The Gene Pool
In all communication systems, the encoding/decoding process of an idea starts
at the top, goes to the alphabet for encoding, and then the alphabetic/symbolic representation of the idea gets transmitted to the recipient, where it is subsequently decoded. As we know, information does NOT occur naturally and ALL information is based on language.
While language may take on many different forms, there is no other way to convey information from design to implementation aside from language. DNA is not only a language; it is the most exquisitely engineered communication protocol that anyone has ever seen. In humans, it is a three-billion lettered program communicating to the cell to carry out specific functions in a very calculated and specific way. And DNA is unrivaled in its sophistication, elegance, precision, repeatability and in its storage density.
Which begs the question: Does anyone
really believe that this highly complex, highly reliable molecular machinery could come about by chance or by random mutation? Without solid proof, wouldn't such a belief amount to a blind leap of faith?
It has been said that "...the point of evolutionary theory is to explain phenomena without having to appeal to intelligence or divine design". Indeed. That is
precisely the point and therein lies the fundamental flaw in reasoning.
Regardless of the field of study, the goal of all scientific research should be the pursuit of truth. We should all feel as Henry David Thoreau did when he said "Any Truth is better than make-believe…rather than love, than money, than fame, give me truth." So if someone rules out certain possibilities beforehand, how can their evaluation method be valid? How can any conclusions they may reach be objective? We have a long history of selfishly manipulating scientific theories into scientific “fact” only to have them later disproved when the truth can no longer remain hidden.
It is an established fact that ALL information is based on language and does NOT occur naturally. Information is neither matter nor energy and neither matter nor energy can produce information. Information CANNOT be created without intent, and intention (or will) is the property of a conscious mind, NOT the result of senseless, unconnected random mutations no one has ever observed and which have been proven to be impossible.
Impossible?
DNA carries the encoded hereditary assembly instructions in the form of base pairs or letters which form the connecting "rungs" of the double-helix ladder of life. Sections or "words" of DNA can be formed from these letters and are referred to as genes. Typically a single gene will code for a single protein chain.
In the smallest theoretical living thing, the average gene would still consist of over 1200 letters, or base pairs. For reference, the smallest living cell contains 600 genes while a set of human chromosomes consists of over 2 million genes. So what is the statistical probability of a series of the DNA code letters arranging themselves in order to form just one…JUST ONE…usable "word" (gene) by chance?
To give chance the best hope of success, the following assumptions have been made:
- All of the atoms in the entire cosmos have been made into base pairs and are ready and available for use/linking up.
- The linking/polymerization process will take place at the fastest known speed of atomic processes (estimated to be around 10^16 per second)
- At this polymerization rate, the number of complete chains/words (genes) per second is 8.3 x 10^12 in any one set. In a year, a set of nucleotides/base pairs would produce 2.6 x 10^20 genes, which we will round off to 10^21.
- Chance is trying for the first gene in the universe, so there is no pattern strand of DNA or RNA existing. The four different nucleotides will occur only in random order in the chain.
- If just one side of the ladder or double helix is obtained, it will be considered sufficient, in the thought that if one is obtained, the other side might form by base pairing.
- Nucleotides are made of atoms of carbon, nitrogen, hydrogen, oxygen, and phosphorus, of which phosphorus is the least plentiful and therefore the limiting element.
- There are estimated to be 1.5 x 10^72 phosphorus atoms in the universe, which will make 10^68 sets, so that one copy of each of the four kinds of nucleotides is present at each point of the 1,200-unit chain being formed.
- Three atoms of phosphorus are needed for each activated nucleotide. This will make 10^68 sets, so that if each set is producing 10^21 sequences per year, that will be a total of 10^89 different chains annually, using all of the appropriate atoms of the universe.
- Each chain will be dismantled immediately and another one built until there is a usable gene. This will be done at the prodigious speed of eight trillion chains per second.
- There are no duplicate codons.
- Nothing will interfere, so chance will have an ideal opportunity. And if a usable sequence is ever obtained, the action will stop so it may be preserved.
- The probability of getting a meaningful amino acid sequence to produce a usable protein for an amino acid chain 400 long is 1 in 4^400, which is equal to 1 in 10^240.
With 4 kinds of nucleotides and a chain 1200 units in length, the total possible arrangements would be 4^1200, which is approximately 10^722. The letters of a gene though are read in triplicate codons, comprising 64 kinds of triplets. A chain this size would contain 400 of these triplets, or 64^400 possible combinations, which is the same as figuring the possible orders by individual letter arrangements, namely 10^722.
Many of the twenty amino acids though are coded by more than one triplet, and though some believe these duplicate codons represent "historical accidents” or "junk DNA" there is a growing body of evidence that this isn't the case. If there is no such thing as junk DNA, the probability of a single gene arranging itself by chance in the entire universe is simply one chance in the total number of possible arrangements. In other words,
The probability of just one gene in the entire universe arranging itself by chance is 1 in 10^722.
Which could be expressed as 1/10^722, or 10^-722. But even if we assume that junk DNA does exist, and decided to treat all of the duplicate codons as if they were useless extras, the odds don't get much better. With only twenty-one different possible primary outcomes for each codon position (twenty amino acids plus the "end of the chain"), for a chain 400 amino acids long the potential outcomes are 21^400, which is approximately 10^528. Allowing one substitution per chain, the equivalent total of different sequences would reduce to 10^524.
Since this is still less likely than the sequencing to produce a single, usable protein, 1/10^240 will be used for the probability of obtaining a usable gene on any try for the very first gene. This probability reduces to 1/10^236 by allowing for one substitution. Multiplying this by the total orders produced in a year of all of the nucleotide sets from the entire cosmos, the probability of getting a usable gene in a year is 10^89/10^236, or 1/10^147. So with all of the concessions given in the list of assumptions above, a usable gene could be expected to occur in 10^147 years. And that's just to produce ONE gene working with all of the nucleotide sets of all of the atoms of the universe at incredible speed. Let's not forget that the smallest known cell has about 600 genes.
For reference, if we assume that the universe is 15 billion years old, we would need trillions of trillions of trillions of trillions...repeat this 12 times total...of times the assumed age of the universe to produce one gene by chance even working at the astronomical speed assumed. So anyone who mistakenly thinks that enough time can magically produce extremely improbable results is choosing to believe in a proven fantasy. The fallacy of such a mistaken belief lies in the size of the figures.
To better understand just how big a number like 10^147 really is, consider that one trillion trillion is only 10^24. Written out, 10^147 is a 1 followed by 147 zeros. And we're still talking about just ONE gene arranging itself by dumb luck during that period of time. Each subsequent gene match would be another order of magnitude less likely to occur. Common sense should make it clear that getting hundreds or even millions of genes to arrange themselves by chance given these odds is completely ridiculous. But does that mean life by the Darwinian evolutionary theory is absolutely impossible?