkina A.R. The Arab Spring. A Quantitative Analysis, Springer Nature Switzerland AG, Pp. 781-812 (year of publication - 2022).

18. Malkov S.Yu. The role and place of Russia in the era of global changes Information wars, No. 1 (61). pp. 2-7 (year of publication - 2022).

19. Malkov S.Yu. Russia in the conditions of the global crisis Eurasian integration: economics, law, politics, - (year of publication - 2022).

20. Malkov S.Yu., Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. The difficult path to a cybernetic society: socio-political transformations of Information Wars, No. 3, pp.50-58 (year of publication - 2022).

21. Malkov S.Yu., Korotaev A.V., Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. Modeling of global phase transitions History and modernity, - (year of publication - 2022).

22. Malkov S.Yu., Korotaev A.V., Davydova O.I. World dynamics as an object of modeling (to the fiftieth anniversary of the first report to the Rome Club) Computer research and modeling, - (year of publication - 2022).

23. Sadovnichy V.A., Akaev A.A., Zvyagintsev A.I., Sarygulov A.I. Mathematical modeling of overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic and restoring economic growth, Reports of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Mathematics, Computer Science, Management Processes, Vol. 505, pp. 24-29 (year of publication - 2022).


24. Sadovnichy V.A., Akaev A.A., Ilyin I.V., Korotaev A.V., Malkov S.Yu. Modeling and forecasting of world dynamics in the XXI century Bulletin of the Moscow University. Series 27: Globalistics and Geopolitics, No. 1, pp.5-35 (year of publication - 2022).

25. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. Waves and Lines of the Twentieth Century Springer Nature Switzerland AG, 2022, pp.315-388 (year of publication - 2022).

26. Malkov S.Yu., Starkov N.I., Davydova O.I. Socio-economic projections of defense expenditures: Development vs Security, LENAND LLC, Moscow, - (year of publication - 2022).

27. Shcherbakov A.V., Malkov S.Yu. Mobilization economy of Russia, Gryphon, Moscow, 88 (year of publication - 2022).

28. Sadovnichy V.A., Akaev A.A., Ilyin I.V., Korotaev A.V., Malkov S.Yu. "Modeling and forecasting of world dynamics in the XXI century". Preprint of the materials of the report to the Rome Club World of Civilizations: Historical trends and a look into the future: a collection of materials for the XXIV International Intellectual Literature Fair, 13-94 (year of publication - 2022).

29. - VGTRK report on the Conference of Mathematical Centers in Moscow State University told about the work of scientists of the MSU FGP, Website of the MSU FGP, - (year of publication - ).

30. - "RESPONDING TO CHALLENGES – OVERCOMING LIMITS." THE PRESENTATION OF THE PREPRINT OF THE REPORT TO THE ROME CLUB WAS HELD AT MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY. The information was taken from the portal "Scientific Russia" (https://scientificrussia.ru /) , - (year of publication - ).

31. - "We respond to challenges – overcoming limits." The presentation of the preprint of the report to the Rome Club was held at the Moscow State University - CIS Internet Portal, - (year of publication - ).

32. - World development and "limits of growth" in the XXI century: modeling and forecast Presentation of the preprint of the report to the Club of Rome "Overcoming limits" In the framework of the special seminar "Time, chaos and mathematical problems" Dialogue about the present and the future, - (year of publication - ).

33. - The report to the Club of Rome was presented at Moscow University without a format, - (year of publication - ).

The possibility of practical use of the results

The developed methodological apparatus can be used in information and analytical systems of strategic planning and management in the Russian Federation.”


*****

The MSU Wikisystem is a digital space of Moscow University organized by the staff of the Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics (VMK MSU) in the year of the faculty's 50th anniversary (2020).

Viktor Antonovich Sadovnichy (born April 3, 1939, Krasnopavlivka village, Kharkiv region, Ukrainian SSR) is a Soviet and Russian mathematician, a figure of Russian higher education. Rector of Lomonosov Moscow State University (since 1992). President of the Russian Union of Rectors (since 1994), Chairman of the Russian Council of School Olympiads. Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences (1997), Vice-President of the Russian Academy of Sciences (2008-2013). Laureate of the USSR State Prize (1989), the State Prize of the Russian Federation (2002) and three prizes of the Government of the Russian Federation (2006, 2011, 2012). Honorary Citizen of Moscow (2008). Member of the United Russia Party (since 2002), was a member of the Supreme Council of the party. Full Knight of the Order of Merit for the Fatherland

...

Honorary titles: [...] Member of the Club of Rome (2000)”

