From Tarek Cherkaoui
The all-out Israeli offensive in Gaza is the 4th one (2008, 2012, 2014). There is a big gap between the two camps: Israel is one of the strongest militaries in the region, while the Gazan resistance, encircled in a 365-square-km strip, is waging asymmetric warfare.
(1) As in the previous rounds, Tsahal aims to break the Gazans’ resolve (‘mowing the grass strategy’) to teach the Palestinians a painful lesson to become more ‘amenable’ at the negotiation table.
(2) Netanyahu aims to achieve tactical gains that ensure his political survival. Destroying high-value military targets & killing high ranked leaders in Gaza is top priority. It is unlikely, though, that Netanyahu risks a long war or a large land invasion.
(3) Previous wars, and especially 2014, revealed considerable Israeli weaknesses. A staunch resistance in Gaza managed to inflict serious damage to the Israeli infantry. 2 Israeli soldiers (Hadar Golden and Shaul Aaron) are still held in Gaza since 2014.
(4) The Gazan resistance, despite a choking blockade from Israel, Egypt, and the PA, grew in strength. The numbers, reach, and payload of Gazan missiles (2000 rockets in 3 days) has surprised many observers. While their military value is minimal, their psychological effect is not.
(5) The economic impact [on Israel] is substantial: losses amount to $912 m so far. Israeli strategists seem taken aback by the capacity of the resistance of piercing through the Iron Dom defence umbrella & striking Israeli targets within a 150 km radius.
(6) Israel lost the initiative. The Gazan resistance dictated the tempo. Conversely, Israeli strategists bet that the missile arsenal will soon be depleted. It remains to be seen whether the intelligence available is accurate.
(7) Netanyahu dealt with the Palestinians in a piecemeal manner (West Bank, Gaza, East Jerusalem, etc.), while avoiding the implementation of signed peace agreements & relying on irrelevant Arab governments (e.g., UAE) has backfired badly.
(8) Netanyahu's ‘civil war’ talk is inflaming the situation further, uniting Palestinians while Lynching mobs annihilated any reputation left of Israel’s democracy. Asymmetric warfare is about scoring political points. For now, the Gazan resistance seems to be leading the score.