*****

Each of the last two rectors of Lomonosov Moscow State University was or is a full member of the Club of Rome.

~~~~
"VI International Scientific Congress "Globalistics-2020"
From May 18 to 22, the first stage of the VI International Scientific Congress "Globalistics 2020: Global Problems and the Future of Humanity" is being held in an online format. It is traditionally organized by the Lomonosov Moscow State University, and such influential international organizations as UNESCO and the Club of Rome are its partners. This year the Congress will be held in three stages — in May, June-August and October.

All participants of the global expert panel were greeted by the Rector of Moscow University, Academician V.A. Sadovnichy. ... ->
 
Last edited:

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511
Why is it that so often in different development strategies, different laws, occurs "until 2025"? What ends then? Or is it starting? Or does something End and another stage begin?

NEURONET
?


"Neuronet (English NeuroNet, NeuroWeb, Brainet) or Web 4.0 is one of the proposed stages of the development of the World Wide Web, in which the interaction of participants (people, animals, intelligent agents) will be carried out on the principles of neuro—communication. According to forecasts, it should replace Web 3.0 approximately in 2030-2040.

History
The ideas on which the concept of the Neural Network is based date back more than a decade. First of all, we are talking about the possibility of enhancing human intelligence by analogy with the increase in physical strength, voiced by William Ashby in "Introduction to Cybernetics" (1956), and then developed by Joseph Licklider in the article "Human-computer symbiosis" (1960)and Douglas Engelbart in the report "The Addition of human Intelligence: a conceptual framework" (1962) to the concept of the exocortex — an information processing system external to humans. In 1973, in the article "Towards a direct connection between the brain and the computer", Jacques J. Vidal first used the term neurocomputer interface, and in 1998 Phillip Kennedy and Roy Bakay from Emory University in Atlanta implanted the first such an interface to a patient named Johnny Ray.

Secondly, we are talking about the prospect of the emergence of a global brain, the idea of which goes back to the collection of short stories by H. G. Wells "The World Brain" (1936-1938). A little later, Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, developing the idea of Eduard Leroy about the noosphere, formulated in the "Phenomenon of Man" (1938-1940) the concept of the Omega point — the moment when the whole set of human consciousnesses will form into a higher consciousness. Valentin Turchin in the book "The Phenomenon of Science: A Cybernetic Approach to Evolution" (1973) introduced the concept of the quantum of evolution — a metasystem transition (Eng.) rus. As a result of one of these transitions, it will be possible to physically integrate individual nervous systems with the creation of potentially immortal human super-beings. The first scientific publication on the topic was an article by Gottfried Mayer-Kress and Kathleen Barczys "The global brain as a structure developing from a worldwide computer network, and the consequences of this conclusion for modeling" (1995). Since 2013, there have been experiments on the possibility of direct communication from brain to brain (Sam A. Deadwyler et al., Miguel Pais-Vieira et al., Carles Grau et al., Rajesh P. N. Rao et al.).

In 2011, the well—known creator of neurocomputer interfaces, Brazilian Miguel Nicolelis, in his book Beyond boundaries: the new neuroscience of connecting brains with machines - and how it will change our lives, proposed the word "Brainet" for the name of the future brain network. The term "neuronet" (English neuronet, neuro-net) was originally used to refer to artificial neural networks.

A new understanding of it as the name of the next generation of the global communication network after the Semantic Web began to take shape in Russia starting in 2012. In particular, in this sense, the Neural Network was mentioned in November of that year on polit.ru, and in March 2013 in an article of the Russian Reporter magazine devoted to the activities of participants in the Russia 2045 movement, with reference to the American futurist Raymond Kurzweil. Speaking at the TED conference in February 2005, Kurzweil predicted that by 2029 man would begin to merge with technology. And during a speech at the DEMO conference in Santa Clara (California) in October 2012, he talked about the future expansion of brain capabilities through cloud computing, that is, about the exocortex. In August 2013, the term Neuronet was voiced by Pavel Luksha, professor of the Moscow School of Management "Skolkovo" at the Foresight Fleet conducted by the Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI), as well as during presentations of the results of the foresight project "Education 2030".

On October 16, 2014 at the office of the Russian Venture Company (RVC), an expert seminar "The Neuronet Roadmap" was held with the participation of Stephen Dunn, director of Starlab Neuroscience Research; Karen Casey, creator of the Global Mind Project; Randal A. Kuhne, CEO of the Science Foundation Carboncopies.org and the founder of NeuraLink Co.; Mikhail Lebedev, Senior Researcher An employee at the Neuroengineering Center of the Department of Neurobiology at Duke University Medical Center (M. Nicolelis Laboratory); Evgeny Kuznetsov, Deputy General Director of RVC. The seminar was conducted by the co-founders of the Russian Neuronet Group Pavel Luksha and Timur Shchukin, as well as the head of the RVC Innovation Ecosystem Development Service Georgy Gogolev.

On behalf of the ASI [Agency for Strategic Initiatives], the group "Designers of Communities of Practice" prepared a report on future neural markets. On July 1, 2015, the first report on the National Technology Initiative (NTI), a long—term program that should ensure Russia's leadership in global technology markets by 2035, was presented to the President of Russia. The day before, in May of the same year, Neuronet was present among the 9 NTI markets discussed during the next "Foresight Fleet". ASI and RVC should conduct an examination of the NTI roadmap for the Neural network market and coordinate it with federal executive authorities by January 1, 2016
.


____________
Description
Background


Inefficiency of communications
The first prerequisite is the discrepancy between the high potential of the human brain and the state of those organs that are responsible for the information exchange of a person with the external environment. On the one hand, the brain is much more efficient than a computer: for a complete simulation of the brain, a supercomputer is needed that consumes approximately 12 GW, while the power consumption of the brain itself is only about 20 watts. On the other hand, the brain is used inefficiently, as evidenced by human communication errors (noises) caused by various reasons (physiological, psychological noises, semantic and socio-cultural barriers). An important barrier to perception is an undeveloped picture of the world, explained by a lack of experienced knowledge. According to Pavel Luksha, the quality of communications would increase if it were possible to transfer life experience from brain to brain directly (this proposal corresponds to TRIZ's idea of an ideal end result). The quality of decision-making would also increase if a special device amplified the signals of the brain's "error detector" when an emotional state prevents a person from catching them. Special mention should be made of communication errors caused by speech: in the philosophy of language, there was even a direction of linguistic skepticism (Hugo von Hofmannsthal), which denied language the ability to express.

One of the reasons for the demand for improving the efficiency of brain interaction with the external environment is the need to prevent and eliminate the consequences of diseases. Thus, mental stress on a person is growing, as a result, the level of losses of the European Union from depression exceeded 300 billion. euro per year. Europe spends another 600 billion euros annually on the treatment of diseases of the central nervous system. In Russia, over the period 2000-2012, the number of children aged 0 to 14 years with a newly diagnosed neurological disease increased by 33.5%. Therefore, the development of screening devices, including those based on neuroengineering, neuroprosthetics methods is inevitable. At the same time, it is possible that electronic implants will allow disabled people to overcome traditional boundaries of perception: for example, to acquire night vision. This advantage of neuroprostheses may be of interest to the military and sports medicine.

_________________________
Technology development
In attempts to create a computer whose device efficiency would be closer to the brain (neurocomputer), it is inevitable to perform work on mapping the brain (English) in Russian, which is already being implemented in a number of international projects. The appearance of such a map will allow creating artificial channels of direct interaction with the brain as a side effect.

The expected appearance of such a part of Web 3.0 as the Internet of Things should have no less consequences. It will lead to the emergence of communication between things united in sensory networks. Future communications will inevitably become anthropocentric, due to at least the well-known concept of organoprojection (German: Organprojektionsthese), that is, their goal will be to build a certain individual space around a person. Such a goal will force a person to hone interfaces and data transfer protocols that are convenient for communication with things, configured to identify human individuality. The very fact of the possibility of communication of things (the future state is called a reasonable environment resembles the revival of matter (see hylozoism), from which only a step remains to the complete fusion of man with nature by transferring consciousness to artificial media (see digital immortality). The developments of the Internet of Things will create a technical foundation for the transition to the Neural network.

Evolutionary challenges
A number of thinkers develop the idea that in the 1st half of the XXI century, humanity will be at the point of bifurcation. For example, the warning of the founder of the Budapest Club Erwin Laszlo on the upcoming macro shift: the hypertrophied ecological footprint and social inequality bring the world to the moment when either a social collapse will occur (see also the death of humanity), or the metasystem transition promised by Valentin Turchin. In fact, the concept of singularity also speaks about the global transition. A common place is also the criticism of the substitution of traditional values by the standards of consumer society, which incite base motives in a person. Finally, the concern of philosophers is the risk of an uprising of artificial intelligence. An interesting variation on the topic of this risk was voiced by Sergey Sergeev, Doctor of Psychological Sciences: The World Wide Web is a complex system, and such systems are self-organizing. How the self-organization of the Network will affect a person is still unknown.

According to David Dubrovsky, Doctor of Philosophy, overcoming the accumulating global problems is possible by continuing anthropogenesis in one of two ways: either by changing the biological nature of man (eugenics), or by striving to embody reason in a non-biological self-organizing system. The second way seems preferable to Dubrovsky. Transhumanists Alexander Laurent see this path in the creation of a neural community as a carrier of the global brain. Jules de Rosnay (fr.) rus. in the book "L'Homme symbiotique" (1995), he suggested that the formation of a superhuman planetary consciousness would be possible only if there was a direct connection between brain activity and high-speed computer networks.

______________
Main Features
Main article: Neurocommunications (https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Нейрокоммуникации)

According to the definition of the Brainet, which is adhered to by the team of the laboratory of M. Nicolelis, it is a network united using direct brain-brain interfaces, consisting of the brains of many animals capable of interacting and exchanging information in real time, thereby forming a new type of computer devices — an organic computer. This definition is close to the concept of "weak Neural network" proposed by Anatoly Levenchuk (by analogy with strong and weak artificial intelligence).

Mainly in Russia, a Neural network is understood not as a new kind of computer, but as a future communication environment that will unite human (and not only) minds, collectives and intellectual agents on the basis of neurotechnologies, allowing them to exchange thoughts, feelings and knowledge contained in the inner world of participants (including implicit ones). The network package will be based on the principle of direct informational influence on brain centers, bypassing the senses. To build such a network, it is necessary to solve the problems of understanding the brain, creating special interfaces and network protocols.


Understanding the Brain

Solving the problem of reading the brain is of paramount importance for creating a Neural Network. The philosophy of consciousness has known for centuries the problem of the relationship between the body and consciousness (English: mind–body problem). The meaning of the problem is that the phenomena of subjective reality cannot be attributed physical properties. At the current stage, scientists are not yet able to establish even a finite number of states of consciousness, while for their digitization it is necessary to set an interval of values even when using fuzzy sets.


I/O Devices
See also: en:Cyberware (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberware )

The importance of interfaces is due to the fact that it is the interface that acts as a direct partner in communication for interacting objects. Neurocommunication requires both output devices for recording brain activity and input devices for influencing the brain. The fundamental possibility of creating interfaces for the exchange of information along the line "brain-computer-brain" is due to the following theses: 1) about the material unity of nature at the level of nanoparticles (this is one of the foundations of the concept of NBIC convergence; 2) on the invariance of information — the same information can be embodied and transmitted by different carriers in their physical properties (this is a special case of the principle of isofunctionalism of systems).

In scientific experiments, electronic implants were used as the first neurocomputer interfaces. Non-invasive solutions based on electroencephalography (EEG) are less effective so far[59]. Perhaps in the future, the main form of the interface will be invisible smart dust; at least, according to Mark Weiser's ubicomp concept, the most profound and perfect technologies are those that "disappear" (which is similar to the definition of an ideal technical system in TRIZ)


Communication protocols
According to A. Levenchuk, data transmission should be carried out according to a special protocol, which he called "NeuroVeb" (English: NeuroWeb). The latter will act as an application layer protocol on top of the TCP/IP network protocol. Data on the state and activity of the brain will be transmitted over the network, which is still difficult to characterize more specifically]. It is probably advisable for the system to function in a single, universal language of meanings (see Semantic Web), with machine translation between this language and the language of each individual brain."

_______
it continues...
NEURONET (continuation)

Expected stages of development
Ideas about the stages in the development of the Neural network differ for obvious reasons. So, according to M. Lebedev, connecting the brain to global networks will be available to rich people by 2020, in another 5 years the Neural network will become a publicly available commodity, and by 2030 this topic will already lose scientific interest. From the point of view of Maxim Patrushev, Director of the Chemical and Biological Institute of the Baltic Federal University, the Neural Network will replace the Internet by 2035 at most. Raymond Kurzweil promises a hybridization of thinking after 2030. Hans Moravek expects the human brain to be connected to an artificial apparatus at the time of the technological singularity in 2045.

In Pavel Luksha's presentation at the expert seminar "Neuronet Roadmap" at RVC in October 2014, three stages were identified on the way to the Neuronet: 1) Biometrinet (pre-Neuronet) — from 2014 to 2024; 2) the origin of the Neural Network — from 2025 to 2035; 3) the emergence of a full—fledged Neural Network - after 2035. The stages of the formation of the Neural Network proposed in the report on neural markets developed for ASI are considered below.

First stage (2015-2020)
At the first stage, the sprouts of the future network appear unevenly. The human connectome is generally compiled, scientists are busy creating a universal connectome. Modeling of the brain as a whole has not yet been completed, but entire sections of it have already been modeled. The main trend of the first stage is the spread of wearable devices with biofeedback (biofeedback), household appliances are connected to the Internet of Things everywhere, augmented reality systems are being distributed. The bit depth of analog-to-digital converters is increased to 32 bits, which allows you to increase the dynamic range of interfaces. The problem of electricity transmission through the wearable computer network is being solved. Wearable devices accumulate arrays of big data, an independent niche of biometric BigData appears.

The first samples of artificial muscles are emerging, bioprostheses and exoskeletons are used to restore and enhance human abilities. Voiceless communication projects like Silent Talk have been completed. Bioelectronic (English) Russian medicine is beginning to crowd pharmaceuticals. Wearable devices are used in psychotherapy and group work. Business schools teach management of the simplest mental states (relaxation, concentration of attention).

Intelligent personal software agents are gradually spreading and improving. Neurotechnologies are entering the pet market because there are fewer legal restrictions on the introduction of new solutions. The experience of cooperative interaction (crowdsourcing, joint consumption) is gradually accumulating in the economy, and the software for collaboration is being improved.


Second stage (2020-2030)
There is a Neural Network prologue consisting of two directions. Firstly, it is a "biometric Web" as a network of devices that read the physiological parameters of a person. Brain mapping has already been completed, scientists have switched to modeling individual mental processes first, then to recreating mental states. Researchers are also interested in the evolution of the human brain and "neurogenome". High-temperature superconductors have dramatically reduced the cost of magnetoencephalography (MEG), neurointerfaces become inconspicuous, penetrate into the human body, and it becomes possible for them to interact with the unconscious. Augmented reality systems transmit not only images, but also sounds, smells, and tactile sensations. The cheapness of neural interfaces turns them into a generally accepted standard of human-computer interaction. There is a market for the sale of data on behavioral strategies, their suppliers are manufacturers of software for wearable devices.

Many body systems can be artificially duplicated: the immune system, peripheral nervous system, maintenance of blood composition, etc. The list of studied natural altered states of consciousness is being updated. There are automatic stimulators of states (at the same time, they support not only the functions of relaxation or increasing concentration), the exchange of emotions is used in group psychotherapy, accelerated learning systems have been created. Semantic translation (English) of Russian is implemented, the first precedents of the description of nervous semantics appear. The emergence of electronic biological standards for working with data and protocols adapted to subcellular processes is possible, the use of quantum cryptography is not excluded.

Secondly, we are talking about the "collaborative Web" — an organizational model that can involve a person with any competencies in an orderly, purposeful communication. Thanks to standardized APIs, various social networks are integrated into what can be described as a "Network of Networks". Traditional control systems no longer cope with processing the variety of signals generated by the Internet of Things. The methodology of soft systems and organizational flexibility are in vogue, the role of the computer as a mediator is growing in interaction support systems. Computer expert systems are used for risk management. The first experiments of the Neural Network are being conducted, the creation of neurocollectives is in demand in massively multiplayer online games.


The third stage (2030-2040)
At this stage, full-fledged foci of the Neuronet arise and gradually spread. Scientists accept the thesis about the sociality of consciousness, thinking and the psyche, as a result of which they move from modeling the brain to modeling collectives. Attempts are being made to assemble a model of hybrid intelligence. Sensors are approaching nanoscale, in addition to robots of ordinary size, collectives of quasi-living micro robots are emerging. Neurointerfaces based on MEG (magnetoencephalography) are as common as they are today[when?] mobile phones. Electronic devices are beginning to experience competition from optogenetic subcellular interfaces.

Many professional activities are carried out in altered states of consciousness, and artificial types of such states are constructed. The semantic web is supplemented by "biosemantics" (it means semantic analogues of the activity of biosystems). Protocols for the transmission of "raw" neural data are emerging, the first precedents of neural communities are emerging. The basis of such communities is the exocortex and people, collectives and intellectual agents united around it. In neurocollectives, it becomes possible to directly transfer experience through the attunement of people, the creation of artificial experience. The neural network helps in resolving individual and group conflicts.


The fourth stage (after 2040)
The neural network covers the entire field of communications.


________________________________
Infrastructure by country
USA

Back in 2001, the US National Science Foundation put forward the so-called NBIC initiative, one of the goals of which was stated to be human improvement. Subsequent projects were steps towards its implementation. In 2008, DARPA initiated the SyNAPSE (Systems of Neuromorphic Adaptive Plastic Scalable Electronics) program worth $106 million for 5 years, aimed at scaling neuromorphic technologies to the level of living beings. The program was attended by such computer giants as IBM (a division of IBM Research) and Microsoft. In 2010-2015, the Human Connectome Project was implemented with a budget of $100 million, whose task was to build a map of the connections of neurons in the human brain. In 2011, the National Institutes of Health funded 16 thousand grants in the field of neuroscience for a total of $ 5.55 billion.

In 2014, a biotechnology department was formed as part of DARPA, and a government BRAIN Initiative project was announced for the period 2014-2024, the costs of which will amount to $300 million annually. The goal of the latest project is to understand the human brain, to find new ways to treat and prevent neurodegenerative diseases (such as Alzheimer's disease, epilepsy and brain injury). The program provides for the participation of the private sector not only as performers (like Google X), but also in expenses. Thus, the following promises have been made by private foundations:

The Allen Institute for Brain Science will allocate $60 million annually to research brain activity leading to perception and decision-making;
Howard Hughes Medical Institute — $30 million dollars for the development of new visualization technologies and understanding how information is stored and processed in neural networks;
Salk Institute for Biological Studies — $28 million to develop a deep understanding of the brain from individual genes to neural networks and behavior;
Kavli Foundation — $4 million annually to expand knowledge in the field of treatment of disabling diseases and conditions.

Europe
European projects were a reaction to the American NBIC initiative. At the same time, Europe is interested in the prospects of gerontology in brain research, because by 2050 28% of the population aged 65 and older is expected on the Old Continent. The first project launched in 2005 was a joint project of the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne and IBM called the Blue Brain Project, dedicated to computer modeling of the human neocortex. Currently, a project is underway in the EU to coordinate between key participants in the research of human-computer interaction BNCI Horizon 2020, which replaced the FutureBNCI carried out in 2010-2011. Then, the European Union implements its own Human Brain Project worth 1.2 billion euros, which is part of the FET Flagships program. Its financing is provided by the eighth EU Framework Program for the Development of Scientific research and technology (2014-2020).

A consortium is working at the University of Twente (the Netherlands) to create an artificial analogue of the neuromuscular synapse for human-exoskeleton interaction. The Laboratory of Biorobotonics of the Free University of Berlin is engaged in biomimetics — scientists create robots based on "models" of snakes, earthworms, fish, program swarms of robots based on bee models.

Asia
In the East, the largest research projects are the 10-year Japanese Brain/MINDS Project and the 5-year Chinese Chinese Brain Project (implemented by Wuhan University, Hugo De Garis participated in it). Since 1999, more than 50 projects have been supported in China in the field of brain research and its dysfunctions, and in 2010 the concept of "Brainnetome" was formulated, covering 5 areas of study of brain neural networks: identification; dynamics and characteristics; functionality and dysfunction; genetic foundations; simulation and modeling. In 2011, the Research Plan for Neural Circuits of Emotion and Memory was launched, with a budget of 200 million yuan for 8 years. In 2012, the Chinese Academy of Sciences approved the strategic priority research program "Functional Connectome Project" worth 300 million yuan for 5 years (with the possibility of prolongation for 5-10 years). The purpose of the program is to compile a functional atlas of neural networks of the brain for perception, memory, emotions and the study of their disorders.

In March 2013, a joint Chinese-Australian project to create a new generation brain atlas "Brainnetome Atlas" was launched, it employs research teams from the Institute of Automation (Beijing) and Queensland Brain Institute (University of Queensland, Brisbane). Two years later, a technological initiative in the field of artificial intelligence called "China Brain" was proposed by the head of the Baidu search engine, Robin Li. He believes that this should be a state program of the same scale as the American Apollo. The initiative will focus on such areas as human-machine interaction, Big Data, autonomous transport, smart medical diagnostics, unmanned aerial vehicles, combat robots.


Russia
In 2009, Russia announced the creation of such an innovation management tool in the interaction of government, business and science as technology platforms. The first list of 27 technology platforms was approved by the decision of the Government Commission on High Technologies and Innovations in April 2011. Among the technological platforms was the "Medicine of the Future", within the framework of which a public analytical report "Neurotechnologies" was prepared. The conclusions of the report were that it is necessary to study the brain as a structure, organ and functional.

In January 2014, the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation approved the forecast of scientific and technological development prepared by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030. Among the promising areas of scientific research in the field of medicine and healthcare, the forecast included contact devices for the interaction of cells with artificial systems; integrated electronic control devices for monitoring the current state of the body, including in remote mode; visualization systems of the internal structure with ultra-high resolution. A month later, a list of 16 priority scientific tasks was formulated, including the task "Brain: cognitive functions, mechanisms of neurodegeneration, molecular targets for early diagnosis and treatment". Among the expected results of the task is the creation of brain—computer interfaces, methods of robot- and computer-mediated neurorehabilitation with directed brain stimulation, the development of an exoskeleton. The task is coordinated by Academician Mikhail Ugryumov, Head of the Laboratory of Nervous and Neuroendocrine Regulation at the Institute of Developmental Biology of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

As mentioned above, in 2015, the Neural Network was included among the key markets of the National Technology Initiative. The primary tool for the formation of STI is the implementation of foresights. Foresight methodology implies that the future is not predetermined and depends on our choice in the present. To influence the future, it is necessary to assemble the subjects of development. Thus, foresights are needed not so much to make a forecast, as to develop a common strategy of behavior by their participants, that is, to form a subject of development. It is assumed that the foresight should form an idea of what commercial products should appear based on new technologies. After that, there should be people interested in the prospect of creating such products. Finally, these persons should form a request for scientists on what technological barriers should be eliminated in order to create the necessary commercial products. Organizationally, future subjects of development are formed as working groups of NTI. The working Group on the Neural network market was headed by Andrey Ivashchenko, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the HimRar High Technology Center. There are also subgroups on neurointerfaces (headed by the head of the company "Neuromatics" Vladimir Statut), neurophysiology (already mentioned Maxim Patrushev), neurosemantics (first Vice-rector of the Moscow Institute of Technology Evgeny Pluzhnik).

Currently, research related to neurocommunications is carried out by the following research centers: Institute of Higher Nervous Activity and Neurophysiology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (G. A. Ivanitsky and A. A. Frolov), Institute of Biomedical Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, N. P. Bekhtereva Institute of the Human Brain of the Russian Academy of Sciences, I. M. Sechenov Institute of Evolutionary Physiology and Biochemistry of the Russian Academy of Sciences, NBICS-the Center of SIC "Kurchatov Institute", the Scientific Center of Neurology of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, the Research Institute of Molecular Biology and Biophysics of the SB RAMS, the Laboratory of Neurophysiology and Neurocomputer Interfaces of Moscow State University (A. Ya. Kaplan), the Research Institute of Neurocybernetics named after A. B. Kogan of the Southern Federal University (B. M. Vladimirsky and V. N. Kira), the laboratory of "Neurophysiology of Virtual Reality" of ITMO University (Yu. E. Shelepin), the laboratory of "Neuroimitating Information Systems and Neurodynamics" of the Nizhny Novgorod State University named after N. I. Lobachevsky, the Institute of Electronic Control Machines named after I. S. Brook. Separately, we should mention the ongoing projects of NeuroG, dedicated to the development of non-invasive devices for pattern recognition, and the reverse brain construction performed by the collective of the movement "Russia 2045" (V. L. Dunin-Barkovsky)
.

____
Risks
Technophobia is an integral part of modern culture, including cinema. Neurocommunication technologies have also not escaped criticism, which focuses on the following possible problems:

- neurohacking — hacking of neural networks with harm to the human body, the spread of specific viruses through the network;
- the threat of external control of people (including from artificial intelligence, as shown in the film "The Matrix"), violations of privacy;
- changing the human essence, turning people into biorobots;
- the stratification of humanity, the transformation of the elite into a new biological species of superhumans;
- objections of a religious nature.

The answer to critics is based on the idea that a person is not only what he is now, but also what he can be. For example, you can turn to the practice of group psychotherapy and especially to the works of Kurt Levin, who considered personality disorders as a result and manifestation of disturbed relationships with other people and the social environment. Levin believed that most effective changes occur in group interaction, and the Neural Network is just a communication medium in which perception barriers are removed. In particular, it cannot be ruled out that the formation of a Neural Network will lead to social changes that reduce the risks voiced."
 

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511
NEYRONET

"[...]A new understanding of it as the name of the next generation of the global communication network after the Semantic Web began to take shape in Russia starting in 2012 [19][20]

[19] - “Shchukin T. Neuronet: communication environment of the next generation // Technowars : journal. — 2014. — No. 5. — pp. 66-85. Archived on September 17, 2015.”

[Archive from the now defunct Technowars portal. (Now the link to "about" points to the currently existing portal "armament.rf" - "Catalogue of weapons and military equipment. The site is for reference only. Data collected from open sources.")]

Technowars, 03 May 2014

On the cover: top right - "Department of Military-Technical Cooperation"; Title: “The global network of the future NEURONET”; under it - “with the support of the military-industrial complex under the Government of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, the Foundation for Advanced Research”


The text on the image reads:

Neuronet: the next generation communication environment

The term "Neural network" ceased to be an unsuccessful Russian tracing paper [ paus; copied] from the term "Neural Network" about two years ago, when its new meaning was introduced into circulation, as a result of which it became the designation of the next generation after the semantic Internet of a global communication network with the possibility of direct mental, i.e. by means of brain-computer interfaces, connection.
...
[20] - Psychophysical and socio-psychological aspects of interaction in the "man-machine" system / Ed. A.V. Morov. — Izhevsk, 2014. — 120 p. — 200 copies. — ISBN 978-5-906306-04-3. Archived on November 23, 2016.

Psychophysical and socio-psychological aspects of interaction in the "man-machine" system / Ed. A.V. Morov. — Izhevsk, 2014. (pdf)

(from page 1)

Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, East-European Institute, Russian Foundation for Fundamental Research (project N 14-06-06830), Institute of Psychology of the MWEU

“Materials of the All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference of Young Scientists

June 9 - 10, year 2014, Izhevsk city

Psychophysical and socio-psychological aspects of interaction in the "man- machine" system

Published with the support of the Russian Foundation for Fundamental Research (grant No. 14-06-06830).

Responsible Editor – A.V. Morov, Candidate of Pedagogical and Philological Sciences, Vice-Rector for Science and Innovation of the East European Institute of Higher Education”

The presented materials are aimed at sharing advanced research experience and improving the efficiency of using natural science research tools in the study of various aspects of human-machine interaction.”

[In general, they present in various materials the unchanging future of humans and machines in general - life in a world dominated by advanced technologies such as today's (“innocent). Between them, on P. 73: "T. N. Shchukin-technology and man - the future of humanity", 10-page report on human-computer interfaces, and the like.]

***
“… In particular, in this sense, Neuronet was mentioned in November of that year on polit.ru[21], and in March 2013 in an article of the Russian Reporter magazine devoted to the activities of participants in the Russia 2045 movement, with reference to the American futurist Raymond Kurzweil.”

→[21] November 01, 2012, IRINA SAMAKHOVA, The saga about Forsyth

The Russian scientific and educational sphere seems to consist of three independent layers: the futuristic, the normative and, in the terminology of the observational S.G. Kordonsky, the "actually" layer. Few people are interested in the latter, because it is a priori bad and needs radical reform. Having given up on the bleak reality, experts draw the desired future, and legislators are trying to create a regulatory framework for it.

Now there is a fashion for foresights. Today, in August [2012], the advanced public plunged into the foresight steamer and, using the method of multi-day brainstorming, constructed a vision of a new university education for Russia. According to experts, in some ten or twenty years [2022 or 2032] we will all find ourselves in a fully digitized world where high-level artificial intelligence rules, people are united by massive "neural interfaces", and almost all needs are met with the help of a "neural network". It is clear that both science and education in such a world are losing their usual outlines. The foresight participants proclaimed "the end of classical fundamental science", which will be replaced by "interdisciplinary wiki-assemblies of scientific pictures of the world". Well, higher education will have to go through, firstly, "dehumanization", i.e. a preferential transition to practice-oriented models, internalization, digitalization, individualization and gradual privatization by business. The authors of the forecast, however, stipulate that in addition to the common "deserted" educational fast food, obtained through the "neuronet", there will remain for the elite the possibility of expensive high-intensity "live" education — training in "communities of practice". Those Russian universities that will not keep up with rapid progress will be "niched" for industry or regional needs, and specialists who have become superfluous will be "new reservations" and "exemption from the format of permanent employment" (and since 2015!).

You can console yourself with the fact that you never know who will dream up something, and this "wonderful new world" will not come tomorrow, or maybe it will not come at all.

But it wasn't just a private river trip. Foresight participants representing the Agency for Strategic Initiatives and the Moscow School of Management Skolkovo actively advise the government and influence the formation of the current scientific and educational policy.

This policy has been clearly visible for several years. Like Francis Fukuyama, who once declared liberal democracy the crown (and the end) of History, near-Kremlin experts do not extend their imagination beyond today's American educational model, which is distinguished by harsh pragmatism.

The main trend influencing the change in the situation in Russian education (and in science) is declared to be "the orientation of universities to the needs of the economy and society: the practicality of the acquired knowledge and skills, their compliance with the current tasks of the employer, the correspondence of the content of scientific research to market needs." All this served as the ideological basis of the new Law on Education. Behind its huge unreadable text and run-in formulations is hidden the change of the Russian scientific and educational paradigm, which for some reason is not discussed much.

It is sickening to think that we are all born into the world, grow up and study for a long time solely in order to please a future employer.



Nothing prevents us from studying and reproducing the experience of NSU and SB RAS [Novosibirsk State University and Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences] on the integration of science and education on the scale of the Russian Federation. But no, we will extol the overseas MIT and we'll "stick our muzzle in her glass." It is still unknown what will happen to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology when it is partially transferred to the Moscow region soil in Skolkovo. And what if, dear one, he will die in the absence of the usual atmosphere of democracy and the market? Or, worse, he will get infected on the next "foresight steamer" with an extraordinary lightness of thought.

I am afraid that the ebullient activity of its own scientific and educational officials threatens Russia much more than the intrigues of imperialist detractors. I ask you not to consider this private opinion the disclosure of a terrible state secret.
**
back to → https://ru.wikipedia.org - Neuronet

“Speaking at the TED conference in February 2005, Kurzweil predicted that by 2029 man would begin to merge with technology. And during a speech at the DEMO conference in Santa Clara (California) in October 2012, he talked about the future expansion of brain capabilities through cloud computing, that is, about the exocortex. In August 2013, the term Neuronet was voiced by Pavel Luksha, professor of the Moscow School of Management "Skolkovo" at the Foresight Fleet conducted by the Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI)[25], as well as during presentations of the results of the foresight project "Education 2030"[27].

→[25]14.08.2013 | Organization of scientific activity: VPO. Education reform, Elizabeth Yasinovskaya

WHERE IS THE FUTURE GOING

"The future will not come by itself, / If we do not take measures. / For its gills, – Komsomol! / By his tail, – pioneer!" – under the screaming headline "Drag out the future!" the straightforward singer of the revolution and futurist Vladimir Mayakovsky famously cheered up those who have grown up "to a powerful life to come." It was in 1925, but the unpredictable future, apparently, has sunk into the water again and is not hooked again. Therefore, modern "revolutionaries" took it by the tail and gills: for the second year in a row, the Agency for Strategic Initiatives to promote new projects has been gathering a team of experts from business, science and education, officials and gaming professionals, students and journalists to equip a whole "Foresight Fleet" for the week–long search for Russia-2025. It's no joke, but one of his ships, puzzled by catching future education and personnel in the waters of the Ladoga and Onega lakes, this year proudly bore the name of a loud poet. How can I not remember the song lines from "The Adventures of Captain Vrungel": "As you name the yacht, so it is..."

Pavel Luksha: "We will be able to assemble ourselves as superhumans"

They dispersed like ships at sea

"The place where the model of the country is assembled," Pavel Luksha, director of corporate educational programs at the Moscow School of Management "Skolkovo", called the two ships that sailed from the port of St. Petersburg to the shores of Karelia. One special flight was dedicated to education and human resources, the other to entrepreneurship and new industries in Russia. And although experts on both ships tried to put together a single picture of the future of the vast motherland using game–technical methods, it was hardly possible to do this in full: symbolic ships churned foam almost as independently of each other as the corresponding spheres of Russian life - education and entrepreneurship - are independent "on land". Only occasionally did "Vladimir Mayakovsky" and "Konstantin Korotkov" converge on common points – for example, during the game elections of the "chief designer" of Russia in 2025.

The educational vessel "fleet" has combined a whole list of foresights – on education, children's services, competencies, preventive medicine and even public spaces and urban art. All of them were conducted according to the Rapid Foresight methodology, developed in 2008 as part of the domestic movement "Metaver – education of the future", and for an outsider they looked like daily brainstorming sessions, "burdened" with gaming practices – role-playing and business "Games into the future": with a fictional currency "vlibl", their own government and educational projects which were brought with them by young guys who passed the competition for participation in the Foresight Fleet. However, Konstantin Garanin, the founder of the CityCelebrity crowdsourcing platform, already at the end of the trip suggested inviting leaders without projects in the future: "This will result in unexpected builds of projects without any presets."

The participants of the educational sessions reacted differently to the starting and ending points of foresight: some suggested that for greater efficiency it was necessary to start by criticizing last year's roadmaps, others talked about the indiscipline of group thought and the need for single formats. Anatoly Prokhorov, Chairman of the Board of the National Children's Fund and head of the Smeshariki project, even suggested that sex foresight be conducted in the future, but Oleg Grinko, chairman of the Board of Directors of the Savings and Investments Management Company and master of Chinese tea ceremonies at Mayakovsky, said that it was impossible to consider separately education, childhood, preventive medicine and what-or other spheres of human life: "There should be a Forsyte tree in which there are no children and old people, but there is a person standing on solid roots – that is, on our history, rethought three generations ago."

Workbooks: a look at childhood in 2025

Educational supermarket, Lego and school as a storage room

One of the most powerful trends of the near future, according to the organizers of the floating event, is the process of globalization of education, in which Russia is significantly lagging behind, since it borrows largely outdated solutions from developed countries. "All the changes are mainly related to the Internet – as a new practice of communication between people," Luksha said at the introductory session to all foresights. "The Internet and digital technologies generally set new models for the creation, transfer and evaluation of knowledge and skills." The economy presses with its pragmatics, and in this situation a kind of educational fork is inevitable: either universities will work with exceptionally narrow specialists necessary to solve specific tasks, or they will take on the most flexible students who are able to quickly adapt to changes in the surrounding world and technological way. In any case, new formats of training specialists are waiting for us in the future.

Some educational practices (for example, the mentor–student model) may have originated "back in the Paleolithic," according to Luksha: "The individual educational trajectory has also been known since ancient times, although it was accessible only to a small number of people."

Modern education is already influenced by information and communication technologies, medicine and fitness, finance and investment. At the same time, not university "crusts" and financial resources will be valued more and more every year, but human reputation – a contribution to society that is not measured by money (that is, the volunteer sector, all types of donation and philanthropy).

And most likely, multi-user online courses will radically change the landscape of education, which, in terms of the quality and effectiveness of pedagogy, can easily surpass what national universities give to a Russian student. It is no coincidence that Russian students make up the second largest audience of Coursera, a well–known online education project founded by Stanford University professors. Today Coursera translates its courses into eight languages of the world, among which there is Russian, and meanwhile edX, a similar project of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University, is following in its footsteps.

"These are not just individual courses," Luksha explained. – They are already beginning to be built into long educational chains and supplemented with a recruitment system, thereby obtaining an effective system for selecting students from all over the world. And after all, the claim of such structures is to build an educational institution for billions of people."

Perhaps knowledge will soon be able to be uploaded directly to the brain

In the very foreseeable future, virtual worlds will become a space where people study, work, and spend their leisure time. The death of the "Gutenberg galaxy" (that is, the era of printing), according to experts, has already flashed its scythe, and it is possible that in the 2030s artificial intelligence will finally become a partner and mentor of a person, neural interfaces, a neural network will appear, and information will be loaded directly into the human brain. "We will be able to assemble ourselves as superhumans," Luksha concludes. This will also be facilitated by Lego education: a kind of constructor that a person will work with after completing basic higher education.

But these are distant horizons, and for now we are all waiting for a kind of "educational supermarket" of online services designed for children, and the stratification of schools into "elite" ones, in which new pedagogy will be available, and mass ones, which will acquire the function of a safe "storage room", "where parents take their children to forget about them". Probably, the rejection of the format of the unified state exam, to which Russia has been going for so long, is not far off in Europe: by 2015, the UK is going to replace a similar school exam with an essay.


Isak Frumin believes that the proportion of people willing to study has not increased much over the past 2000 years

According to Isak Frumin, research director of the HSE Institute for the Development of Education, in this case our country has three pointers to the crossroads: isolation and preservation of independence, identity, inclusion in the global agenda and an attempt to become a node of the global educational network.

Elite Artisans and Smart Workers

"In Mandrogi, we went down to the shore and saw a simple wooden product called "Matryoshka" worth 30 thousand rubles," one of the participants of the foresight dedicated to competencies noted. He and his colleagues suggested that in the future the authors of such products will be considered elite artisans – that is, those who focus on individual production of high quality and with artistic meaning. These artisans will work, for example, in conjunction with the tourism business and "bohemian sales". The second type of "simple worker" of the future is a mass artisan who will create only models (for the same 3D printing). Its appearance is facilitated by a change in the technological structure of production: from mass to local.

Smart Worker is the third type: he is not equal to today's worker, he is a qualified operator and designer, who, however, will not interfere in any way with the existence of the fourth type – all people who know how to do something with their own hands.

Not only the type of worker himself will change, but also the forms of organization of his work. "Now corporations are built hierarchically, they hold critical resources," Pavel Luksha explains the work on the foresight of competencies. "But in the future they may well become communities that hold the brand, common standards of activity, and inside they will be independent teams coordinating with each other through network planning."

Aura as a technology

"Culture concerns every fifth, education concerns every second, and health concerns everyone," Oleg Grinko's team, who worked on the foresight of preventive medicine, created a truly fantastic image of a man of the future during the voyage on the Mayakovsky, for whom the basic value is healthy longevity. Both physical and spiritual.

Oleg Grinko associates the technology of human protection, diagnosis and correction with the "aura concept"

"We need to think about those times where we are no longer there," says Grinko and describes a man dressed in a bio-suit-homeostat. In his opinion, preventive medicine (that is, preventing diseases) is a new technology that should become a system of self–management of human life. It will be a serious counterweight to the "repair medicine" of modernity: "Life should be without repair – we are not a motor vehicle," notes Grinko. A passive client of medicine will change to an active one, who is responsible for his own health. Relatively speaking, everyone has their own "carcass", which you need to learn how to manage.

According to the forecasts of Mr. Grinko and his colleagues, by 2016, the crisis of trust in doctors and medicine will lead to an increase in self-medication and the popularity of spiritual practices. Gradually, a system for monitoring the health of consciousness will appear, antibiotics will "die", and only the network community will be able to take on health problems, since there will be no money left in the Russian budget by that time.

But in the future there will be new professions: someone like a "zoo technician" who will work with human injuries, a meta-consultant and a personal mentor in an individual health trajectory. Grinko associates the technology for the protection, diagnosis and correction of a person with the "aura concept" and suggests changing the money–commodity–money paradigm invented by Karl Marx to "health – business – health".

In the future, a person appears on the horizon already in a spacesuit, with a battery and a chip, so outside the range of the "333G" simply "cuts off". "Death is possible in the form of a cocoon with altered biochemistry, and a rewrite of consciousness is also possible," the head of Sberinvest sums up. – Do you need it?"


The beginning of the development of a roadmap for higher education

Through the anthropic barrier – into digital nirvana

In the radicalism and boldness of the results, only the foresight of public spaces and urban art could compete with the foresight of preventive medicine. The team that worked on it managed to enrich the Russian language with new terms, such as cosmopersonalization of a person and his nomadization (from the Greek nomades – nomads). The cosmos, in her opinion, will become an art space, and a person will become an object of art, drowning in the networking of spaces, ecology, new myths and religions.

If a person steps over the "anthropic barrier", it is possible that he will completely go into the "figure". And to get him to go offline and socialize, he will have to be motivated. As a possible solution, the art experts of Foresight Fleet saw a conditional "Agape" - an offline space of love that cannot be found in the vastness of virtual reality. With the help of a new mythologization, they proposed to create "tourist Meccas" and encourage people to real and even walking trips.

The experts of the fleet proposed to make a digital profile of a person a link between all these foresights, in which he will be able to celebrate his achievements throughout his life. However, the temptation to "plunge into digital nirvana" is fraught with the dangers of the New Middle Ages: the further a person goes into the figure, the less he wants to study and do anything at all, and may become a hostage of the services he created.

Perhaps these futuristic threats really have something in common with the real picture of the world. After all, despite the fact that almost all of this fantasy journey, the ships of the Foresight Fleet could not even boast of stable low-speed Internet, the notorious 3G has already reached the monastery island of Valaam. And not only did I get there: the children of laypeople living on the territory of the Valaam Archipelago receive education on the Internet in high school. Anyway, that's what the guides say.”

***

continues...
 

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511
We came to:
“Speaking at the TED conference in February 2005, Kurzweil predicted that by 2029 man would begin to merge with technology. And during a speech at the DEMO conference in Santa Clara (California) in October 2012, he talked about the future expansion of brain capabilities through cloud computing, that is, about the exocortex. In August 2013, the term Neuronet was voiced by Pavel Luksha, professor of the Moscow School of Management "Skolkovo" at the Foresight Fleet conducted by the Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI), as well as during presentations of the results of the foresight project "Education 2030"

Continues consideration of https://ru.wikipedia.org - Neuronet

***

On October 16, 2014 at the office of the Russian Venture Company (RVC), an expert seminar "The Neuronet Roadmap" was held with the participation of Stephen Dunn, director of Starlab Neuroscience Research; Karen Casey, creator of the Global Mind Project; Randal A. Kuhne, CEO of the Science Foundation Carboncopies.org and the founder of NeuraLink Co.; Mikhail Lebedev, Senior Researcher An employee at the Neuroengineering Center of the Department of Neurobiology at Duke University Medical Center (M. Nicolelis Laboratory); Evgeny Kuznetsov, Deputy General Director of RVC. The seminar was conducted by the co-founders of the Russian Neuronet Group Pavel Luksha and Timur Shchukin, as well as the head of the RVC Innovation Ecosystem Development Service Georgy Gogolev[28] [29][30]”

[30 no longer exist]

[28] - Russian Venture Company (RVC)/ PRESS RELEASE/ 10/21/2014

"
The world's leading experts discussed the future of neuroscience and neurotechnology at the RVC seminar

Last week, the RVC office hosted an expert seminar "Neuronet Roadmap", at which the world's leading experts in the field of neuroscience and members of the Russian Neuronet group discussed neuroscience and neurotechnology – one of the most relevant areas of research.

The seminar participants said that applied solutions in this area are developing at an accelerated pace. With the help of implanted electrodes, the monkey can already control two independent moving targets. New neural interfaces are just around the corner: scientists turn neurons on and off using light signals and can read information from them and transmit signals to them, introducing neural dust into the brain – the smallest crystals, no larger than 5 microns. All these achievements promise breakthroughs in the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, in the development of auditory and visual prostheses.

Neurotechnologies affect the sphere of entertainment, the education system, approaches to the management of industry and trade. But the most important result of a scientific and technological breakthrough in the field of neuroscience is the achievement of a new quality in communications. The modern Internet transmits information and even semantics, but is powerless in transmitting emotions and the unconscious. The Neuronet is the next generation of the Internet, which will use neural interfaces to create new types of communication between people and machines. By linking hundreds or, in the future, even billions of intelligences into a neurocomputer network, it will be possible to achieve a synergistic effect in their joint work, since the brain has the property of plasticity. Perhaps, in the era of the Neural Network, people will finally agree on solving the world's problems, because an environment will appear that will help overcome the usual human distortions of thinking and perception. New opportunities will open up in teamwork and improving the effectiveness of educational programs.

But, it is necessary to take into account and calculate the negative consequences of the onset of the era of the Neuronet. The new Internet can become a tool for manipulating public consciousness, surpassing in propaganda power all hitherto known mass media and communications. However, technological innovations have not always been exclusively for the benefit of humanity: one of the results of the invention of 3D printing was the proliferation of weapons, and the Internet brought with it hacking, cyberterrorism and, on a more massive scale, various syndromes and addictions.

In the movement to the Neuronet, it is important not to lag behind, but rather to get ahead of competitors – the experts of the seminar emphasized. But the introduction of new technologies in this area is hampered by the fact that venture investments are short–term by definition and usually do not apply to ambitious projects. And the enthusiasm of people who are able to promote this concept in the investment environment is very important here. The role of development institutions is to identify key technological trends and stages of their development, to propose formats and areas of application of Neuronet technologies and, ultimately, mechanisms for stimulating scientific and technological breakthroughs in this area, including through the implementation of specific projects with the potential for commercialization.

Presenters of the seminar:

Pavel Luksha (PhD, Professor at Skolkovo Business School, Director of Global Education Futures)

Timur Shchukin (Co–head of the group "Designers of Communities of Practice") - co-founders of the Russian Neuronet Group

Georgy Gogolev – Head of the Innovation Ecosystem Development Service, RVC

Panelists:

Stephen Dunn, PhD, Director, Neuroscience Research Starlab

Karen Casey, PhD, Creator and Director, Global Mind Project

Randal A. Kuhne, PhD, CEO of the Science Foundation Carboncopies.org , founder of NeuraLink Co.

Mikhail Lebedev, PhD, Senior Researcher at the Center for Neuroengineering (Nicolelis Lab), Department of Neurobiology at Duke University Medical Center

Evgeny Kuznetsov – Deputy General Director – Director of the RVC Project Office"

**

[29] - Neuronet (NeuroWeb) will become the next generation of the Internet /Vladimir Mitin 17.10.2014/

Many participants of the international seminar held last night on the territory of the Russian Venture Company (RVC) are sure of this.

And Pavel Luksha, Ph.D. in Economics, professor at the Skolkovo Business School, Director of Global Education Futures, one of the co-founders of the Russian Neuronet Group, is most confident in this.

In his opinion, the possibilities of the current Internet are very limited. In particular, they do not allow direct transfer of life experiences and emotions from brain to brain. The Neuronet will allow you to raise the quality of communications to a whole new level.

In addition, it will dramatically increase the efficiency of teamwork and open up new opportunities in the field of training.


Pavel Luksha [on the photo] believes that in the modern world, many problems arise due to the fact that people cannot agree with each other on the joint use of certain resources. The neural network – through the organization of a kind of “collective mind” - will help to solve these problems.


Neuronet is the same as the World Wide Web. Only its “nodes” are not smartphones, tablets and laptops, but human brains “plastered” with inclusive or non-inclusive electronics

From a technical point of view, the work of a Neuronet is as follows: electrodes are inserted into a person's head in the right places, which can both record the activity of neurons in the human brain and affect these neurons. Instead of temporarily used and rather bulky electrodes, permanently sewn microimplants can be used. So-called non-invasive solutions are also possible, that is, solutions that do not require surgical intervention and outwardly look, for example, like a helmet put on the head of a Neuronet user while the latter wishes to use the services of a Neuronet. The electrical signals taken from this “neural helmet” are encoded in a certain way and fed into the already existing wired or wireless structure of the high-speed Internet.

The roadmap for the development of the Neuronet for the period from 2014 to 2040 is shown below.

The main stages of the development of the Neuronet, Source: Pavel Luksha. Presentation “Roadmap for the development of the Neuronet”, 2014

On the table, top to bottom and left to right:

Top row:

left: BiometriNet (pre-Neuronet) (2014-2024)

center: The onset of the Neuronet (2025-2035)

right: Full-Fledged Neuronet (2035+)


under them, second row:

Development of "iron technologies" of the Neuronet: network, brain-computer interfaces, AI, data exchange protocol

third row:

left: Ultra fast learning technologies: prerequisites for the use of the exocortex [which concerns the first stage, Biometrinet 2025-2035]

center: Experiments with the exocortex [concerns the second stage 2014-2024]

right: Direct connection between the exocortex and the neurocortex [concerns the third stage 2035+]


under them, row 4:

left: Blue Mind: Digital BigData models of psychical processes

right: "The language of the Neuronet': communication protocols based on digital models of BigLiveData mental processes


under them, row 5:

left: Research of productive states of consciousness for collective consciousness

right: Digital and pharmacological management of the transition to productive states of consciousness


under them, row 6 (and last):

left: Development of tools and protocols for managing collective thinking processes

right: Collective consciousness of Neuronet: from neuronet collectives to "forests of consciousness" (stable collective mind)


Translate the timeline at the bottom: ... :)I'm kidding:):) You seeing: 2014, 2020, 2030, 2040.

The original article continues below the table:

It shows that the Neurоnet is preceded by Biometrinet (2014-2024), which is based on Internet communications using various biometric information from wearable devices. Strictly speaking, the explosive growth of the market of fitness gadgets that track various body parameters (temperature, pulse, pressure, motor activity, and so on) we are watching right now. In this sense, neuro detectors can be considered as one of the types of biosensors.

The main stages of Biometrinet development, Source: Pavel Luksha. Presentation “Roadmap for the development of the Neural network”, 2014

On the table, top to bottom and left to right:

Intermediate step: Before the Neuronet, Biometrinet is emerging

In the blue:

left: Biometri-Net: Internet communications that use various biometric information from wearable devices, eye trackers, recognition systems for body movement patterns and facial expressions, and others.

right: Neuronet: Internet communications that use neuroinformation along with biometrics


under them, first row:

lef: Biometrics readings (for management, training, and others): wearable devices (KGR, myogram, pulse, temperature, and others), non-invasive neurointerface, eye tracker, scanning of body and face movements. [biometrinet]

right: High-precision reading from neural interfaces. [neuronet]


under them, second row:

left: Biometrics metalanguage: recognition of complex patterns in the multidimensional space of body and consciousness states (based on combinations of indicators), supported by BigLiveData. [biometrinet]

right: Mapping the multidimensional space of states of consciousness patterns of neurons. [neuronet]


under them, third row:

left: Biometrics management: training through biofeedback for mastering various states of consciousness + psychotechnics for fast switching between states. [biometrinet]

right: Training with BOS and techniques for activating neural patterns. [neuronet]


*BOS (in English) - Biological Reverse Communications / biofeedback

under them, fourth, last row:

left: Artificial agents that copy and maintain complex mental functions based on biometrics. [biometrinet]

right: Exocortex based on artificial agents. [neuronet]


You seeing the timeline at the bottom:

2014—→2020—→ 2030 the emergence of neuronet

Article continues below the table, and finishes:

When Biometrinet becomes commonplace, the "Neuronet Offensive" will begin (2025-2035), during which communication protocols based on digital models of mental processes will be developed and approaches to organizing a “collective consciousness” capable of “brainstorming” and solving tasks that require the concerted efforts of many people will be found.

A full-fledged Neural network, according to the drafters of this roadmap, will arise only after 2035.

Of course, any new technology can be used both for good and for harm. For example, there are already Internet-dependent people for whom “virtual reality" does not complement and enrich the “true reality", but replaces it. Therefore, I would very much not like to see the mass appearance of neuronet-dependent people.

***
 

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511
Review of the roadmap of Neuronet from the PDF on National Technology Initiative (from Page 3)
The concept of artificial intelligence and legal responsibility for its work
(V.A. Laptev, Associate Professor of the Department of Business and Corporate Law of the O.E. Kutafin Moscow State Law University (MGUA), Doctor of Law; journal "Law. Journal of the Higher School of Economics", N 2, April-June 2019)

"Neurotechnologies and Neuronet are close in essence to artificial intelligence, but they have different nature and application. Neurotechnologies allow us to use the full potential of the human brain, in fact, participating in human mental activity and increasing its productivity. Neuronet is a system of human-machine communications and information exchange through neurocomputer interfaces based on hybrid digital-analog architectures. The neural network is considered the next generation of the Internet (Web 4.0) and the basis for creating hybrid human-machine intelligence. This creates prerequisites for the development of bio-cyberphysical organisms.

In Russian legislation, the concept of a neural electronic computing machine is enshrined in Presidential Decrees No. 1268 of 26.08.1996 and No. 1661 of 17.12.2011. Thus, a neural computer is a computing device designed or modified to simulate the behavior of a neuron or a set of neurons, for example, a computing device characterized by the ability of the equipment to modulate the weight and number of mutual connections of a set of computing components based on previous information. A set of computers or processors with artificial intelligence form a neural network similar to the structure of neurons in the human cerebral cortex, where a neuron is an electrically excitable cell that processes, stores and transmits information using electrical and chemical signals [Williams R., Herrup K., 1988: 423-453].

The development of the Neural network in Russia is facilitated by the recently approved roadmap for improving legislation and removing administrative barriers in order to implement the National Technological Initiative in the direction of "Neural Network", which ensures the participation of Russian companies in the emerging global markets of products and services in the field of means human-machine communications. The roadmap contains the following segments of the application of the Neural Network: neuromed technology, neuro pharma, neuroeducation, neuro communication, neuro entertainment and neurosport, neuro assistants and artificial intelligence, other related technologies (virtual and augmented reality, medical robotics, big data collection and processing).

Russian statistics show the active pace of the introduction of artificial intelligence in the industry. In particular, by 2019, it was predicted to connect about 1.9 million units of equipment to the industrial Internet, of which 1.3 million. — in mechanical engineering and 0.6 million — in process production. The volume of use of artificial intelligence and machine learning in monetary terms in 2017 amounted to 700 million rubles and will grow to 28 billion rubles by 20208.

Taking into account the provisions of Federal Law No. 488-FZ of December 31, 2014 "On Industrial Policy in the Russian Federation",9 such areas of artificial intelligence application as machine and shipbuilding, metallurgy, electric power, petrochemical, light and medical industries are promising. The introduction of artificial intelligence into business education, including virtual schools and universities, electronic libraries, will also be effective.

Among the applied use of artificial intelligence (in electronic form) can be defined: smart contracts (smart contracts), cybersecurity (protection of electronic databases, anti-hacking system), smart home, etc. At the same time, the spread of artificial intelligence has a serious drawback — jobs are disappearing, a number of professions will soon lose relevance.
...
The article attempts to reveal the concept of artificial intelligence as a legal category, its authentication, and also identifies possible ways of developing domestic legislation in terms of legal responsibility for its work. The period of studying artificial intelligence and scientific modeling of its way of thinking began only in the middle of the twentieth century. Industrial robots were only the third stage (Industry 3.0), while artificial intelligence and cyber-physical systems became the fourth stage of the industrial revolution (Industry 4.0).

The relevance of this study is due to the course chosen by the leadership of Russia and other countries of the Eurasian Economic Union for the development of the digital economy, including using artificial intelligence (decision of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council No. 12 dated 11.10.2017 "On the Main directions of the implementation of the digital Agenda of the Eurasian Economic Union until 2025", Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 642 dated 1.12.2016 "On the Strategy of Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation"1, Government Orders No. 482-p2 of 23.03.2018 and No. 1632-p3 of 28.07.2017 etc.). A lot of questions on this issue
are discussed on specialized websites on the Internet and at international congresses. ..."


https :// www .garant.ru/products/ipo/prime/doc/71818300/
Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 552-r of March 30, 2018 On the Approval of the Action Plan (Roadmap) to Improve Legislation and Eliminate Administrative Barriers in Order to Ensure the Implementation of the National Technological Initiative in the direction of "Neuronet"

Document overview

An action plan ("roadmap") has been approved to improve legislation and eliminate administrative barriers in order to ensure the implementation of the National Technological Initiative in the direction of "Neuronet".

The implementation of the roadmap is aimed at ensuring the priority positions of Russian companies in the emerging global markets of products and services in the field of human-machine communications.

The key areas are the development and promotion, including to these emerging global markets, of products based on advanced developments in neurotechnologies and increasing the productivity of human-machine systems, the productivity of mental and thought processes, the planned segments of "Neuronet". The latter include "Neuromedicine", "Neuropharma", "Neuroeducation", "Neuro-communication", "Neuro-entertainment and Neurosport", "Neuroassistents and Artificial Intelligence". We are also talking about related technologies - virtual and augmented reality, medical robotics, big data collection and processing."'
https : //nti2035.ru/catalog/

Project registry
Maintaining a register of STI projects in order to implement action plans ("road maps") The National Technological Initiative (hereinafter referred to as the DC, NTI, respectively) is carried out by the NTI project office in accordance with paragraph 6 of the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation "On the implementation of the National Technological Initiative" dated April 18, 2016 No. 317, in accordance with the information set out in the description of the projects.

The NTI project is a complex of interrelated activities aimed at creating a unique product or service necessary to achieve the goals of the project and the NTI roadmaps, in conditions of time and resource constraints.

Project stage:
Initiation – development of the project model, consideration of the project by the project committee

Development – development of the project description, consideration at the meeting of the working group

Selection – consideration of the project at a meeting of the interdepartmental working group on the development and implementation of the National Technology Initiative under the Presidium of the Presidential Council for Economic Modernization and Innovative Development of Russia (IWG)

Implementation − creation of products and services in accordance with the scope, cost and timing of the NTI project.

Completion − analysis of the success of the NTI project, preparation of a report on the results of the "Implementation" stage, decision-making at the meeting of the IWG on the closure of the NTI project and archiving of materials on the NTI project.

Support measures:
Development institutes – support of project activities by development institutes (ASI, RVC, Skolkovo, FSI, VEB, etc.)

Subsidizing – financial support of STI projects in accordance with the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 317 dated April 18, 2016 "On the implementation of the National Technology Initiative"

The NTI Development Contest is a competition for grant support of NTI projects implemented by the Innovation Promotion Fund.

The purpose of the competition is to support R&D in order to implement action plans ("road maps") National Technology Initiative.

Technology competitions – financial support for the winning projects of the UpGreat technology competition

Download
Register of STI projects approved by the 317th Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation (NTI Foundation)
---

https :// nti2035 .ru/upload/project_register_31.10.2022.pdf

Projects that received support in accordance with the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated April 18, 2016 No. 317 "On the implementation of the National Technology Initiative"

Neuronet
SOVA

Software and hardware platform for creating voice and text smart assistants with open source SOVA.AI
Virtual Assistants LLC
01.09.2019 - 31.12.2022
Realization
- -
Neuronet
Neural

Creation of an international network of gaming attractions and a database of computer games with
neuro-management, distributed infrastructure for automated collection, quality analysis and storage of large neurodata about the brain and physiological activity of users in the process of solving various gaming and educational tasks based on the created network. And in the future - conducting research aimed at analyzing the received neuro data and developing algorithms to optimize human performance
Neiri LLC 21.09.2020 - 28.02.2023 Implementation - -
- -
Helsnet
Living breath

A new method of drug delivery using modern information and telecommunication technologies based on a technological platform for combating socially significant and systemic diseases
NP IVC LLC 26.09.2017 - 11.01.2023
Realization
--
Helsnet

Health Heuristics Platform
An intelligent decision-making platform based on artificial intelligence for analyzing heterogeneous human data and developing individual solutions to increase health reserves, improve quality of life, prolong longevity and reduce mortality from non-communicable diseases
SOYUZ SPORT AND LLC HEALTH 21.09.2020 - 29.10.2024
Realization
--
Energinet
Integrated energy supply platform "Topaz"

Development of scientific and technical reserves and development of technologies that ensure overcoming technological barriers and advancing the development of end-to-end technology "New and mobile energy sources"
Inenergy LLC 01.01.2019 - 15.06.2024 Implementation
--
Neuronet Neuro Ear
Recognition of sound events and scenes (speech or sounds of emergency situations), decoding
"speech cocktail" — highly noisy audio signals recorded under conditions of overlapping voices. The project "Neuro-ear" is based on machine hearing technologies
MDG-Innovations LLC 02.04.2018 - 31.07.2021 Completion

--
Helsnet
Creation of a platform and technologies for network biobanks of tissues and cellular products Creation of a platform and technologies for network biobanks of tissues and cellular products in 5 regions of the Russian Federation on the example of a complex service product National BioService Without support 09/14/2018 - 03/31/2022 Completion
--
Neuronet
Neurobarometer

Development of a software and hardware complex for predicting consumer behavior based on neurocognitive measurements, combining solutions for oculography, EEG (electroencephalogram), electrodermal activity, ECG (electrocardiogram), plethysmogram and evaluation of nonverbal facial expressions, with the possibility of automatic calculation of integral metrics
JSC Neurotrend 01.12.2017 - 21.09.2020
Post-project monitoring
--
Neuronet
Neurointelligence

iPavlov is a conversational artificial intelligence system capable of replacing a Call Center operator
MIPT 15.03.2017 - 21.01.2021
Post-project monitoring

--
Technet

Development and application of digital production technologies in the production
of superconductors

An integrated technological chain of production of customized HTSP wire - a key product for the markets of new energy, advanced electric propulsion systems, medicine, high–energy physics and high—tech industries - created using advanced technologies for collecting and digitally analyzing large amounts of data, self-learning, artificial intelligence and the industrial Internet of Things
S-INNOVATIONS LLC 29.11.2019 07.10.2021
Post-project monitoring
--
Healbe Healthnet is a device that allows you to automatically track the number of calories a person receives from food and spent on physical activity, as well as the level of hydration and stress
Hilby LLC 08.01.2018 - 15.10.2021
Post-project monitoring
- -
Energynet
Architecture IoEN

Creation of a full-scale model of the implementation of the reference architecture of the "Internet of Energy" (IoEN – Internet of Energy). At the same time, the IoEN reference architecture should be aimed at creating a scalable network of self-optimizing clusters of energy exchange between active consumers (prosumers), local energy suppliers and a centralized power system that ensures the fulfillment of differentiated consumer requirements for the availability, reliability and quality of energy supply at a minimum reduced cost
of electricity

The Foundation of the CSR North-West; FGBOU IN NIU MEI
01.01.2018 - 07.10.2021
Post-project monitoring

_______________________
https : // nti2035.ru/markets/mneuronet

Neuronet

"Road Map" "Neuronet" was approved by Protocol No. 1 of 02/28/12 by absentee voting of members of the Presidium of the Government Commission for Economic Modernization and Innovative Development of Russia.

The market of human-machine communication tools based on advanced developments in neurotechnologies and increasing the productivity of human-machine systems, the productivity of mental and mental processes.

The predecessor market is the market of wearable devices that transmit information via the Internet. New technologies, products and services of Neuronet will be developed based on the results of intensive study of the human brain and nervous system.

description
The next technological revolution will be associated with neurotechnologies and a radical increase in the productivity of mental labor due to the integration of the human brain and computing machines. The rapid development of this direction will begin after the decoding (mapping) of the brain is completed, by analogy with the biotechnological revolution that started after the decoding of the human genome.

The neural network will be the next stage in the development of the current Internet (Web 4.0), in which the interaction of participants (human— human, human—machine) will be carried out using new neurocomputer interfaces
, in addition to traditional methods, and the computers themselves will become neuromorphic (similar to the brain) based on hybrid digital-analog architectures. The emergence of social neural networks and full-fledged hybrid human-machine intelligence is predicted.

The use of neurotechnologies in the field of education will dramatically increase the volume and speed of assimilation of new knowledge, while the development of technologies such as neurofitness and memory modulation will lead to the possibility of multiple enhancement of cognitive abilities.

In the field of medicine, there will be technologies that allow the use of artificial limbs and additional sensory organs, which by 2035 will develop into accessible to the mass consumer neurocontrol of household space. At the same time, effective targeted biomarkers and drugs that can treat various age-related dementias, including Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease, are expected to appear in the ten-year future. And in twenty years, the discovery of gene and cellular technologies for brain correction is possible.

In the XXI century, the world is faced with global problems common to all countries [o_O:D]:

- population ageing;
- the increasing complexity of the technosphere;
- an increase in the number of man-made disasters;
- increasing the information load.

The answer to this is the emergence of various solutions based on neurotechnologies, including hybrid human-machine intelligence, which will significantly expand the resources of the human brain and increase its productivity through integration with the technosphere.

Neuronet Industry Union - http :// rusneuro.net

purposes
The main goal of the Neuronet roadmap is to form a globally competitive Russian segment of the Neuronet market, ensuring the emergence of at least 10 national champion companies by 2035 (champion companies are companies that occupy a place in the top three in the B2C market segment or prominent positions in the B2B market segment with a total capitalization of about 70 billion rubles and more).

Creation of new market segments in the field of Neural network technology, including the main factors of demand, key market niches and possible types of products and services that will fill these niches;

Identification of key technologies that will be used to create products and services of the Neural Network;

To extend these decisions within the framework of intergovernmental agreements and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to the entire world market, including taking into account decisions in the EU.

Ensuring the coordination of actions of public authorities at various levels, development institutions, investors and professional communities for the development of Neural networks;

Creating a conceptual framework for public-private partnership on the development of the Neural Network;

Definition of a strategic vector for the development and adjustment of the regulatory framework in matters related to the Neural Network, including training and retraining of personnel, the creation of new educational standards.


KEY MARKET SEGMENTS

Neuroassistents
Development of natural language understanding technology, deep machine learning, personal electronic assistants.

Neuroeducation
Development of neurointerfaces and virtual and augmented reality technologies in teaching; educational programs and devices on neurotechnologies, devices for strengthening memory and analyzing the use of brain resources.

Neurometrics
Development of neuroprosthetics of sensory organs; development of technical means of rehabilitation for the disabled with the use of neurotechnologies; means of robotherapy with biofeedback; multimodal, interactive, adaptive neural interfaces for the mass consumer with an increase in the volume of transmitted information.

Neuro-entertainment and sports
Development of brain fitness, games using neurogajets, neurodeveloping games.

Neuro-communications and marketing
Development of neuromarketing technologies, prediction of mass and individual behavioral effects based on neuro- and biometric data; decision support systems; technologies for identifying the nearest emotionally colored locations for the formation of resource states; technologies for optimizing body processes during collective activity.

Neuropharma
Development of gene and cell therapy and correction; early diagnosis, treatment and prevention of neurodegenerative diseases; enhancement of cognitive abilities of healthy people.


ROAD MAPS
"Roadmaps" are strategic planning documents containing a set of measures that are interconnected by tasks, deadlines, performers and resources. The main categories of roadmaps activities are the creation, development and promotion of technologies, products and services that ensure the priority positions of Russian companies in emerging markets.

Action plan ("road map") Neuronet

Regulatory roadmap

In 2017, the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 1184 of September 29, 2017 approved the Regulation on the development and implementation of action plans ("road maps") to improve legislation and eliminate administrative barriers in order to ensure the implementation of STI. The main executor for the implementation of the NTI "regulatory roadmaps" identified working groups and the NTI infrastructure centers being created

"Regulatory roadmap" Neuronet

The Neuronet Roadmap was approved by Protocol No. 1 of 02/28/2022 by absentee voting of the members of the Presidium of the Government Commission for Economic Modernization and Innovative Development of Russia.

https :// nti2035.ru/docs/ДК%20Нейронет.pdf

APPENDIX No. 4
to the minutes of the meeting of the Interdepartmental Working Group on Development and Implementation National Technology Initiative Under the Government Commission for Economic Modernization and Innovative Development of Russia
No. 1 dated January 21 , 2021

Action plan ("road map")
National Technology Initiative
Neuronet

I. Passport of the action plan ("road map")

Name of the working group
(head and (or) co-heads of the working group)
Neuronet

Responsible federalexecutive authority
Ministry of Education and Science of Russia

Interested federal executive authorities
Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia, Ministry of Labor of Russia,
Ministry of Finance of Russia, Fund for Assistance to the Development
of Small Forms of Enterprises in the Scientific and Technical Sphere, JSC "RVC"

The objectives of the action plan (roadmap) are to form a globally competitive Russian segment of the Neural network market by 2035, ensuring the emergence of at least 10 national "champion companies"

List of target indicators of the action plan ("roadmap")

Target indicator 1. "Number of Neural networks Centers";
Target indicator 2. "Number of laboratories in Neural Network Centers";
Target 3. "Number of clubs of young neuromodelists";
Target 4. "Number of PCT foreign applications";
Target 5. "The number of small enterprises in the Neuronet market";
Target indicator 6. "The number of medium-sized enterprises in the Neuronet market";
Target indicator 7. "The volume of the Russian market";
Target 8. "Export volume Russian high-tech products for DC Neuronet".

Stages and terms of implementation of the first stage (2016-2018)
Second stage (2019-2025)
The third stage (2026-2035)


Directions of implementation of the action plan ("roadmap")
"Neuromedtechnics";
"Neuropharma";
"Neuroeducation";
"Neuro-entertainment and sports";
"Neurocommunications and marketing";
"NeuroAssistant"

The total amount of financial support for the main stages, including the assessment of the volume of state support implementation of measures
10.5 billion rubles

II. Targets and indicators of the action plan ("roadmap")

1. A brief description of the scope of the implementation of the action plan ("road map"), including information about the markets arising from the implementation of the action plan ("road map"), changes in the industries within the scope of the implementation of the action plan ("road map"), information about the expected socio-economic effects of the implementation of the action plan ("road map") in the medium and long term and on measures to improvement of legal and technical regulation in order to ensure the implementation of the action plan ("roadmap").

1.1.Brief description of the emerging market

The next technological revolution will be associated with Neural network technologies and a significant increase in labor productivity, including through the integration of knowledge about the functions of the human brain and its capabilities with computers and the digital technosphere as a whole.

The neural network will become the next stage of the Internet development, in which the interaction of participants ("human-human", "human-machine") will be carried out using new neurocomputer interfaces in addition to traditional ones, and computers will become neuromorphic (similar to the brain) based on hybrid digital-analog architectures.

In addition to the above trends, the emergence of social neural networks and full-fledged hybrid human-machine intelligence is predicted.

The use of Neuronet technologies in the field of education will dramatically increase the volume and speed of assimilation of new knowledge, while the development of technologies in the field of neurofitness, optimization of perception and memory processes will lead to a significant strengthening and expansion of human cognitive abilities.

Application of Neuronet technologies in the field of neuroeconomics, neuro-communications and marketing, integration of advanced scientific
developments in the field of neurocognitive sciences that determine patterns of human behavior, and data processing technologies by means of AI it will create platforms and services to support accepted business decisions of various directions, from the management of specific business processes to the management of social capital of subjects of economic and state interaction. This will increase the efficiency and competitiveness of the economy, accelerate economic growth and improve the quality of life and personal well-being of a person.

In the field of medicine, technologies will be created that allow the use of artificial limbs and expand human sensory capabilities. At the same time, effective targeted biomarkers and drugs for
the diagnosis, prevention and treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, including schizophrenia, depression, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease and other age-related dementias are expected to appear in the ten-year future.

Note: when implementing all the activities of the program, if necessary, assess the degree of impact of the trends of the Neuronet market segments on the Helsnet roadmap, and the Neuronet roadmap on the Helsnet roadmap (in terms of specialized products and technologies). ..."

[ "Helsnet" is the Russian one - but, obviously, it's not just her, it's all copied from WEF, MIT and so on - a roadmap for "healthcare" ("neuro" pills, vaxx, gene therapy, modification, etc.) ]

continues later..

So, in the roadmap that was approved a few days after the start of the "war":

Who are the key global actors and what is Rus ' attitude towards them?

https :// nti2035.ru/docs/ДК%20Нейронет.pdf
[pages 3 and 4]

"1.2. Description of the main participants of the emerging market
1.2.1. Key international participants of the emerging market

Technology companies, research centers, universities, foundations, regions, universities, corporations, etc. and the strategy of interaction with them. <--- [:oops::cool:]

Lundbeck, Biogen, UCB, Merck KGaA, Sanofi, Dainippon Sumitomo, Intuitive Surgical (Da Vinci), Hocoma (Lokomat, Armeo), Ekso Bionics, Cochlear Corporation, Canon, Emotiv, Facebook, Google, Go Pro, HTC, Microsoft, NeuroSky, Samsung, Sony, Neurosky, Interaxon (Muse), Macrotellect, GreatLakeNeuroTechnologies, G.Tec (Intendix), MyndPlay, Home Of Attention, Focus Pocus, BrightHouse (USA), Olson Zaltman Associates (USA), Neurosense Limited (UK), Nielsen (USA), NeurocoLtd. (UK), Neuro Insight (Australia), Retail Branding (Australia), Lucid Systems (USA), EmSence (USA), Google, Apple, Microsoft, IBM, Facebook, Baidu, Amazon, Nuance, Intelli-response, Next IT, Creative Virtual, SRI International"

[- I don't know why they wrote Facebook, Google and Microsoft twice, ask them. Will they "interact" with them a lot, double?-]

continues, page 4:
https :// nti2035.ru/docs/ДК%20Нейронет.pdf

"1.2.2. Key Russian participants of the emerging market

Technology companies, research centers, universities, foundations, regions, universities, corporations, etc. and the strategy of interaction with them.

NextGen LLC (hereditary neurodegenerative diseases), Avneiro (Alzheimer's disease, schizophrenia), Biointegrator (multiple sclerosis), Generium Medical and Biological Center, SilverpHarm Innovative Pharmaceutical Company LLC (neuropathies and demyelinating diseases of the peripheral nervous system), Medical Computer Systems LLC, LLC "Neurobotics", LLC "Neurosoft", LLC"Medicom-LTD", LLC "Mizar", LLC "ATES-Medica", LLC "Neurocom", LLC "Exoathlet", Fibrum, LLC "Bitronics", LLC "Neuromatics", LLC "Wikium", JSC "Neurotrend", LLC "Mind Mining", Yandex, LLC "Persona, GC Newvizhin, MDT, LLC"NeuroChat", LLC "Neurotonus", LLC "AI ES JI Neuro", Innopraktika,Seldon, Association "National Champions".

1.3. Information about the global context of the emergence of a new market
1.3.1. Global technological trends and transformational changes in traditional industries caused by the introduction of end-to-end technologies that are within the scope of the implementation of the action plan ("roadmap")

Trends and transformational changes in the directions: developments related to an orderly increase in the efficiency of the basic tasks of the market with the use of end-to-end technologies, the introduction of products to the market, applications and obtaining intellectual property rights, attracting financing for startups.

The increasing digitalization of all aspects of human life leads to the emergence of an increasing number of digital platforms (super applications) for the provision of services; the development of communications via the Internet, using various wearable devices leads to the need to create new human-machine means of communication.

These features of the development of the economy and human society are reflected in the emergence of new products and services around the world, an increase in investment in research and development, an increase in mentions in the media.

1.3.2. Global political, economic, social, environmental and regulatory trends

Strengthening the role of neurotechnologies in economic models of the future requires a separate close study. It seems most promising to further reduce the costs of process logistics, increase the share of remote communication, etc.

The strengthening of the role of neurotechnologies in the task of developing society is dictated by the need to provide quality services to the end user.

1.4. Segmentation of the emerging market, assessment of competitiveness and growth rates of segments in their current form

Key market segments:

"Neuromedtechnics";
"Neuropharma";
"Neuroeducation";
"Neuro-entertainment and sports";
"Neurocommunications and marketing";
"NeuroAssistant";

1.5. The main directions of the implementation of the action plan ("roadmap")
1.5.1. Creation, development and promotion of advanced technologies, products and services that ensure the priority positions of Russian companies in emerging global markets.

1) "Neuromedtechnics"

The market of artificial organs, prosthetic limbs and sensory organs, as well as neurorehabilitation systems is the forerunner of the NeuroMed Technology market.
By 2035, it is planned to develop prototypes of neural interfaces integrated into exoskeletons, prostheses, wheelchairs, and a smart home;
neurorehabilitation systems for recovery after stroke, brain injuries, neurodegenerative diseases;
neuromodulation devices for the treatment of a wide range of diseases of the nervous system.

Within the NeuroMed Technology segment to By 2035 , it is planned to introduce neuroprosthetics of sensory organs and limbs exceeding biological prototypes in their parameters; to create life support systems and brain interface, including in the future during its transplantation into an artificial body.

2) "Neuropharma"

The market of drugs for the treatment of diseases of the nervous system is the predecessor of the Neuro Pharma market, as it is mainly focused on the treatment of symptomatic nature. The products of the Neuro Pharma segment can be defined as means of restoring neurocognitive functions in neurological patients and means
of enhancing cognitive abilities in healthy people.

By 2035, a number of services will be provided in the Neuro Pharma market: early diagnosis, correction, treatment and prevention of diseases of the nervous system (such as Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, depressive states,schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, traumatic brain injury); strengthening
the cognitive abilities of healthy people, taking into account professional specialization and personal characteristics
.

3) "Neuroeducation"

In this case, we mean an education system based on patterns and the use of neurocognitive mechanisms for acquiring new knowledge, learning and memory, as well as data on individual human predispositions and brain plasticity, the use of neurocomputer interfaces, elements of virtual and augmented reality, hybrid intelligence.

Currently, the products and services of the market Neuroeducation is developing in such segments as distance learning
, lifelong learning, mass open online courses, blended learning, as well as innovative models of additional education.

The priorities are the creation of educational and laboratory places for schoolchildren and students based on neurotechnologies of enhanced perception, optimized memorization and enhancement of cognitive functions, and by 2035 - the full use of integrated systems of natural and artificial intelligence.


4) "Neuro-entertainment and sports"

The segment of neuro-entertainment and sports can be divided into the following sub-segments, which are already developing:

entertainment (games, entertainment gadgets, systems of interaction with virtual and augmented reality); biometrics (the market of wearable electronic devices);

evaluation devices and training of cognitive abilities;

devices for monitoring and tracking potentially dangerous psychoemotional states in real time;

devices for self-determination (conducting selections based on objective predisposition data based on EEG;

assistance in identifying optimal areas of effort;

analysis of the level of involvement;

a platform for the interaction of products within all segment projects, exchange, storage, analysis and provision of data;

non-invasive autonomous systems for obtaining biometric data from the nervous system and other physiological data.

The product of 2035 will be a large-scale gaming platform that constantly interacts with the user. The platform will continuously monitor functional, psycho-emotional states, assess the cognitive background of the user's current activity. Based on the data obtained, non-invasive stimulation of users will be carried out to achieve the necessary conditions. The platform will work according to the game format, the format of permanent trainings.

5) "Neurocommunications and marketing"

Today, the market of neuro-communication is in the process of formation. There are no comprehensive solutions in the world that allow for a full-fledged analysis of the process of perception by the consumer (user) of an ever-increasing information flow. At the same time, such information is needed, for example, for marketing research, the development of the film industry, political and social research, the creation of television content, independent projects (DYI), design, advertising.

By 2035 , the following products are projected to appear on the neuromarketing market:

automated systems for calculating neurometrics and systems for analyzing categories of states based on neurodata;

prototypes of cheap scalable systems for removing neurometrics (boxed solutions);

wearable devices for automatic detection of emotional status;

decision support systems;

human – pets communication systems;

neurocommunication systems "man–man", "man–machine", "man–society";


decision-making forecasting systems, social neural networks.


6) "NeuroAssistant"

The predecessor of the NeuroAssistant market is the market of the very first intelligent virtual assistants designed to understand the current needs of the user and search for solutions on the Internet, cloud services. The virtual assistant market covers the B2B and B2C sectors.

By 2035, the virtual assistant market will be a multi-level network of interacting intelligent services.

All together, electronic assistants will be part of the "global secretariat", minimizing all transaction costs for finding services, goods, personnel, coordinating the interests and personal schedules of employees and business partners. In these developing areas, there will be a tendency for a rapid increase in neuromorphic computing algorithms and
architectures
.

The transition from the predecessor markets to full-fledged segments of the neural network market can be carried out provided that the relevant technological barriers are overcome and the action plan is successfully implemented (section VI). The existing competitive advantages (scientific and technological background and experience of companies), as well as the experience of developing the IT market in Russia, indicate the possibility of implementing an innovative scenario for the development of the neural network market. Among the barriers facing the emerging market, it is worth noting not only scientific, technological and infrastructural, but also ethical restrictions that will be overcome if successful implementation of measures aimed, among other things, at popularizing the neural network market.
__
[- What are these guys talking about?! Covid "crisis"? "The climate crisis"? The financial, energy, "disinformation crisis"?! -]
__

1.5.2. Gradual improvement of the regulatory framework in order to eliminate barriers to the use of advanced technological solutions and create a system of incentives for their implementation

1.5.3. Improving the education system to meet the prospective staffing needs of dynamically developing companies, scientific and creative teams involved in the creation of new global markets


The main directions of the action plan ("roadmap")
1) "Improvement of the education system for directions 1)-6) of section 1.5.1"

A brief description of the direction of the action plan ("roadmap")
Improving the education system for all areas of the "roadmap". The reference segment is "Neuroeducation".

1.5.4. Development of the system of professional communities and popularization of the National Technological Initiative Title of the direction of the action plan ("roadmap")
1) "Popularization for directions 1)-6) of Section 1.5.1"

A brief description of the direction of the action plan ("roadmap")
A cross-cutting popularization event for all directions of the "roadmap"

1.5.5. Organizational, technical, expert and analytical support, information support of the National Technological Initiative

The name of the direction of the action plan ("road map")
1) "Organizational-technical and expert-analytical support, information support for directions 1)-6)
of section 1.5.1"

Brief description of the direction of the action plan
A cross-cutting event for all directions of the roadmap. Interaction with the NTI Working Group and the expert community of NTI "Neuronet"

1.5.6. Creation of acceleration mechanisms for companies of the National Technology Initiative and mechanisms for export promotion of the products being created

The name of the direction of the action plan ("roadmap")
1) "Acceleration of projects for directions 1)-6) of section 1.5.1"

A brief description of the direction of the action plan ("roadmap")
Measures to accelerate promising projects and technologies for all areas of the "roadmap" Measures to develop
cooperation with the Central Committee, CI, NSC, support for patenting.


1.6. Expected socio-economic effects from the implementation of the action plan ("roadmap") in the medium and long term

Effects

1. Increasing life expectancy through the development of innovative and import-substituting medicines for the diagnosis and treatment of the most common diseases
of the nervous system.

2. Improving the quality of life of people with disabilities and the disabled through the development of neuroprostheses of the upper extremities (bioprosthesis of the hand), locomotor-active prostheses of the lower extremities, receptors and elements of the sensory organs (cochlear implant, artificial retina) and the development of technological devices for the care and rehabilitation of patients, including a wheelchair with a control function via a neurointerface,
an exoskeleton brush for neurorehabilitation, etc.

3. Increasing the availability of medical services through the development of remote monitoring tools for patients in the treatment and rehabilitation of diseases of the nervous system in the clinic or at home.

4. Improving the quality of education through the development of new methods of early career guidance for schoolchildren and methods of "neurotraining" in educational programs.

5. Improving the quality of medical services in the treatment of diseases of the nervous system, preventing severe and irreversible changes in the brain and spinal cord in a number of pathological conditions and significantly improving the results of treatment and prevention of a number of acute and chronic brain and spinal cord injuries in high-risk groups.

6. Increasing the level of employment of the population by creating jobs in high-tech industries, expanding remote forms of joint activity, increasing the working age due to advances in the field of neural network technologies.

7. Increasing the number of highly qualified specialists in the field of neural network technologies (neurosurgery, neurobiology, diseases of the nervous system, neuroinformational technologies, materials science, robotics with neural interfaces).

8. Improving the quality of life of the population by creating software and hardware complexes for monitoring and tracking health and psycho-emotional states.

9. Digitalization of economic services using Neuronet technologies will reach at least 30% of the total quantity

10. Neuronet technologies will reduce social tension and its consequences arising in connection with the pandemic in 2020.

1.7. Measures to improve technical regulation in order to ensure the implementation of the action plan ("roadmap")

Within the framework of section 1.5.2
2. Information on strategic planning documents related to the category being developed at the federal level, according to the sectoral and territorial principle, as well as within the framework of forecasting, the provisions of which are taken into account when developing the action plan ("roadmap").

Support of the "market in exchange for innovation" directions
Support for the directions of technical transfer centers
Support for patenting, taking into account industry specifics within the segments of the Neuronet Roadmap (for example, the fight against "green patents" within the Neuropharma segment)."

________________
this is up to Page 11; continues later....

//Meanwhile, alternative media: "Russia is fighting the globalists/bankers/global trusts/WEF/Satanists/technocrats/ transhumanists! Russia defends traditional and Christian values. Putin takes care of his people!"
:rolleyes::D //
continuation
https :// nti2035.ru/docs/ДК%20Нейронет.pdf

page 13
1. Information about the scientific and technical reserve formed in the Russian Federation for the implementation of the action plan ("roadmap").

Russian scientific organizations have a significant scientific and technological reserve and the necessary competencies to implement the roadmap of the NeuroNet market. The main part of research in the field of neurotechnology in the Russian Federation is carried out in research institutes and universities. Commercial organizations actively participate in applied developments, they account for about 20% of the volume of research and development performed.

The total budget financing of projects in the field of neuroscience and neurotechnology with competitive instruments provided by executive authorities and development institutions in 2013-2015 amounted to about 3.6 billion rubles. The largest amount of support was provided within the framework of the Federal Target Program "Development of the pharmaceutical and Medical Industry of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020 and beyond" (1.2 billion rubles), the Russian Science Foundation (1 billion rubles) and within "Research and development in priority areas of development of the scientific and technological complex of Russia for 2014-2020" (0.9 billion rubles under the current and previous programs).

An analysis of the budget financing of research at various stages shows that applied research accounts for significantly less funding (0.6 billion rubles) than basic and exploratory research (1.35 billion rubles) and R&D (1.5 billion rubles).

With the support of the Ministry of Education and Science of Russia and the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia, drugs for treatment and diagnostic tools are being developed neurodegenerative diseases, drugs for the restoration of innervation, including preclinical and clinical studies are supported. Projects are being funded to develop radiopharmaceuticals aimed at diagnosing disorders of cerebral circulation.

Significant funding has been allocated for the development of brain-computer interfaces – at the same time, more than 10 projects are being implemented to develop medical complexes for rehabilitation, exoskeletons, and prostheses.

The instruments of the Ministry of Education and Science of Russia support projects aimed at the development of scientific infrastructure in the field of neurotechnology (the creation of scientific laboratories, the development of biological collections and unique scientific installations), funding in 2013-2015 amounted to about 0.6 billion rubles.

14
Research in the direction of basic biomorphic neural network architectures of artificial cognitive systems is carried out by a whole network of leading universities and research centers, institutes of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Fundamental and applied research in the field of the biology of the nerve cell, synaptic connection, neuroplasticity and the biological foundations of learning and memory are conducted by: The Scientific Center of Neurology of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, the Department of Neuroscience of the Kurchatov Institute Research Center, the Biological Faculties of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Lobachevsky Nizhny Novgorod State University, biologo-soil Faculty of St. Petersburg State University, A.B. Kogan Research Institute of Neurocybernetics of the Southern Federal University, Center for Neurocognitive Research Moscow City Psychological and Pedagogical University, Academician N.N. Burdenko Research Institute of Neurosurgery Institute of Higher Nervous Activity and Neurophysiology Russian Academy of Sciences, P.K. Anokhin Research Institute of Normal Physiology, Institute of Cytology of the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Cell Biophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Human Brain of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ioffe Institute of Physics and Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Kazan Institute of Biochemistry and Biophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Developments in the field of biological materials science (synthesis, crystallization, study of the structure and properties of biological objects) and organic systems are conducted at the A.V. Shubnikov Institute of Crystallography of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Neural architectures of the brain the brain and nervous system as a whole are studied in the works of the Department of Neuroscience The Kurchatov Institute Research Center, the Institute of Higher Nervous Activity and Neurophysiology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the P.K. Anokhin Research Institute of Normal Physiology of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, the I.P. Pavlov Institute of Physiology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Human Brain Institute Russian Academy of Sciences, A.B. Kogan Research Institute of Neurocybernetics of the Southern Federal University.

The organization of sensory systems and pattern recognition by living organisms is the subject of research by the I.P. Pavlov Institute of Physiology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Institute of Bioorganic Chemistry. Academicians M.M. Shemyakin and Yu.A. Ovchinnikov of the Russian Academy of Sciences, N.M. Emanuel Institute of Biochemical Physics Russian Academy of Sciences. Motor systems of living organisms are the subject of the works of the I.M. Sechenov Institute of Evolutionary Physiology and Biochemistry of the Russian Academy of Sciences, as well as the Institute of Immunology and Physiology of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The physiology of emotions is studied at the Institute of Higher Nervous Activity and Neurophysiology of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Neurogenetics and neurogenomics are the focus of the Scientific Center's activities Neurology of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Institute of Molecular Genetics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Gene Biology Russian Academy of Sciences, I.P. Pavlov Institute of Physiology Russian Academy of Sciences. The development, neurodegeneration and restoration of the nervous system are studied at the Scientific Center of Neurology of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, the N.K. Koltsov Institute of Developmental Biology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the I.M. Sechenov Institute of Evolutionary Physiology and Biochemistry of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Neural network models of information processing in brain structures are being created at the Institute of Mathematical Problems of Biology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Problems of Information Transmission named after
A. A. Harkevich of the Russian Academy of Sciences, A. B. Kogan Research Institute of Neurocybernetics of the Southern Federal University. These and a number of other laboratories of a comparable level represent a reserve on which you can rely with the participation of The Russian Federation in the deployment of a network of technology centers A world-class neural network.

Relatively actively developing areas related to IT within the framework of the neural network in Russia are areas in the field of artificial intelligence development and work with big data, semantics data processing, processing of arrays of biodata. They are well represented in a number of laboratories, and are also supported by some large companies.

Fundamental research in the field of neuroscience in the Russian Federation Federations are not sufficiently developed in comparison with the leading Western countries, although separate studies are being conducted to study the work of the brain, studies of the patterns of brain disease, single work in the field of optogenetics, single work in the field of neuroprosthetics.

2. Risk assessment of the implementation of the action plan ("roadmap") and information about the tools to minimize them.

Technological risks

1. Technological lag in the areas of neural network technologies, reduced activity or lack of activities aimed at technology transfer, the use of fundamental and applied research in the interests of market segments.

page 16

The way to minimize the risk is the successful implementation of the patent–related research program.

2. Technological lag in the development of products of market segments of the NeuroNet market (Neuropharma, Neuromedicine, Neuroeducation, neuro-communication and marketing, neuro-entertainment and sports, NeuroAssistents).

The way to minimize risk is to create an investment–attractive environment for the implementation of projects, the implementation of priority projects of market segments based on overcoming technological barriers and unique scientific achievements.

Macroeconomic risks

1. A decline in business activity and a slowdown in economic growth.

The way to minimize risk is to stimulate additional demand from the state and companies with state participation and implement measures aimed at introducing and popularizing products and technologies of the NeuroNet market, as well as measures aimed at developing the export of products of the NeuroNet market and import substitution.

Other risks

1. The lack of work with regulatory legal acts in terms of the sale of products and services created in the segments of the NeuroNet market.

The way to minimize risk is the implementation of coordinated measures aimed at improving the regulatory framework.

Due to the significant presence of a large number of foreign companies in traditional markets, special attention should be paid to the formation of the fundamental documents of the industry.

2. The absence (full or partial) of measures to support the implementation plan of measures (III) may lead to non-fulfillment of the Neuronet Roadmap

Ways to minimize risk – implementation of additional measures from the number of
Performers under section III.

page17

3. The risk of a shortage of professional staff.
The way to minimize risk is the development of a personnel training system based on the deployment of a mass movement of young neuromodelists, starting from school, creating conditions for the influx of personnel into a new industry, popularizing professions for a new technological way, creating coordination and educational centers.
...."
 

Lalas

Star
Joined
Nov 8, 2022
Messages
1,511
The thread continues here:
 
Top